283
FXUS62 KMLB 301727
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1227 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND, BUT ISOLATED SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS DUE TO
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
CAPE.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO TUESDAY, WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE,
AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MID TO LATE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE, INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON. RAP SOUNDING ANALYSIS INDICATES A
COLUMN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A LOW LEVEL RH AROUND 75-80%.
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHALLOW, ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS,
PARTICULARLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD. OUTSIDE OF A 20% POP
ACROSS SOUTHERN BREVARD AND THE TREASURE COAST COUNTIES, MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT SLIDES OFFSHORE THE EASTERN
U.S., EXTENDING ACROSS AREAS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF BY
MONDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, LIFTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL PULL A COLD FRONT MORE CLEANLY THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ON
MONDAY VEER OVERNIGHT, BECOMING BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ARE FORECAST
MONDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ALONG, NORTH AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM LAKE KISSIMMEE TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH (50-60%) WITH
LOWER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST (30-40%). SURFACE CAPE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED ON TUESDAY WITH GLOBAL MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER,
SOUTHWEST SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 35-40 KTS NEAR 700
MB WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CONDITIONAL STORM ENVIRONMENT. GUSTY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED GUSTY STORMS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ON MONDAY CONTINUE TO
TREND ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY, REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SPREAD THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND MID 60S ALONG THE COAST MONDAY MORNING, MORE WIDELY
RANGING THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ATTEMPTS
TO LOOSELY ORGANIZE OFFSHORE TEXAS ON THURSDAY, GRADUALLY TRAVELING
EAST-NORTHEAST AND EMERGING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY OR
ON SATURDAY. AN ATTACHED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS NEAR OR ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPING IT NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS HOLD
THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVER
NORTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES
(30-40%) NEAR, NORTH, AND WEST OF I-4 ON SATURDAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES BECOME COOLER WEDNESDAY, WIDELY SPREADING THE LOW 70S
ACROSS THE NORTH NEAR LEESBURG AND DAYTONA BEACH AND REACHING THE
LOW 80S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. GRADUAL
WARMING IS FORECAST EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S BY SATURDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
EAST WINDS 15-20 KTS DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. POOR
BOATING CONTINUES ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST GULF STREAM WATERS INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SEAS UP TO 6 FT SLOWLY SUBSIDE. OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS, FAVORABLE ATLANTIC
BOATING IS FORECAST MONDAY WITH SEAS 3-4 FT AND EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS 10-15 KTS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS
TUESDAY, INCREASING AND SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 15-20
KTS. IN RESPONSE, SEAS BUILD 4-5 FT, INCREASING UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE VOLUSIA WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS QUICKLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST FROM MLB SOUTHWARD. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR
MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA, WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND INLAND ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR REDUCTIONS
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WHEN THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER REACHES A TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES, WITH
WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS EACH AFTERNOON AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 64 77 66 80 / 20 20 20 60
MCO 65 80 67 82 / 10 20 10 60
MLB 66 78 68 82 / 20 30 20 50
VRB 66 79 68 84 / 20 30 20 50
LEE 62 79 65 79 / 10 20 20 70
SFB 64 79 67 81 / 10 20 10 60
ORL 64 79 67 81 / 10 20 10 60
FPR 66 79 67 84 / 20 30 20 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...LEAHY
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