304
FXUS62 KMLB 021120
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
620 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 230 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS EARLY THIS MORNING.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL PUSH
QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST MID TO LATE WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT.
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT...WHILE WE DO CARRY SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES, NOT CRAZY ABOUT THOSE PROSPECTS AS SOUTHERLY 20 KT
925 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE 25-35 KTS BY SUNRISE. THIS
WOULD TEND TO FAVOR LOW STRATUS OVER FOG. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL RACE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THROUGH THE DAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FL THIS
EVENING, FINALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF ECFL OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS WILL PRECEDE
THE FRONT DURING THE DAY, WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION ENDING
ACROSS LAND BY AROUND SUNSET AS SHOWERY PRECIP SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
POPS AT 40-50PCT OSCEOLA NORTHWARD, WITH 30PCT ACROSS THE COAST
AND 20PCT FOR MARTIN COUNTY. DUE TO THE ELEVATED WIND FIELDS,
PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY TO
STRONG WIND GUSTS (40-55 MPH) LOCALLY, AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICK MOVING AT 30 TO 40 MPH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. INSTABILITY REMAINS ONLY MARGINAL FOR THIS
EVENT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RATHER TIGHT TODAY WITH
BREEZY SWRLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS
- UP TO 30-35 MPH AT TIMES.
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS HIGHS REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE L-M80S (PRE-FRONTAL). BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL SINK INTO THE M50S NORTH/WEST OF I-4 WITH NEAR 60F TO L60S
SOUTHWARD. BARRIER ISLANDS LIKELY TO REALIZE M60S FOR MINS. W/NW
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN TO 5-10 MPH DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE PGRAD RELAXES.
WED-FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND MID
ATLC STATES BEHIND THE LATEST FRONT. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY DURING
THIS PERIOD. NW/N WINDS GIVE WAY TO AN ONSHORE COMPONENT WED
OVERNIGHT-THU OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS RESULTING. THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER TO S/SW INTO FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE NEXT POTENTIAL
WEATHER MAKER WILL, AGAIN, EVOLVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WITH LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF LATE THU/FRI. THIS
SHOULD DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE FL PANHANDLE/NORTH FL BY
SUNRISE SAT MORNING AS INCREASING MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
CLOSER TO SEASONAL HIGHS ON WED (POST-FRONTAL) WITH MAXES IN THE
L70S ACROSS I-4 AND M-U70S SOUTHWARD. A WARMING TREND SLOWLY GAINS
TRACTION ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U70S, EXCEPT L70S FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA. U70S TO L80S PREVAIL FRI AND PERHAPS A FEW M80S
SURROUNDING LAKE OKEE. FOR MINS, A CHILLY NIGHT WED NIGHT/THU
MORNING IN THE U40S TO AROUND 50F N/W OF I-4 WITH L-M50S MOST
EVERYWHERE ELSE, EXCEPT U50S AND A FEW L60S FOR COASTAL SOUTH
BREVARD AND E OF I-95 ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. FOR THU
OVERNIGHT/FRI MORNING - 50S AND L60S (COAST), AND GENERALLY 60S
AREAWIDE FRI OVERNIGHT/SAT MORNING.
SAT-MON...THE GFS NOW HOLDS UP THE NEXT FRONT ABOVE CENTRAL FL
FINALLY DRAGGING IT THRU DURING THE DAY ON SUN. FOR THE ECMWF, IT
APPEARS TO BRING THE FRONT ACROSS THE COVERAGE WARNING AREA SAT
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. REGARDLESS OF EVENTUAL SOLUTION, MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH POPS OF 30-40PCT ON SAT
DURING THE DAY NORTH OF A MELBOURNE-KENANSVILLE LINE, WITH 10-20PCT
POPS SOUTHWARD. GENERALLY 30-40PCT POPS ALMOST AREAWIDE SAT NIGHT,
THEN NEAR 40PCT FOR SUN. ISOLD THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT WE
HAVE YET TO INCLUDE THIS MENTION IN THE GRIDS/ZONES. THE NBM
KEEPS A SMALL POP IN FOR MON (FOR NOW) AND THIS MAY DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY MOISTURE IS ABLE TO SCOUR OUT. HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE U70S/L80S FOR SAT AND WILL LIKELY FALL BACK INTO
THE 70S (POST-FRONTAL) FOR SUN, WITH A COOLING TREND CONTINUING
INTO MON - U60S TO L70S FOR MAXES. LOWS IN THE U50S TO L60S SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING, AND GENERALLY 50S MOST EVERYWHERE SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...GOING TO BE BREEZY/GUSTY TODAY (PRE-FRONTAL) WITH
S/SW WINDS INCREASING 15-20 KTS, EXCEPT 20-25 KTS OFFSHORE WITH
FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS (25-30 KTS) AREAWIDE. THE FRONT WILL BE
PRECEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BY FAST, AND OFFSHORE-MOVING
(SW --> NE) SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS
POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE INCREASING WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE,
WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 35-45 KTS IN STORMS LATER TODAY.
OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS
ARE ADDITIONAL THREATS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH VEERING W/NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO
10-15 KTS AHEAD OF DAYBREAK WED MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL GO INTO EFFECT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OFFSHORE MARINE
LEGS AND NEAR SHORE VOLUSIA COAST. ADVISORIES SCALE BACK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVERYWHERE ELSE WILL CARRY CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INITIAL SEAS OF 3-5 FT AREAWIDE WILL
BUILD 5-7 FT OFFSHORE AND 4-5 FT NEAR SHORE. AS THE WINDS ARE
FAIRLY QUICK TO DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SO ARE
THE SEAS, AS THEY SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT AGAIN BY DAYBREAK WED MORNING.
WED-SAT...WINDS/SEAS, BOTH, BECOME FAVORABLE FROM MID-LATE WEEK AS
NORTHERLY (~ 10 KTS) WINDS ON WED VEER ONSHORE BY THU BECOMING
SOUTHERLY BY LATE FRI AND SWRLY BY FRI NIGHT/SAT. THE PGRAD MAY
TIGHTEN A BIT FRI NIGHT/SAT. SEAS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT
LATE WED INTO FRI, BUT MAY INCREASE TO 5 FT WELL OFFSHORE CAPE
NORTHWARD FRI NIGHT/SAT. GENERALLY DRY WED-FRI, BUT MAY SEE SOME
PRECIP CHANCES CREEP BACK INTO THE PICTURE FRI NIGHT-SAT AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT FOR LATER IN THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
VCSH EXPANDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TODAY, WITH VCTS POSSIBLE AT
THE INTERIOR TERMINALS AND DAB THROUGH MLB AS A FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SW AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, GUSTING
TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
TO DIMINISH AREAWIDE BY 00Z, WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. WINDS SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST, AND
THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AT
THE TERMINALS. KEPT OUT CIG REDUCTIONS, BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 82 57 71 53 / 30 10 0 0
MCO 82 61 74 54 / 40 10 0 0
MLB 83 62 76 57 / 30 10 0 0
VRB 84 63 77 57 / 30 10 0 0
LEE 81 56 71 51 / 50 10 0 0
SFB 82 59 73 52 / 40 10 0 0
ORL 81 60 73 54 / 40 10 0 0
FPR 84 62 78 57 / 30 10 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ550-
575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ570-572.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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