147
FXUS62 KMLB 211728
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1228 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
- CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET ALBEIT ON THE WARM SIDE FOR LATE
NOVEMBER THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK, WITH MORNING FOG POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AS A WEAK
FRONT DELIVERS A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
TODAY-SATURDAY...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS FLATTENED BY A
SHORTWAVE TRANSITING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY THEN START TO DROP SOUTH SATURDAY, WHILE
ELONGATING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAKEN FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
OVERHEAD CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE,
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A MILE, BUT GENERALLY DON'T LOOK
TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FOG. CONFIDENCE WHERE AND WHEN FOG WILL
DEVELOP IS NOT THE HIGHEST. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR
ARE CONTINUING TO BE VERY AGGRESSIVE AND CALLING FOR DENSE FOG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WHICH HAS NOT PLAYED OUT THE PREVIOUS
SEVERAL MORNINGS. THEN ON THE OTHER HAND MOS/LAMP REMAINS MUCH
MORE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT CHANCES, WHICH HAS DONE WELL PREVIOUS
MORNINGS, BUT HAS BEEN PLAYING CATCH-UP TONIGHT. FOR THIS MORNING
EXPECT THE DENSE FOG IN VOLUSIA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SEMINOLE
TO REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL AREA AS A LIGHT OFFSHORE BREEZE
DEVELOPS, BUT LESS CERTAIN IF FOG IN NORTHERN BREVARD WILL SPREAD
SOUTH OR NOT, OR ADDITIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH IN
OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST COUNTIES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR VOLUSIA, SEMINOLE, AND NORTHERN BREVARD
COUNTIES, AND WILL BE EXTENDED AS NEEDED. FOR TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, CAN'T SAY MUCH MORE THAN AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. 00Z HREF IS SIGNALING
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR OSCEOLA AND PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT COUNTIES,
BUT EVEN HI-RES ENSEMBLE HAS BEEN FLIP- FLOPPING RUN TO RUN THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS, AND CONFIDENCE JUST ISN'T THERE TO INCLUDE
AREAS/DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY BUT AFTERNOONS WARM FOR LATE NOVEMBER, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE L-M80S (NORMAL HIGHS IN THE M-U70S), WHILE
MORNINGS REMAIN GENERALLY SEASONABLY COOL IN THE U50-L60S, A BIT
ON THE WARM SIDE IN COASTAL MARTIN REACHING THE M60S. A MODERATE
RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT THE BEACHES. ALWAYS
SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN GOES FOR A BIT OF A RIDE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AMPLIFIES SUNDAY, HELPING TO PUSH A WEAKENING FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE, THEN QUICKLY PUSHES OFFSHORE AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL DELIVER A BIT OF
ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT DON'T EXPECT MORE THAN A
COUPLE SHOWERS AS BEST (CHANCES 15% OR LESS) AND NO CHANCES FOR
LIGHTNING STORMS. WINDS REMAINS GENERALLY LIGHT, SHIFTING FROM
WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND SUNDAY, THEN
EASTERLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT. COOLING WILL BE MINIMAL, ONLY SHAVING A DEGREE OR TWO
OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS BRINGING THEM TO THE U70S-L80S BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, AND MORNING LOWS WILL ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO CREEP UP
TOWARDS THE L-M60S BY MONDAY MORNING AS FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE. FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE FRONT, THEN CHANCES
DECREASE MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...JUST AS QUICKLY AS RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN US
ARRIVED IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
LARGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING ACROSS THE CONUS. THE
SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING OVER FLORIDA WILL HAVE ALREADY PUSHED
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING, SHIFTING LOW LEVEL FLOW SOUTHERLY,
LIFTING THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, AND
RESUMING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ONSHORE MOVING MARINE SHOWERS. STUBBORN RIDGING OVER THE CARIBBEAN
LOOKS TO KEEP THE TROUGH FROM MAKING IT DOWN TO FLORIDA, CAUSING
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO BECOME STRUNG OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MIDWEEK AS IT OUTRUNS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THEN PUSHING
INTO FLORIDA LATE WEEK THANKS TO A SLUG OF HIGH PRESSURE DIVING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. BETTER AGREEMENT IN ARRIVAL TIME OF THE FRONT,
WITH BOTH THE ECM AND GFS BRINGING IT INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
THURSDAY, BUT THE GFS HAS CONSIDERABLY MORE MOISTURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND A STRONGER HIGH FOLLOWING THAN THE ECM, DECREASING
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES AND WHERE/IF THE FRONT STALLS LATE WEEK.
GFS POPS FOR THANKSGIVING ARE PRETTY AGGRESSIVE AT 20-50% ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA, WITH GFS MOS A LITTLE MORE SUBDUED AT 20-40%.
THE ECM IS MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC AT JUST 20% ACROSS THE SOUTH, AND
ECM MOS 15% OR LESS. OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS ECM, CALLING
FOR 10-20% RAIN CHANCES THANKSGIVING, HIGHEST TO THE SOUTH.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING SEASONABLE HOLIDAY TEMPERATURES, BUT TO
THE SOUTH TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL. BETTER CHANCES
FOR MORE MEANINGFUL COOLING FRIDAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER FLORIDA TODAY SHIFTS SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WEAKENING FRONT. THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY WITH LITTLE FANFARE, THEN LIFTS
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FROM MONDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY BECOME OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNING AT 10 KTS OR LESS, BUT COULD STILL BE SHIFTY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO A WEAK SEA BREEZE. WINDS GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH
TUESDAY, BECOMING NW-NE BEHIND SUNDAY'S FRONT, THEN NE-E MONDAY,
AND ESE-SE TUESDAY, AT 5-15 KTS, HIGHEST OFFSHORE. SEAS 1-3 FT.
HEAVY SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS AREN'T EXPECTED, BUT SOME LIGHT
MARINE SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FG OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND LIGHT WINDS SUPPORTS AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG, THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT ENTHUSED OVERALL.
THEREFORE, HAVE MAINTAINED THE INHERITED TEMPOS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM 9-13Z OVERNIGHT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN SPECIFICALLY
WHERE AND WHEN FG WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN
FUTURE UPDATES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNSET TONIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE
ALONG THE COAST FROM AROUND MLB SOUTHWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
LOOK TO PREVAIL SATURDAY, THOUGH REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS. ANOTHER WEAK
SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE SAME COASTAL TERMINALS
AFTER 16Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 59 82 63 80 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 61 83 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 62 81 62 80 / 0 0 0 10
VRB 61 81 60 81 / 0 0 0 10
LEE 59 83 63 82 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 61 83 63 82 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 62 83 64 82 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 60 81 59 81 / 0 0 0 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...LEAHY
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