403
FXUS62 KMLB 191754
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1254 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 120 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS LINGER OFFSHORE THROUGH MID
MORNING, IMPROVING LATER TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND; MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES
- TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT BRINGS BREEZY AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK
- COLDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S, ACCOMPANIED BY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...FOR SOME PERSPECTIVE ON THIS SECOND-TO-LAST FRIDAY
IN 2025, NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS DATE RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S. WE
ARE STARTING THE DAY ABOUT TEN OR SO DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT, AND
IT DOES FEEL A BIT MUGGY STEPPING OUT THE DOOR. THIS WARMER AIR IS
SET TO BE REPLACED BY A COOLER AIRMASS, BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. CURRENTLY, A SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR NEW
ORLEANS TO THE APPALACHIANS, LED BY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HERE AT HOME, ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED
OFFSHORE IN THE PRESENCE OF NEARLY UNIFORM SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
(SFC-250MB).
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO CLOSELY PRECEDE AND THEN FOLLOW BEHIND
TODAY'S APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME LOW STRATUS
THROUGH SUNRISE AND PERHAPS A FEW LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DAYTIME MIXING AND OVERALL DRYING
BETWEEN 850-250MB WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY. ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS ARE FORECAST, REACHING THE UPPER 70S (NORTH)
TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 80S (SOUTH). AS THE FROPA OCCURS FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, SURFACE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY TICK UP TO 10-
15 MPH WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING MORE NW. WE WILL REALLY START TO
NOTICE THE COOLER AIR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTHWEST OF I-4 AND INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
OVER THE REMAINDER OF EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...QUASI-ZONAL 500MB FLOW RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WINS OUT OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. E/NE SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 10 MPH. A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY BE SPRINKLED IN UNDERNEATH A TRANSLUCENT
HIGH CLOUD DECK, ESPECIALLY FROM ORLANDO-CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD.
HOWEVER, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD FILTER THROUGH AND WARM US UP
INTO THE 70S/LOW 80S EACH AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLAY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT, RANGING
FROM THE LOW-MID 50S NORTH OF I-4 TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
EVERYWHERE ELSE (WARMEST ALONG THE TREASURE COAST). SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE
AREA, WHICH MAINLY SETS US UP FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEK.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE SET TO INCREASE ON
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THE ANTICIPATED
PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONSHORE-MOVING MARINE STRATOCU
AND SOME SHALLOW, ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODELS BRING LIGHT QPF TO
COASTAL AREAS WITH SOME ACTIVITY PUSHING FARTHER INLAND DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE REFLECTS A CONSENSUS
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND NBM06, PLUS SOME FINE TUNING OF 15-20% RAIN
CHANCES AT THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD VERY WELL LINGER INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY, THOUGH THIS
IS NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR NOW. DRIER
CONDITIONS RESUME MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT UNWINDS
AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER (OR JUST NORTH OF) THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD WILL NOT VARY ALL THAT MUCH, PERHAPS
WARMING BY A DEGREE OR TWO ONCE WE REACH CHRISTMAS DAY. ABOVE-NORMAL
VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S DURING THE DAY DROP INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST EACH NIGHT (LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE SOUTHERN BREVARD TO TREASURE
COASTS).
MARINE
ISSUED AT 120 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE
OFFSHORE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD WATERS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SEAS TO
7 FT (PERHAPS 8 FT WELL OFFSHORE) AND SW WINDS 15-24 KT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THERE. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD STILL EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE OFFSHORE TREASURE COAST WATERS
THROUGH MID MORNING.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND NORTH-NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES LARGELY END BY
LUNCHTIME AS DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTH OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. 5-
6 FT SEAS LINGER OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THROUGH TONIGHT,
REMAINING 3-5 FT EVERYWHERE ELSE.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
BOATING THIS WEEKEND WITH E TO NNE WINDS 5-12 KT. SEAS 3-5 FT
SATURDAY, FALLING TO 3-4 FT SUNDAY. THEN, WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS
BUILD BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. POOR TO
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DEVELOP EARLY WEEK WITH SEAS PEAKING 7-10 FT
MONDAY NIGHT. STOUT ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY GRADUALLY WEAKENS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, ALLOWING SEAS TO BEGIN SUBSIDING BY MID WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS LEAD TO SHALLOW, ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS
DEVELOPING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
COLD FRONT IS TRAVERSING CENTRAL FL AT 18Z WITH A GUSTY WEST FLOW
UP TO 20-22 KNOTS. THE EARLIER STRATUS HAS LARGELY BROKEN UP AS
DAYTIME HEATING HAS INCREASED MIXING HEIGHTS AND THEREFORE CLOUD
BASES. OCNL CIGS BTWN 030-040AGL WILL STILL OCCUR THRU 20Z BUT
OCCURRENCES SHOULD BE TOO BRIEF FOR TEMPOS. THE GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL PRODUCE A MINOR CROSSWIND ISSUE AT MCO THIS AFTERNOON BUT
GUSTINESS WILL SUBSIDE BY 22Z. WINDS TURN N/NW TONIGHT THEN NE SAT
WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 52 73 56 75 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 53 76 59 79 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 59 76 62 78 / 0 0 0 10
VRB 60 78 62 78 / 0 0 10 10
LEE 48 74 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 51 76 57 78 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 52 76 59 78 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 59 79 62 78 / 0 0 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...KELLY
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