276
FXUS62 KMLB 011921
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
221 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 221 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL PUSH
QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST MID
TO LATE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO TONIGHT AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST SHIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AS THEY VEER FROM THE E/SE
THIS EVENING TO MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A
COASTAL FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WINDS
REMAIN ONSHORE, MAINLY FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE, IT WILL
BE MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
MOSTLY FAVOR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, BUT MAY STILL SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG FORM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING TUESDAY.
AS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST TOMORROW, MOISTURE WILL RISE WITH PW VALUES
REACHING 1.7-1.8 INCHES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION, MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT FROM OSCEOLA/BREVARD COUNTIES
NORTHWARD AND 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE
TREASURE COAST. DESPITE SBCAPE BEING SOMEWHAT LIMITED, AROUND OR
JUST UNDER 500 J/KG, ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ANY
STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40-55 MPH, AS SW WIND FIELDS BETWEEN 925-500MB
INCREASE TO AROUND 30-45 KNOTS NORTH OF THE TREASURE COAST AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. HOWEVER, EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS IT WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY TOMORROW, AS SW SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
15-20 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, WITH HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
SHOWERS AND ANY STORMS ARE FORECAST TO PUSH OFFSHORE BY EARLY
EVENING, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. WEST WINDS
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET TO 5-10 MPH AND GRADUALLY BECOME N/NW OVERNIGHT,
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS, EXCEPT MID TO
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST OF I-4 BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT MIDWEEK WILL WEAKEN AS ANOTHER STRONGER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THURSDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT COOLER/DRIER AIR DOWN INTO CENTRAL
FL, WITH WINDS THEN GRADUALLY VEERING ONSHORE INTO LATE WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY, BEFORE A WARMING
TREND ONCE AGAIN TAKES HOLD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 70S FROM OSCEOLA/BREVARD COUNTIES NORTHWARD AND UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST.
HIGHS THEN CLIMB INTO LATE WEEK, EVENTUALLY REACHING THE LOW 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY. COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S,
EXCEPT UPPER 40S NORTHWEST OF I-4. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL THEN
RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING QUICKLY EAST-
NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL FL FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT
ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING
BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF, WITH THE ECMWF FASTER AND PUSHING IT
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE GFS STALLING THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FL AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING IT SOUTHWARD INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. EITHER WAY RAIN CHANCES WILL AT LEAST BE
ON THE RISE INTO SATURDAY (UP TO 20-40 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA), AND
THEN THE FORECAST KEEPS SOME LOW END RAIN CHANCES (AROUND 20
PERCENT) FOR NOW INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
IN UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SATURDAY. THEN DEPENDING ON FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
FORECAST TO FALL BACK INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S BEHIND THE
FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 221 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY DRAGGING A FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING AS THEY VEER TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS, WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) INITIALLY
GOES INTO EFFECT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. THE SCA THEN EXPANDS TO THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY AND OFFSHORE TREASURE COAST WATERS AT 7
AM TUESDAY, WHILE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE.
THE SCA WILL THEN REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING TUESDAY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COUNTIES AS W/SW WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE. WINDS THEN BECOME N/NW
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS, WITH
SPEEDS DECREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS PUSHING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL THEN PERSIST OFFSHORE AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE MID TO LATE WEEK, AS WINDS SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS
AND SEAS FALL TO 3-5 FEET WED TO 3-4 FEET THU-FRI. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTH WED AND THEN VEER ONSHORE INTO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SAT, WITH BOATING CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE UP TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FEET.
IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ECFL TERMINALS TODAY AND THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR-IFR VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS
AFTER 08Z SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONT LIFTING INTO NOFL TONIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE WHERE/WHEN IMPACTS WILL MANIFEST AND WHETHER WE'LL HAVE
A COMBINATION OF STRATUS/FOG, OR ONE OR THE OTHER IS LOW. HREF
CALLS FOR MAINLY STRATUS TO LIFT NORTH FROM SOFL, REACHING KMCO
AND AREA TERMINALS AFTER 12Z, WHILE CONSENSUS IS GOING FOR A
TYPICAL WEST-SOUTH PROPAGATION OF COMBINATION STRATUS/FOG FROM
WCFL/NOFL AFTER 08Z. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY KEEPING THE
TAFS VFR FOR NOW WITH SCT008 AFTER 08Z AT TERMINALS WITH AT LEAST
20% CHANCE FOR IFR REDUCTIONS. MVFR-IFR IMPACTS MAY PERSIST AT
KMCO AND AREA TERMINALS AS LATE AS 19Z TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
BACK SOUTH INTO CFL. IN ADDITION, A LINE OF ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 15Z-21Z, BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON NE 10-15 KTS AND
GUSTY AT TIMES SHIFT SSW AROUND 5 KTS LATE TONIGHT, THEN QUICKLY
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS FROM THE WSW-SW WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KTS BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 65 81 57 70 / 10 40 10 0
MCO 67 81 62 74 / 10 40 10 0
MLB 67 82 63 75 / 20 40 10 0
VRB 67 83 63 77 / 20 30 10 0
LEE 65 80 57 70 / 10 50 10 0
SFB 66 81 60 72 / 10 40 10 0
ORL 66 81 60 72 / 10 40 10 0
FPR 66 83 63 78 / 20 30 10 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ550-
575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ570-
572.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...HALEY
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