829
FXUS62 KMLB 230605
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
- PATCHY, LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
- ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH, BUT MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES THANKSGIVING DAY, BRINGING COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
NOW-TONIGHT...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON HAS HELPED BUMP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S AREAWIDE. A FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS FIELD CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE
TREASURE COAST. THERE, A DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE HAS FORMED AND IS
ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INLAND. A WEAK AND SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TREK IN OUR DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, LIGHT WINDS
AND INCREASED NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE BRING THE RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR
FOG AGAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW STRATUS MAY ALSO PUSH ACROSS
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-4 BEFORE SUNRISE, WHICH COULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON
FOG FORMATION. IF PLANNING TO TRAVEL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, USE
CAUTION WHEN ENCOUNTERING FOG ON AREA ROADWAYS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY WHILE A
WEAKENED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
BECOME LESS AND LESS DEFINED AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DO LOOK TO VEER NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FORECAST MAINTAINS THE CHANCE
FOR SPRINKLES ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND NOW INCLUDES A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AS INDICATED BY SHORT-RANGE MODELS.
LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED, AS
ANY SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED IN A RELATIVELY DRY
ENVIRONMENT (PW 1.1-1.2" AND DECREASING). DESPITE A FEW MORE CLOUDS
ON SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 80S,
SETTLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY BRINGS DAYTIME
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, JUST A TOUCH COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT AS ONSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY RESUMES. IT WOULD ALSO NOT BE
SURPRISING TO BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOG POTENTIAL WILL ALSO LINGER AROUND THE
FRONT MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...THE H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE
ALREADY PUSHED OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THEN, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SLOWS DOWN A BIT AS MULTIPLE LOBES OF
ENERGY CONSOLIDATE INTO A BROAD, DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. MID TO LATE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EXISTS THANKSGIVING DAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL, THOUGH SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. BETTER AGREEMENT EXISTS ON TEMPERATURES, WITH WARM
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FROM THANKSGIVING DAY INTO LATE WEEK. NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK UP A BIT MORE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
TOO, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
MOSTLY FAVORABLE BOATING WEATHER IS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LIGHT WINDS AND 1-3 FT (4 FT WELL OFFSHORE)
SEAS LINGER. A WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY, STALLING, THEN LIFTING NORTH OF THE WATERS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS VEER NORTH-NORTHEAST SUN.-MON. (10-12 KT OR LESS),
THEN TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY TUE.-WED. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE OR
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LESS
MODEL AGREEMENT ON ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BY MIDWEEK. A STRONGER FRONT
ARRIVES THANKSGIVING DAY, BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OOZING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AT LEAST MVFR-IFR CIG AND MVFR VIS IMPACTS AT
THE NORTHERN ECFL TERMINALS (KMCO/KISM-KTIX NORTH), AND THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP TO LIFR. THIS STRATUS DECK HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED IN NOFL, WITH OBS UP THERE REPORTING BKN-OVC 006-009
CEILINGS. A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN ARRIVAL TIMING, AND THE
06Z TAF PACKAGE TRENDS TOWARDS HREF/LAMP WHICH WAS GENERALLY ON
THE EARLIER SIDE, REACHING KDAB-KLEE WITH PREVAILING MVFR AND
TEMPO IFR AROUND 09Z, AND KMCO/KISM-KSFB WITH TEMPO MVFR AROUND
11Z. IF CONDITIONS DEVELOP SOONER ORLANDO AREA TERMINALS COULD SEE
MORE PREVAILING MVFR-IFR IMPACTS, AND IMPACTS WOULD PERSIST
LONGER AT ALL NORTHERN TERMINALS, AS LATE AS 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ONCE STRATUS BREAKS UP. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AS THEY
VEER NORTHERLY, WITH A WEAK AND LATE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
SHIFTING WINDS ONSHORE IN THE EVENING. THERE IS A VERY LOW (20% OR
LESS) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ONLY
GOOD ENOUGH FOR VCSH AT KDAB- KTIX, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A SHOWER AT
KMCO AND AREA TERMINALS. INLAND TERMINALS COULD SEE FOG AGAIN
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 81 63 78 64 / 20 20 10 10
MCO 82 64 81 64 / 10 10 10 10
MLB 81 66 80 66 / 10 20 20 10
VRB 82 65 81 65 / 10 20 20 10
LEE 81 62 81 62 / 10 10 10 10
SFB 82 63 81 64 / 20 20 10 10
ORL 81 64 81 64 / 10 10 10 10
FPR 82 63 81 64 / 10 20 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...HALEY
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