154
FXUS62 KMLB 191930
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
- TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT BRINGS BREEZY AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- COLDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S, ACCOMPANIED BY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK.
- AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
AT ALL LOCAL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK; BOATING CONDITIONS DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, GENERALLY PASSING WITH LITTLE FANFARE ASIDE FROM CLEARING
SKIES, DROPPING DEWPOINTS, AND BREEZY WINDS BEHIND IT. WINDS VEER
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH FORECAST HIGHS
REMAINING ON TRACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. TONIGHT, NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH ALONG
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WHILE AREAS
SOUTHWARD FALL INTO THE 50S. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE BARRIER
ISLANDS (ESPECIALLY THE TREASURE COAST) MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE 60S
TONIGHT.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND, WITH A DRY AIR MASS
SETTLING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL HELP KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY LOCALLY, WITH NO RAIN FORECAST ON SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY. WINDS BECOME MORE EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND,
REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT, LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE 50S TO MID 60S, WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOCUSED ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AT THE
BEACHES, AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. AS ALWAYS, VISITORS TO THE LOCAL BEACHES
SHOULD SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL BEACH
SAFETY AUTHORITIES.
LATE SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A SLOW APPROACH
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SORT OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE
WILL BE AN UPTICK IN WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
MONDAY-THURSDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO MONDAY, WITH THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN WILL
FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONSHORE-MOVING MARINE STRATOCU AND SOME
SHALLOW, ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODELS BRING LIGHT QPF TO COASTAL AREAS
WITH SOME ACTIVITY PUSHING FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO
REFLECT A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND NBM06. THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD VERY WELL LINGER INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY, THOUGH
THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS ANY DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY OUT ACROSS
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. DRIER CONDITIONS RESUME MID TO LATE
WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT UNWINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER (OR JUST NORTH OF) THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD WILL NOT VARY ALL THAT MUCH,
PERHAPS WARMING BY A DEGREE OR TWO ONCE WE REACH CHRISTMAS DAY.
ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S DURING THE DAY DROP
INTO THE 50S FOR MOST EACH NIGHT (LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BREVARD TO TREASURE COASTS).
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS VEERING TO OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY REMAIN 3 TO 5 FEET, WITH THE HIGHER
SEAS PRIMARILY OUT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
SEAS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS, WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
PICKING UP TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
IN RESPONSE, SEAS RAPIDLY BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET ON MONDAY AND 6 TO
10 FEET ON TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS. WITH THE PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO SUBSIDE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS,
RESULTING IN FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
COLD FRONT IS TRAVERSING CENTRAL FL AT 18Z WITH A GUSTY WEST FLOW
UP TO 20-22 KNOTS. THE EARLIER STRATUS HAS LARGELY BROKEN UP AS
DAYTIME HEATING HAS INCREASED MIXING HEIGHTS AND THEREFORE CLOUD
BASES. OCNL CIGS BTWN 030-040AGL WILL STILL OCCUR THRU 20Z BUT
OCCURRENCES SHOULD BE TOO BRIEF FOR TEMPOS. THE GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL PRODUCE A MINOR CROSSWIND ISSUE AT MCO THIS AFTERNOON BUT
GUSTINESS WILL SUBSIDE BY 22Z. WINDS TURN N/NW TONIGHT THEN NE SAT
WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 52 73 56 75 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 53 76 59 79 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 59 76 62 78 / 0 0 0 10
VRB 60 78 62 78 / 0 0 10 10
LEE 48 74 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 51 76 57 78 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 52 76 59 78 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 59 79 62 78 / 0 0 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...KELLY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page