449
FXUS62 KMLB 282330
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
630 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 630 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
- COOL AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. TURNING
WARMER OVERNIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF SHOWER.
- AT OUR BEACHES, A STRONG SOUTHWARD-FLOWING LONGSHORE CURRENT IS
PRESENT; THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS ALSO PERSIST. ROUGH SURF AT THE BEACHES WILL
EXIST ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZES.
- TURNING WARMER THIS WEEKEND. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES
ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY DROPPING IN A HURRY ACROSS THE DISTRICT,
INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS DROP WILL BE MORE DRAMATIC IN THE
EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OUT OVERNIGHT. OVER THE INTERIOR, EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S, COOLEST NORTHWEST OF ORLANDO. AT
THE COAST, A SHARP INVERSION IN THE LOWEST 1 KFT IS FORECAST TO
FORM THIS EVENING AS ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE
GROUND. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THROUGH THE NIGHT, THE WARM/MOIST ONSHORE
LAYER DEEPENS TOWARD THE SURFACE, WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A CLASSIC,
TIGHT TEMPERATURE DISCONTINUITY ALONG THE INTRACOASTAL.
BECAUSE OF THIS, OUR BARRIER ISLANDS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. RESIDENTS
BETWEEN I-95 AND THE INTRACOASTAL ARE LIKELY TO SEE A DROP IN
TEMPS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE START TO RISE LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT. SUFFICE TO SAY, ONCE THE SUN RISES TOMORROW,
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM ABOVE WHERE THEY WERE ALL DAY
TODAY.
WITH A MODEST LAYER OF MOISTURE COMING ONSHORE AT AROUND 3-5 KFT,
HAVE ADDED SPRINKLES AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, AT THE
COAST AND MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL, LATER ON TONIGHT AS
WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND THE LATEST
COLD FRONT, A CHILLY DAY OVERALL AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE BACK INTO
THE 60S AND WITH A BREEZY/GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND - IT FEELS EVEN
COOLER. FAIRLY STOUT HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TOWARD THE
DEEP SOUTH AND MID ATLC STATES AND IS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT (LOWER PRESSURES SOUTHWARD) ALLOWING FOR THE
ELEVATED WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH ARE OCCURRING - TYPICALLY
HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER DOWN THE
PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AT 925 MB VEER ONSHORE EARLY
TONIGHT AND A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY AT THE SURFACE (ALONG THE COAST)
OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH LOWS SHOULD REALIZE M-U40S NORTH/WEST OF I-4,
L50S SOUTHWARD TOWARD LAKE OKEE, AND M-U50S TOWARD THE COAST,
EXCEPT L60S ACROSS BARRIER ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST.
THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE A SOUTHWARD-FLOWING LONGSHORE
CURRENT WITHIN THE SURF ZONE, WHICH POSES A RISK TO THOSE ENTERING
THE OCEAN. A LONGSHORE CURRENT CAN PULL SWIMMERS INTO DEEPER WATER
AND POTENTIALLY EXPOSING THEM TO DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. IN ADDITION
TO THE LONGSHORE CURRENT, THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS. IF HEADING TO AREA BEACHES AND ENTERING THE CHILLY SURF,
BE SURE TO ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND HEED THE GUIDANCE OF
LOCAL BEACH SAFETY OFFICIALS.
SAT-SUN...THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE MID ATLC STATES GETS
NUDGED SEAWARD SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER LAND UNTIL SUN WHEN
MOISTURE BEGINS TO POOL NORTHWARD, AS WE KEEP A SMALL POP (20%)
ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST COUNTIES. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE AFTN SUN. WINDS VEERING ERLY BUT STILL 10-
15 MPH AND GUSTY ON SAT, WITH THE PGRAD FINALLY RELAXING INTO SUN,
THUS LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS (7-12 MPH) AND FEWER GUSTS. TEMPS BEGIN TO
TREND UPWARD WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M70S ON SAT AND BACK TO U70S TO
L80S ON SUN. MINS SAT OVERNIGHT/SUN MORNING IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND L-M60S ALONG THE COAST, EXCEPT U60S FOR
IMMEDIATE ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COASTS. MINS SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING IN
THE 60S NEARLY AREAWIDE, SAVE FOR SOME U50S IN PORTIONS OF NORTH
LAKE AND NW VOLUSIA COUNTIES.
