715
FXUS62 KMLB 212005
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
305 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
- PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
BECOMING MORE SEASONABLE LATE WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
- A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY WITH THE
FRONT, OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
TODAY-SATURDAY... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HAS
FLATTENED TODAY DUE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND DEEP SOUTH, AND WILL REMAIN FLAT THROUGH SATURDAY. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY
WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH SATURDAY, WHILE ELONGATING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAKEN FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. LOCALLY, DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE WITH NO
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS OF 5 MPH OR
LESS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
TODAY VEERING WESTERLY ON SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME
VARIABLE AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ALONG THE COAST AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY, AND
LOW TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH SATURDAY. DUE TO THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER HEAD, PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, SO HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL
DEEPEN ON SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE CENTRAL US AND MOVE NORTHWARD,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST BY MIDWEEK. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GULF SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE OVER THE CARIBBEAN MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK AS THAT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE, A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
SUNDAY AS TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AMPLIFIES. LOCALLY,
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH THE FRONT, RESULTING
IN LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH THE FRONT (RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN
15 PERCENT). WINDS REMAINS GENERALLY LIGHT, SHIFTING FROM WESTERLY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. NO
NOTICEABLE COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ON SUNDAY. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN US. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD,
EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY, WITH THE AXIS REMAINING OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE WINDS
SHIFTING NORTHEAST TO EAST ON MONDAY AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AND TEMPERATURES BECOMING
WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S ON MONDAY WILL WARM UP TO LOW TO MID 80S BY MIDWEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND NORTHWARD TOWARDS
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY LATE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A STALLED COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US ON THURSDAY, PUSHING THE FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY,
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL VEER NORTH TO NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THURSDAY, WITH BOTH THE ECM AND GFS BRINGING IT INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, WITH THE GFS
REMAINING THE WETTER SOLUTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH A STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE ECM. HAVE CONTINUED TO
LEAN TOWARDS ECM FOR RAIN CHANCES INTO LATE WEEK, WITH A LOW (20
PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN THANKSGIVING (THURSDAY) ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA, AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARMER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES THEN BECOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY, WITH THE SOUTH BECOMING MORE SEASONABLE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS
THE NORTH, AND LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
TODAY- TUESDAY... (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) GENERALLY FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTS SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAKENING
FRONT. THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY WITH LITTLE FANFARE, THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FROM MONDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME OFFSHORE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AT 10 KTS OR LESS, BUT COULD STILL BE
SHIFTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A WEAK SEA BREEZE. WINDS GRADUALLY
VEER THROUGH TUESDAY, BECOMING NW-NE BEHIND SUNDAY'S FRONT, THEN NE-
E MONDAY, AND ESE-SE TUESDAY, AT 5-15 KTS, HIGHEST OFFSHORE. SEAS 1-
3 FT. HEAVY SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS AREN'T EXPECTED, BUT SOME
LIGHT MARINE SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FG OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND LIGHT WINDS SUPPORTS AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG, THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT ENTHUSED OVERALL.
THEREFORE, HAVE MAINTAINED THE INHERITED TEMPOS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM 9-13Z OVERNIGHT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN SPECIFICALLY
WHERE AND WHEN FG WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN
FUTURE UPDATES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNSET TONIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE
ALONG THE COAST FROM AROUND MLB SOUTHWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
LOOK TO PREVAIL SATURDAY, THOUGH REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS. ANOTHER WEAK
SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE SAME COASTAL TERMINALS
AFTER 16Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 59 82 63 80 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 61 83 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 62 81 62 80 / 0 0 0 10
VRB 61 81 60 81 / 0 0 0 10
LEE 59 83 63 82 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 61 83 63 82 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 62 83 64 82 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 60 81 59 81 / 0 0 0 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...LEAHY
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