329
FXUS62 KMLB 221744
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1244 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A MILE AT
TIMES IS OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
MORNING USE CAUTION ON THE ROADS.
- A SHOWER OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH, BUT OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
PERSIST INTO MID-WEEK.
- ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON THANKSGIVING DAY, BUT
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH, IF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT,
AND WHEN COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN US BEGINS TO AMPLIFY, BUILDING A TROUGH DOWN THE EAST
COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL US. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE FLORIDA IS SHUNTED SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK
FRONT, SHIFTING LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY MORNING WINDS OFFSHORE
LATER IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH, BUT REMAINING LIGHT AND
SHIFTY TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A WEAK
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN ARE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG THAT COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AND REDUCE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A MILE,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES DENSE FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO A
QUARTER MILE OR LESS GENERALLY EXTENDING FROM OSCEOLA, OKEECHOBEE,
AND BREVARD COUNTIES INTO PORTIONS OF THEIR ADJACENT COUNTIES.
NOT THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN EVOLUTION, AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE WHOLE AREA FOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY BEFORE THE MORNING IS OUT. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
BY 9 AM AT THE LATEST, WITH QUIET BUT WARM CONDITIONS THE REST OF
THE DAY. SEASONABLY COOL LOWS IN THE U50S-L60S WILL CLIMB INTO
THE M-U80S, WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR A COUPLE SPOTS. A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUES AT THE BEACHES. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD, AND NEVER
SWIM ALONE.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL DRIVE A
COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
THEN WASH OUT AS THE TROUGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. RIDGING ALOFT AND
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF TROUGH/FRONT
MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY, LIFTING THE RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. COOLING WILL BE MINIMAL, ONLY A FEW DEGREES
SHAVED OFF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE U70S-L80S. MORNING LOWS CONTINUE TO CLIMB WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE U50S-L60S SUNDAY MORNING TO THE L-M60S
MONDAY MORNING, AS WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT FROM WESTERLY SUNDAY TO
EASTERLY MONDAY. A LITTLE BIT OF ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DELIVERED BY THE FRONT COULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS, BUT
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FRONT SUNDAY MORNING, AND PERHAPS AGAIN MONDAY MORNING DEPENDING
HOW MUCH IS LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL HAVE ALREADY PUSHED OFFSHORE
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY TUESDAY MORNING, THEN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWS DOWN A BIT MID WEEK AS MULTIPLE LOBES OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CONSOLIDATE INTO A BROAD, DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN US MID TO LATE WEEK. WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL A BIT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, KEEPING US TENUOUSLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SURFACE HIGH AS THE TAIL OF THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS TO FLORIDA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON THANKSGIVING, AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY FRIDAY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY,
BUT RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY REMAIN UNCERTAIN. BOTH THE
ECM AND GFS ARE SHOWING NOTABLE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MID TO LATE WEEK, MUCH MORE FOR THE ECM THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
HAD A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY, BUT MOST NOTABLY
ECM MOS POPS FOR THANKSGIVING HAVE JUMPED FROM AROUND 10-20% IN
THE PREVIOUS 12Z GUIDANCE TO 20-40% IN THE CURRENT 00Z GUIDANCE.
GFS MOS POPS HAVE HELD RELATIVELY CONSISTENT AT 30-50%, BUT THERE
WAS SHIFT TO EARLIER IN THE MORNING. THE JUMPING AROUND DOESN'T
INSPIRE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE, SO FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OPTED TO
BLEND 01Z NBM/12Z MOS INTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND WILL SEE
HOW THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS TREND. BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TEMPERATURES, WITH VERY WARM CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
THEN ON THANKSGIVING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF STAYS WARM. MORE NOTABLE
COOL WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
FLORIDA AND THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO QUIETLY
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT REACHES THE EASTERN US MONDAY AND PUSHES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY, LIFTING THE RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH
AS A WARM IN THE PROCESS. FLORIDA AND THE LOCAL WATERS REMAIN
TENUOUSLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE THE DEPARTING HIGH UNTIL A LATE WEEK
COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY SHIFTY THROUGH THE PERIOD BETWEEN SEA BREEZES
AND FRONTS COMING AND GOING, BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING, OFFSHORE
WINDS TODAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY, THEN
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT 5-15 KTS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
(SUCH AS THEY ARE AT AROUND 10-20%) SUNDAY ONWARD AS THE WEAK
FRONT DELIVERS A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LIGHTNING STORMS AND
HEAVY SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FORECAST. SEAS 1-3 FT TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY BUILD TO 2-4 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON, AS EARLIER FG HAS
CLEARED. ADDITIONAL PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO.
HOWEVER, MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH WHERE AND EXACTLY WHEN
FG WILL BE DENSEST. THUS, HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPOS FOR 3SM AT ALL
TERMINALS FROM 9-12/13Z. ALTHOUGH, IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOULD GAIN CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY FOR FUTURE UPDATES. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY, WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE
ALONG THE COAST FROM TIX SOUTHWARD. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST SUNDAY, THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE MORNING HOURS. WIND SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER 10
KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 63 80 63 79 / 0 10 10 10
MCO 63 83 64 82 / 0 10 10 10
MLB 62 80 66 80 / 0 20 20 10
VRB 59 82 66 81 / 0 20 20 10
LEE 64 82 62 82 / 0 10 0 0
SFB 63 82 63 81 / 0 20 10 10
ORL 63 82 63 81 / 0 20 10 10
FPR 59 82 64 81 / 0 20 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...LEAHY
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