155
FXUS62 KMLB 240706
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
206 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 206 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025
- PATCHY, LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS WEEK.
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK,
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH EARLY ON THANKSGIVING,
LEADING TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK, WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025
TODAY-TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH,
EVENTUALLY STALLING ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS
MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND WILL
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH TUESDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THIS FRONT, MAINLY OVER THE WATERS.
HOWEVER, SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO PUSH ONSHORE, MAINLY
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL E/NE FLOW.
HAVE MAINTAINED RAIN CHANCES AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS THIS AREA
TODAY AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE,
IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. MAY BE A TAD
COOLER ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST TODAY, WHERE HIGHS ARE
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S. OTHERWISE, THE FRONT PROVIDES NO REAL
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES, WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT MAINTAINING
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TODAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
PATCHY, LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
LIGHTER LOW LEVEL WINDS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
THEN MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD AS A
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHES A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM OR TWO WILL ALSO
EXIST, MAINLY OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
A LITTLE HIGHER. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
HIGHS CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO WEDNESDAY, REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S.
MAX TEMPS THEN FALL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST, AND INTO
THE 70S FARTHER SOUTH AND INLAND, EXCEPT NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST. HIGHS
THEN FALL EVEN FURTHER INTO FRIDAY TO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S, AS A
NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZE CONTINUES TO USHER IN COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS. LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT,
BUT NORTHWEST OF I-4 MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL EVEN LOWER IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE FRONT
SATURDAY, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LEADING TO A BREEZY
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY THE COOL
AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL RISE TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
SATURDAY AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHTS. AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP, INITIALLY ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST SATURDAY AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FL SUNDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 206 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST. WEAK FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD AND STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST
WATERS THIS MORNING AND LINGERS THERE UNTIL IT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES
AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD TUESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS
FORECAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
TONIGHT. SEAS 1-3 FEET TODAY, INCREASING TO 2-4 FEET TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE AND ALSO ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
VOLUSIA WATERS.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH
MIDWEEK, WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-10
KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET. A STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY, WHICH
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL PRODUCE POOR TO
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS INTO LATE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS THURSDAY AND REMAIN BREEZY INTO FRIDAY,
BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A STORM OR TWO MAY ALSO POTENTIALLY
DEVELOP, MAINLY OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS AS FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS MORNING AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS IN CFL. CHANCES FOR MVFR VIS IMPACTS HAVE INCREASED
AT KMLB-KFPR, FROM 10% OR LESS IN 12Z HREF TO 20-40% IN 00Z HREF,
AND REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AT KMCO AND OTHER INLAND TERMINALS AT
10-30%, LOWEST AT KSFB. MODELS REMAIN INCONSISTENT WITH IFR VIS
POTENTIAL, AND MIFG CAUSING ERRONEOUS OBS ISN'T HELPING. DECENT
CONFIDENCE THE WORST OF THE STRATUS WILL STAY WEST OF THE ECFL
TERMINALS. KEPT TAFS VFR-MVFR FOR THIS PACKAGE, AND WILL AMD FOR
IFR CONDITIONS AS NEEDED. ANY FOG/STRATUS THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 14Z AT THE LATEST, IF NOT SOONER. THERE
IS A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INVOF KVRB-KSUA THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND MORNING, HIGHEST IN THE MORNING. LIGHT OVERNIGHT NNW-NE
WINDS SHIFT ENE 5-10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN
LATE THIS EVENING WHILE VEERING ESE-SE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 79 63 81 63 / 0 0 0 10
MCO 82 64 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 80 65 81 64 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 81 65 82 64 / 20 10 20 10
LEE 82 62 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 82 63 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 82 64 83 65 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 80 64 82 64 / 20 20 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...HALEY
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