249
FXUS62 KMLB 210548
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1248 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
- PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
- A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS REMAINS AT
LOCAL AREA BEACHES
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY AND
EARLY MONDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 620 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPANSE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, SO DECIDED TO
ADD IN AREAS OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR
AND ALONG THE COAST FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD. LOCALLY DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS OF 1 MILE OR LESS.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS COULD LEAD TO IMPACTS DURING THE FRIDAY
MORNING COMMUTE, SO PLAN ACCORDINGLY AND ENSURE YOU PRACTICE
PROPER FOG SAFETY WHILE DRIVING. IF ENCOUNTERING REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, SLOW DOWN, USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS, AND LEAVE PLENTY
OF DISTANCE BETWEEN YOUR VEHICLE AND THE ONE IN FRONT OF YOU.
SOME GUIDANCE HAS HINTED AT MARINE FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SWAYED THE DECISION TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR AND UPDATE THE
FORECAST AS NEEDED. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS IS ANTICIPATED TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
NOW-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE PLEASANT,
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND WEST OF
DAYTONA BEACH AND ALSO ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ARE
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S IN MOST SPOTS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
BREEZE DEVELOPING AT THE COAST. THIS EVENING, TEMPS GRADUALLY FALL
INTO THE 60S, REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS PRESENT AND RECOVERING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY, SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG (AT MINIMUM) IS FORECAST. MODELS
HAVE BEEN A BIT OVERDONE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH REGARD TO
FOG POTENTIAL, THOUGH LAV GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A LITTLE GREATER
POSSIBILITY OF AREAWIDE FOG TONIGHT. KEEP THIS IN MIND BEFORE
HEADING OUT THE DOOR ON FRIDAY MORNING'S COMMUTE.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TOMORROW AND
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S FROM THE COAST TO THE INTERIOR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. A FEW MORE CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY, DUE TO SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE ABOVE 300MB. A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FRIDAY TURNS ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON, AND
THEN VEERS WESTERLY ON SATURDAY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
MORNING, PARTICULARLY OVER THE INTERIOR.
SUNDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN INTO SUNDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL FLORIDA. A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH IS FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING, EVENTUALLY VEERING
NORTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY LIGHT PRECIP IS
INDICATED BY A FEW MODELS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE SFC-800MB
LAYER MOISTENS A BIT. FOR NOW, THIS FORECAST INCLUDES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA; HOWEVER, MENTIONABLE ACCUMULATION WAS KEPT OUT OF THE
FORECAST. MONDAY MAY END UP A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER (UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S) BUT THE IMPACT OF THIS FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN MINIMAL.
TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
GRADUALLY VEERS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THE H5 RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD. OUR NEXT NOTABLE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE WEEK,
PERHAPS AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO THE
TIMING/SPEED OF THE FRONT'S APPROACH. FOR NOW, THE HOLIDAY LOOKS
TO BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES (SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTH OF I-4)
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TURN ONSHORE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY VEERING WESTERLY BY SATURDAY (LESS
THAN 10 KT). ON SUNDAY, A WEAKENED FRONT ARRIVES AND GRADUALLY
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS VEER N/NE SUNDAY AND E/NE
MONDAY (8-12 KT). SEAS 1-2 FT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, THEN 2-4 FT
INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED FROM KTIX NORTHWARD TO
KDAB AND WEST TO NEAR KSFB. PREDOMINANT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH 14-15Z FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
FOG BEGINS TO LIFT AND DIMINISH WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOG MAY
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OR SPREAD THROUGH TONIGHT, SO WILL MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL TAF UPDATES. HOWEVER, POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MORNING FRIDAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FL.
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 15Z FRIDAY, WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME E/NE ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 7-8
KNOTS WITH THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 80 59 81 63 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 83 60 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 80 61 81 62 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 81 61 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 82 59 82 63 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 82 60 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 82 61 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 82 60 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ041-046-
141-247-347-447.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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