A MODERATE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST AT AREA
BEACHES ON SAT. ALSO, WITH THE WIND FLOW VEERING ONSHORE, EXPECT
ROUGH SURF AS WELL.
MON-FRI...PREVIOUS MODIFIED...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AND LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED (15-26%) SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MON, WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING ON TUE (20-50% - HIGHEST I-4 CORRIDOR) AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
STORM DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME, SO WE CONTINUE TO KEEP ONLY
MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WARMING, WITH
HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S FOR MOST, PERHAPS M80S FOR PORTIONS OF
ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES ON TUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN STEADY
IN THE 60S FOR MON/TUE MORNINGS, COOLING INTO THE 50S TO L60S WED
MORNING (POST-FRONTAL). TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH. MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FROM WED-FRI, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 140 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES AREAWIDE. HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS THRU AT LEAST
THIS EVENING DUE TO GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-8 FT. SOME GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS EXPECTED. ONLY
MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS INTO SAT AS BOTH WINDS/SEAS ARE
SLOW TO DECREASE. POOR TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS REMAIN THRU SAT,
ESP OVER THE GULF STREAM WHERE WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER THIS EVENING, OVERNIGHT, AND
INTO SATURDAY (NE, ENE, E) WITH THE PGRAD SLOWLY RELAXING FURTHER
SAT NIGHT/SUN. BY LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN WE ARE HOPEFUL THAT ALL
REMAINING ADVISORIES AND/OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS WILL BE DROPPED.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. SEAS
COULD BUILD BACK TO 6 FT WELL OFFSHORE (NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET)
TUE-TUE NIGHT SURROUNDING THE NEXT FRONT. AN ONSHORE WIND
COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE INTO MON EVENING, THEN IS FORECAST TO
VEER FURTHER TO SOUTHERLY, THEN OF AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT TUE-WED
WITH APPROACH/EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE AGAIN AS EARLY AS
SUN, WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL ON TUE (PRE-FRONTAL). MODELS CONTINUE TO
SPEED UP THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS THE COLD FRONT IS NOW
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT, FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT MCO AND ALL AREA TERMINALS.
SOMEWHAT TRICKY WIND FORECAST ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SHARPENING
SURFACE TROUGH THAT SLOWLY MOVES INLAND OVER THE NEXT 12-15 HR.
AHEAD OF ITS PASSAGE, NW WINDS ARE FAVORED BUT THESE QUICKLY TURN
ENE AFTER IT PASSES TO THE WEST OF ANY COASTAL TERMINAL. SOME
VARIABILITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED. IN THE LOWEST 2 KFT, SOME
DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE NOTED AHEAD OF TROUGH PASSAGE AT
THE COAST. ALL SITES TURN ENE ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 140 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
SENSITIVE TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY LAKE
AND FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES. DRY AIR
HAS SETTLED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WHICH WILL CAUSE MINIMUM
RH VALUES TO FALL BELOW 35% FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THESE AREAS.
IN ADDITION, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL
PROMOTE NORTHERLY WINDS TO REACH 15 MPH AND GREATER AT TIMES WITH
HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY. THE ONLY CRITERIA NOT BEING MET FOR RED FLAG
WARNING ISSUANCE IS THE SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL, WHICH CONTINUES
TO REMAIN AT A "LOW" RISK FOR TODAY. SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE INTERIOR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 35-45%, WITH LOWER CONCERN ALONG THE COAST,
THOUGH THE BREEZY/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS COULD CREATE CONTAINMENT
CONCERNS SHOULD A FIRE IGNITE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 51 71 60 78 / 0 10 0 10
MCO 51 73 60 81 / 0 0 0 10
MLB 58 74 64 79 / 10 10 0 10
VRB 58 74 64 80 / 20 10 10 20
LEE 47 73 57 80 / 0 0 0 10
SFB 50 72 59 81 / 0 0 0 10
ORL 50 72 60 80 / 0 0 0 10
FPR 57 75 64 80 / 20 10 10 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ550-552-
570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ555-572-575.
UPDATE...HEIL
AVIATION...HEIL
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