883
FXUS62 KMLB 250815
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
- PATCHY, LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING.
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK,
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH EARLY ON THANKSGIVING,
LEADING TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
FURTHER SEAWARD AHEAD OF A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE CONUS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ELONGATE AS AN INITIALLY
DISORGANIZED PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST DEEPEN, WITH THE TAIL OF THE HIGH EXTENDING TOWARDS
FLORIDA. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF EARLY
MORNING PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA AS THE WASHED OUT REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONT CONTINUE TO
STRADDLE THE AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES THIS MORNING IN
PORTIONS OF VOLUSIA, LAKE, SEMINOLE, ORANGE, AND NORTHERN BREVARD
COUNTIES. VISIBILITY CAN QUICKLY REDUCE TO LESS THAN A MILE IN
LOCALLY DENSE FOG DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME VERY LOW (20% OR LESS) RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, WHICH COULD BRUSH THE
COAST, AND THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO
DEVELOP INLAND ON A PAIR OF VERY WEAK SEA BREEZES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
5-10 MPH SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK EAST COAST SEA BREEZE, RESUMING WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BRINGING AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE L-M80S AND
MORNING LOWS INTO THE L-U60S.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...TROUGHING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
WHILE SWINGING ACROSS THE EASTERN US, DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING
THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EAST-
NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FLORIDA WEDNESDAY, REACHING THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT,
AND PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH
LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES BUT WELCOME COOLING. SURFACE WINDS
WEDNESDAY VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BRINGING US THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEAK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE M80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AROUND 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND ROUGHLY 2-5 DEGREES SHORT OF DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR CONTEXT. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, WITH
AREAS UP NORTH STARTING OFF THE DAY IN THE U50S-L60S AND ONLY
WARMING TO THE U60S-L70S IN THE AFTERNOON, WHILE DOWN SOUTH
MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE M-U60S WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS GETTING INTO THE U70S-L80S (WHICH IS AT LEAST STILL AN
IMPROVEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY). NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH INLAND AND 10-15 MPH ALONG THE COAST,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS, BUT SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LIFTING FROM THE SOUTH KEEPS A LOW (20% TO
MAYBE 30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST BOTH DAYS.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND COULD SEE
SOME STRATUS AND FOG ACCOMPANY THE FRONT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...THE TROUGH ALOFT PUSHES OFFSHORE, TRAILING
GENERALLY ZONAL WITH MAYBE A HINT OF RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN US
IN ITS WAKE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM (POSSIBLY) DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL US. COOL,
BREEZY, AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SUNDAY ONWARD AS MODELS BEGIN TO
DISAGREE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. THE ECM FAVORS DEVELOPING A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL US THAT THE GFS KEEPS AS JUST A WEAK
SHORTWAVE, RESULTING IN THE ECM CONTINUING TO DEVELOP THE SURFACE
LOW AND POSSIBLY BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW WEAK AND DISORGANIZED,
THOUGH STILL BRINGING A WEAK FRONT TO THE AREA BY LIFTING THE
PREVIOUS FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, AS THIS SOLUTION KEEPS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR WARMING AND SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
LOOKS TO INCREASE ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
TODAY-WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LIFTS THE WASHED OUT FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE LOCAL WATERS NORTH TODAY.
THE HIGH WILL PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT, WITH THE TAIL OF THE HIGH CONTINUING TO EXTEND
BACK TO FLORIDA. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY SHIFT WESTERLY WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BRIEFLY BACKING SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH A WEAK EAST COAST SEA BREEZE, ALL AT 5-15 KTS. SEAS 2-3 FT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, AND A LIGHTNING STORM CAN'T BE
RULED OUT.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THURSDAY AS A
STRONG BUT MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FLORIDA AND THE
LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS
AND SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT, HIGHEST IN THE GULF STREAM. THESE WINDS
AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONT
DEPARTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS REMAIN POOR TO HAZARDOUS
INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH KEEPS A TIGHT PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA, VEERING 15-25 KTS
WINDS EASTERLY BY SATURDAY AND HOLDING SEAS AT 5-7 FT, AGAIN
HIGHEST IN THE GULF STREAM. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
LIGHTNING STORM ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
PATCHY TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOCUSED ACROSS MCO, ISM, AND SFB. IFR VIS REDUCTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES, WITH A TEMPO IN EFFECT FROM 10-13Z. DROP TO
MVFR VIS AT DAB AFTER 10Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FOG NEAR THE
REMAINING TERMINALS, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE NEAR TO SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING, PICKING UP
OUT OF THE SE AFTER 13Z. VCSH POSSIBLE AT FPR AND SUA, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 82 63 82 60 / 10 10 0 10
MCO 84 63 84 63 / 10 10 0 10
MLB 81 65 82 65 / 10 10 0 10
VRB 82 64 83 64 / 20 10 10 10
LEE 83 63 83 59 / 10 10 0 10
SFB 84 64 83 61 / 10 10 0 10
ORL 83 65 83 63 / 10 10 0 10
FPR 82 64 83 63 / 20 10 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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