018
FXUS62 KMLB 300726
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
226 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND, BUT ISOLATED SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS DUE TO
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
CAPE.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO TUESDAY, WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE,
AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MID TO LATE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE, INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON. RAP SOUNDING ANALYSIS INDICATES A
COLUMN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A LOW LEVEL RH AROUND 75-80%.
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHALLOW, ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS,
PARTICULARLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD. OUTSIDE OF A 20% POP
ACROSS SOUTHERN BREVARD AND THE TREASURE COAST COUNTIES, MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT SLIDES OFFSHORE THE EASTERN
U.S., EXTENDING ACROSS AREAS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF BY
MONDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, LIFTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL PULL A COLD FRONT MORE CLEANLY THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ON
MONDAY VEER OVERNIGHT, BECOMING BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ARE FORECAST
MONDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ALONG, NORTH AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM LAKE KISSIMMEE TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH (50-60%) WITH
LOWER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST (30-40%). SURFACE CAPE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED ON TUESDAY WITH GLOBAL MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER,
SOUTHWEST SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 35-40 KTS NEAR 700
MB WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CONDITIONAL STORM ENVIRONMENT. GUSTY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED GUSTY STORMS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ON MONDAY CONTINUE TO
TREND ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY, REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SPREAD THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND MID 60S ALONG THE COAST MONDAY MORNING, MORE WIDELY
RANGING THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ATTEMPTS
TO LOOSELY ORGANIZE OFFSHORE TEXAS ON THURSDAY, GRADUALLY TRAVELING
EAST-NORTHEAST AND EMERGING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY OR
ON SATURDAY. AN ATTACHED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS NEAR OR ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPING IT NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS HOLD
THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVER
NORTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES
(30-40%) NEAR, NORTH, AND WEST OF I-4 ON SATURDAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES BECOME COOLER WEDNESDAY, WIDELY SPREADING THE LOW 70S
ACROSS THE NORTH NEAR LEESBURG AND DAYTONA BEACH AND REACHING THE
LOW 80S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. GRADUAL
WARMING IS FORECAST EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S BY SATURDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
EAST WINDS 15-20 KTS DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. POOR
BOATING CONTINUES ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST GULF STREAM WATERS INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SEAS UP TO 6 FT SLOWLY SUBSIDE. OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS, FAVORABLE ATLANTIC
BOATING IS FORECAST MONDAY WITH SEAS 3-4 FT AND EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS 10-15 KTS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS
TUESDAY, INCREASING AND SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 15-20
KTS. IN RESPONSE, SEAS BUILD 4-5 FT, INCREASING UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE VOLUSIA WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS QUICKLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TERMINALS. ENE WINDS ARE FORECAST GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 TO
10 KNOTS TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS
PERSIST FROM MLB SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER
00Z TONIGHT OUT OF THE NNE AROUND 5 KNOTS. RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE HAS HINTED AT LIGHT
SHOWERS FROM TIX SOUTHWARD. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
WITHIN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND AMEND AS
NEEDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 78 63 77 66 / 0 10 20 20
MCO 80 64 81 67 / 0 10 20 10
MLB 78 66 79 68 / 20 10 20 10
VRB 79 66 80 68 / 20 20 20 10
LEE 80 61 79 65 / 0 10 20 20
SFB 80 63 79 65 / 0 10 20 10
ORL 80 63 79 66 / 0 10 20 10
FPR 80 65 80 67 / 20 20 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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