790
FXUS62 KMLB 031125
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
625 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 230 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. COOL TODAY, THEN
WARMING THURSDAY-SATURDAY.
- ANOTHER FRONT LATE THIS WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGS THE NEXT
CHANCES OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH ECFL
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED HAS LONG
SINCE ENDED, BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE COVERAGE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. THIS LOW "GRUNGE"
MAY BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
IN CLOUD CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT EITHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH NW/N WINDS 5-10 MPH EXPECTED. LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WIND DIRECTION MAY VEER A BIT
MORE NNE ALONG THE COAST. A LIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF WIND
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS REMAIN MAINLY DRY. HIGHS COOLER
TODAY WITH L70S NORTH/WEST OF I-4, AND M-U70S SOUTHWARD -
POSSIBLY AROUND 80F ACROSS MARTIN AND SOUTHERN ST. LUCIE COUNTIES.
MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH FORECAST MINS IN THE U40S TO AROUND 50F
NORTH/WEST OF I-4 WITH L-M 50S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE, EXCEPT U50S
TO L60S IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.
THU-FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS, THOUGH CONDITIONS REMAIN
DRY THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS VEER NE/ENE 5-10 MPH, BUT WE MAY SEE A
DEGREE OF VARIABILITY FOR SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE ECFL INTERIOR ON
THU. LIGHT WINDS THU NIGHT, THEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
INTO FRI. THE NEXT POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
LATE THU/FRI. THIS SHOULD DRAG THE NEXT FRONT INTO THE FL PANHANDLE
BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING AS INCREASING MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THU/FRI WITH MAXES IN THE L-M70S ACROSS THE I-
4 CORRIDOR AND M-U70S SOUTHWARD - PERHAPS SOME 80 DEGREE READINGS
NEAR LAKE OKEE. NEAR 80F TO L80S PREVAIL FRI AND PERHAPS A FEW M80S
SURROUNDING LAKE OKEE. FOR MINS, SLIGHTLY WARMER THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING WITH M-U50S MOST EVERYWHERE, EXCEPT L60S CLOSER TOWARDS THE
COAST - M60S FOR BARRIER ISLANDS. GENERALLY L-M 60S AREAWIDE FRI
OVERNIGHT/SAT MORNING.
SAT-TUE...THE NEXT FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF ECFL THRU SAT, BUT DOES
MAKE SOME GRADUAL MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD SAT NIGHT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
FL PENINSULA. MOISTURE (PWATS 1.75-2.00") WILL CONTINUE TO POOL
ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SEEMINGLY
BRING THE BOUNDARY THRU THE AREA ON SUN AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. WE KEEP SCT (30-50%) SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST NEAR ORLANDO NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON SAT AND
VERO BEACH NORTHWARD SAT NIGHT (ISOLD, 10-24%, ELSEWHERE). THIS
SYSTEM IS SLOW TO SAG THRU THE AREA AND WE HAVE POPS 50% AREAWIDE
ON SUN AND 25-40% SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDER THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE IS A BIT SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
SOUTHWARD ON MON AND A 15-30PCT SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF ORLANDO FOR THIS DAY. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SETTLES IN
BEHIND THIS LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT.
HIGHS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE U70S/L80S (FEW M80S SOUTHWARD) FOR
SAT (PRE-FRONTAL). MAXES IN THE 70S MELBOURNE NORTHWARD ON SUN WITH
NEAR 80F TO L80S SOUTHWARD. COOLER YET ON MON/TUE (POST-FRONTAL) IN
THE U60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS I-4 WITH L70S SOUTHWARD - POSSIBLE
M70S FOR MARTIN COUNTY. LOWS IN THE 60S AREAWIDE SAT NIGHT/SUN
MORNING, AND GENERALLY 50S TO L60S FOR SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. A
REINFORCING "CLIPPER" FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE AREA LATE ON MON
DRIVING OVERNIGHT MINS FOR MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING INTO THE M-U40S TO
AROUND 50F FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA COAST WITH L-M 50S
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS, EXCEPT U50S FOR COASTAL
MARTIN COUNTY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...DEVELOPING POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW, WITH RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND NW/N
WINDS 7-11 KTS. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4 FT
OFFSHORE THRU THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY.
THU-SUN...A DEVELOPING LONG PERIOD ERLY SWELL ~10 SECONDS. WINDS AND
SEAS BECOME FAVORABLE FROM MID-LATE WEEK AS NORTHERLY (~ 10 KTS)
WINDS EARLY ON THU BEGIN TO VEER MORE ONSHORE THROUGH THE DAY AND
BECOMING SOUTHERLY THRU FRI AND S/SW FRI NIGHT/SAT AND MORE WRLY
DURING THE DAY ON SUN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE PGRAD MAY
TIGHTEN A BIT FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 15 KT SPEEDS WELL
OFFSHORE. SEAS 2-3 FT VERY NEAR SHORE THU-SAT, BUT MAY INCREASE TO 5
FT WELL OFFSHORE CAPE NORTHWARD SAT OVERNIGHT/SUN - POSSIBLY TO 6 FT
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. GENERALLY DRY THRU FRI NIGHT, BUT SCT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD LIGHTNING STORMS MAY ENTER THE PICTURE AGAIN SAT-SUN AS
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH APPROACHING FRONT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
MORNING, WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AT MOST TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS IMPROVING AFTER 16Z AREAWIDE, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. NNW WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR SETTLES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH
NO RAIN FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 71 52 72 59 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 75 55 77 60 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 75 58 76 63 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 77 57 77 61 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 72 50 75 58 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 73 52 75 59 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 73 54 76 60 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 78 57 78 61 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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