463
FXUS62 KMLB 300520
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1220 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALSO CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT ISOLATED SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS DUE TO PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO TUESDAY, WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE,
AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MID TO LATE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
TONIGHT-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LIFTS
NE, WITH ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING, BUT WEAKENING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WILL
STILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THOUGH, WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW (20-30%), WITH THESE POPS
PRIMARILY FOCUSED NEAR TO SOUTH OF THE CAPE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY,
AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE COAST AND SPREADING INLAND TOWARD ORLANDO
ON MONDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND,
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG THE COAST TO MID
50S TO LOW 60S INLAND, AND THEN WILL GENERALLY RESIDE IN THE 60S
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
TUESDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT NE AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT A BAND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME TUESDAY, WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN (UP TO 60-70%) NEAR
TO NORTHWEST OF I-4, WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASING TO 30-50%
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOSTLY BE
SHOWERS, DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY, BUT LREF GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
AROUND 40-45% CHANCE FOR SBCAPE GREATER THAN 400 J/KG, SO ISOLATED
STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. INCREASING W/SW WINDS AS HIGH AS 35-45
KT BETWEEN 700-500MB NORTH OF MELBOURNE MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER
STORMS, WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40-55 MPH.
ANY STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY, WITH
VALUES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S, EXCEPT MID TO UPPER
50S NORTHWEST OF I-4.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO MID TO LATE WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY
WILL GRADUALLY VEER ONSHORE INTO LATE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN ANOTHER
APPROACHING FRONT WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
(POPS ~20-30%) ON SATURDAY. HIGHS FALL BACK INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND THEN RISE TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING AS EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS KEEP SEAS ELEVATED.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TREASURE COAST WATERS
THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY WATERS, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO THE BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS 4-6 FEET.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS, INITIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPE AND THEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT WILL STILL NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR LINGERING SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY, WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH BOATING
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING. S/SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, VEERING TO THE SW INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4-6 FEET TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH WINDS BECOME W/NW INITIALLY UP TO 15-20 KNOTS BUT
QUICKLY DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AS THEY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO GENERALLY
REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE N/NE INTO THURSDAY. SEAS UP TO 6
FEET WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT
THEN DECREASE TO 3-5 FEET INTO MIDWEEK.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AND THEN A BAND OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW STORMS WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TERMINALS. ENE WINDS ARE FORECAST GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 TO
10 KNOTS TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS
PERSIST FROM MLB SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER
00Z TONIGHT OUT OF THE NNE AROUND 5 KNOTS. RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE HAS HINTED AT LIGHT
SHOWERS FROM TIX SOUTHWARD. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
WITHIN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND AMEND AS
NEEDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 78 63 77 66 / 0 10 20 20
MCO 80 64 81 67 / 0 10 20 10
MLB 78 66 79 68 / 20 10 20 10
VRB 79 66 80 68 / 20 20 20 10
LEE 80 61 79 65 / 0 10 20 20
SFB 80 63 79 65 / 0 10 20 10
ORL 80 63 79 66 / 0 10 20 10
FPR 80 65 80 67 / 20 20 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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