506
FXUS62 KMLB 210545
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1245 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 205 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
- PLEASANT CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THAT BRINGS BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
- DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST STARTING ON SUNDAY
NIGHT DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT,
WITH CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE MID TO LATE WEEK
- AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL
LOCAL AREA BEACHES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD.
LOCALLY, DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL, WITH NO
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT, BECOMING CALM IN SOME SPOTS.
THESE LIGHTER WINDS ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL
LEAD TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANY FOG THAT DOES
MANAGE TO DEVELOP IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH NEAR TO SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO FALL
INTO THE 50S, THOUGH THE TREASURE COAST WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL INTO
THE 60S. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES PERSIST INTO SUNDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ITS APPROACH TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA, THOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS PICK UP SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. LOWS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT, WITH MOST AREAS FALLING INTO THE 50S AND
AREAS NEAR THE TREASURE COAST REMAINING IN THE 60S.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY, WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN SETTLING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSIST LOCALLY, THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL TICK
UP SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AREAWIDE. GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS PREVAILING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY FAVOR SOME MARINE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT, WITH SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY ON WHETHER THESE SHOWERS
WILL MOVE ONSHORE. THE GFS MAINTAINS A DRIER SOLUTION ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA, WITH THE EURO FAVORING SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE. STUCK WITH THE NBM AS A
GOOD MIDDLE-OF-THE- ROAD SOLUTION, WHICH SHOWS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE WATERS BUT NOT NECESSARILY MAKING IT ONSHORE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARDS SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MOVING ONSHORE ON MONDAY, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE CAPE. BY TUESDAY,
DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE LOCAL WATERS, WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE 70S.
MONDAY NIGHT LOWS ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, COOLING
INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND THE LOW 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY (PREVIOUS)...WEDNESDAY PROMISES DRIER WEATHER
OVERALL AS THE H5 RIDGE AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF/CENTRAL CONUS. BY THURSDAY, GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON A
RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE H5 RIDGE, HEADING TOWARD THE ECFL
COAST. THIS IS A BIT OF A CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO OR SO.
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES WERE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME, BUT
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING COULD REINTRODUCE COASTAL
SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. BY WEEK'S END, LESS
MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
NEVERTHELESS, DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO PREVAIL WITH THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK WILL BE PLEASANT AND
LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM DAY TO DAY, RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES (SOUTH). OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS MID TO LATE WEEK. IN GENERAL, H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
HINTING AT A WARMER CHRISTMAS DAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
U.S. THIS YEAR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 205 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP BOATING
CONDITIONS GENERALLY FAVORABLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEKEND. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE FORECAST
ALONG WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET. RAIN IS NOT FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN ITS APPROACH TOWARDS THE
AREA, MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ON
MONDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS BEGIN INCREASING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY NIGHT, PEAKING AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY. IN RESPONSE, SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO 6 TO 10
FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THESE
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS A RESULT OF
THE PERSISTENT, BREEZY NORTHEAST FLOW. BY TUESDAY, WINDS SUBSIDE
AND VEER TO OUT OF THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SITUATES ITSELF NORTH
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SEAS RESPOND BY GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
LATE TUESDAY, WITH A RETURN TO GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH AT
SUA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
SKIRTING THE COAST FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SOME LOCAL GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES
REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST
TONIGHT WILL VEER MORE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 8-10 KT BY LATE
MORNING. WINDS THEN SHIFT NORTH AND DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KT OR
LESS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 74 57 75 61 / 0 10 10 10
MCO 78 58 77 62 / 0 0 10 10
MLB 78 63 77 64 / 0 10 20 20
VRB 79 64 78 64 / 10 10 20 20
LEE 77 53 76 59 / 0 0 10 10
SFB 78 57 77 61 / 0 10 10 10
ORL 78 58 77 62 / 0 0 10 10
FPR 79 63 78 64 / 10 10 20 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ550-552-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ570-572-575.
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...WATSON
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