640
FXUS62 KMLB 030525
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1225 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
- DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. COOL
WEDNESDAY, THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- ANOTHER FRONT LATE THIS WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGS THE NEXT
CHANCES OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...BREEZY AND SLOPPY CONDITIONS EARLY TODAY
IMPROVE SOME, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
LIGHTNING STORM MARCHING ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
A FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE PENINSULA TONIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE APPROACHING FRONT AND ITS
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO EASE LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW DEPARTS.
MIDDLING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HAD
KEPT DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO JUST A COUPLE HEAVIER SHOWERS, BUT
SKIES HAVE CLEARED GOING INTO THE LATER AFTERNOON OFFERING SOME
DESTABILIZATION, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LINEAR
SHEAR, HAS BEEN SUPPORTING MORE SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION AT TIMES.
HOWEVER, WHILE INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED SOME, A BAND OF DRIER
AIR ABOVE 700MB SWINGING ACROSS THE PENINSULA HAS CREATED A NEW
HURDLE TO UPDRAFTS, AND STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THERE MIGHT BE TOO
MUCH SHEAR FOR THE INSTABILITY. ALL IN ALL, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING STILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE, AND WITH STORMS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST- NORTHEAST AT
30-40 MPH, IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO GET A STORM GUST TO 40-55 MPH.
AT LEAST THE QUICK STORM MOTION MEANS DOWNPOURS WILL BE BRIEF AND
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS MINIMAL (LESS THAN HALF AN INCH FOR EVEN
LOCATIONS THAT GET MULTIPLE ROUNDS). ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE L-M80S. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TAPER OFF AFTER PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING AS THE ONLY SOURCE OF INSTABILITY GOES TO BED. THE FRONT
THEN PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT, SCOURING OUT MOISTURE IN THE
PROCESS AND CLEARING OUT ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANCES. WE'LL START
TO COOL OFF TONIGHT, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE M50-M60S.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...FAIRLY PLEASANT THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND MID ATLANTIC BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY, THEN IS SHUFFLED OFFSHORE AND SOUTH THURSDAY BY A
LARGE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH PUSHING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, AND A STRUNG OUT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDING TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
SLIDE SOUTH FRIDAY AS THE GULF LOW SLIPS QUICKLY EASTWARD NORTH OF
US AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
NORTHERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH WEDNESDAY UNDER THE HIGH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE U60-L70S,
BUT CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE U40S-L60S. WE START WARMING BACK
UP THURSDAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT ONSHORE, BRINGING AFTERNOON
HIGHS UP TO THE 70S FOR EVERYONE AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE
M50-M60S, THEN QUICKLY WARMING FRIDAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT, AGAIN AT 5-10 MPH, BRINGING AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO THE U70S-L80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 60S.
SATURDAY-MONDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...GFS CONTINUES TO
BE SLOWER THAN THE ECM WITH EARLY NEXT WEEK'S FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE
FORMER PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY AND THE LATTER SUNDAY.
EITHER WAY, MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH POPS OF 30-40PCT ON SAT DURING THE DAY NORTH OF
A MELBOURNE-KENANSVILLE LINE AND 10-20PCT POPS SOUTHWARD,
INCREASING TO 30-50PCT ACROSS PRETTY MUCH THE WHOLE AREA SAT
NIGHT, THEN SETTLING NEAR 40PCT FOR SUN. ISOLD THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, BUT WE HAVE YET TO INCLUDE THIS MENTION IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES. GUIDANCE KEEPS A SMALL POP IN FOR MON (FOR NOW) DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AND
MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT. HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
U70S/L80S FOR SAT AND WILL LIKELY FALL BACK INTO THE 70S FOR SUN
(BETWEEN CLOUD COVER AND INFLUENCE FROM THE FASTER ECM SOLUTION),
WITH A COOLING TREND CONTINUING INTO MON - U60S TO M70S FOR MAXES.
LOWS IN THE U50S TO L60S SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING, AND GENERALLY 50S
MOST EVERYWHERE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
REST TODAY-TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BUT BOATING
CONDITIONS REMAIN AT BEST UNFAVORABLE AND GENERALLY POOR TO
HAZARDOUS. WINDS TOPPING OUT AT 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KTS FROM
THE SW THIS AFTERNOON EASE AND VEER THROUGH THE NIGHT, SETTLING
TO THE NNW-NW 10-15 KTS LATE TONIGHT. WAS ABLE TO CANCEL THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NEARSHORE VOLUSIA A BIT EARLY (SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION), BUT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR ALL CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH 4
PM, AND THE VOLUSIA-BREVARD SEGMENTS THROUGH 10 PM, THOUGH MAY BE
ABLE TO DROP THOSE SOONER AS WELL. SEAS 3-5 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-7
FT OFFSHORE SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN CHANCES
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. STORMS AND HEAVY SHOWERS WILL MOVE VERY
QUICKLY THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT OVER 25-35 KTS, INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR EVEN MODERATE CONVECTION TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH GUSTS OVER
35 KTS.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...WINDS AND SEAS
BECOME FAVORABLE FROM MID-LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. NORTHERLY (~ 10 KTS) WINDS ON WED VEER ONSHORE BY THU
BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY LATE FRI AND SWRLY BY FRI NIGHT/SAT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN A BIT FRI NIGHT/SAT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES NORTH OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL QUICKLY
SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT LATE WED INTO FRI, BUT MAY INCREASE TO 5 FT WELL
OFFSHORE CAPE NORTHWARD FRI NIGHT/SAT. GENERALLY DRY WED-FRI, BUT
MAY SEE SOME PRECIP CHANCES CREEP BACK INTO THE PICTURE FRI NIGHT-
SAT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT FOR
LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO MVFR/IFR AREAWIDE EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH OBSERVATIONS AT LEE AND DAB ALREADY SUPPORTING THIS. STRATUS
WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD, WITH TEMPOS IN EFFECT FROM 08-12Z FOR THE
LOWER CIGS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN LATE THIS
MORNING, WITH PREVAILING NNW WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 71 52 72 59 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 75 55 77 60 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 75 58 76 63 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 77 57 77 61 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 72 50 75 58 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 73 52 75 59 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 73 54 76 60 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 78 57 78 61 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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