694
FXUS62 KMLB 211754
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1254 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 205 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
- ANOTHER WARM AND PLEASANT DAY TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING AGAIN MID TO
LATE WEEK
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT ALL LOCAL AREA
BEACHES TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING FROM NEAR ORLANDO SOUTH TO MELBOURNE, VERO
BEACH, AND FORT PIERCE. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RESOLVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPMENT, SO PATCHY FOG WAS
MAINTAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR EAST-
CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER
QUICKLY, NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS INTACT OVER THE AREA TODAY WHILE A SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT DRIFTS TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (10 MPH OR LESS) FOR MOST LOCATIONS,
PICKING UP A BIT MORE ALONG THE COAST BY LATE EVENING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS (15-25% CHANCE) CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST, MAINLY FROM FORT PIERCE SOUTHWARD. A BATCH OR TWO OF
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL ROLL ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH MORE
LOW CLOUDS FORECAST TO THE SOUTH, IN ASSOCIATION WITH RAIN CHANCES.
OVERALL, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S AREAWIDE. TODAY IS THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SINK INTO THE LOW 50S TO MID 60S (WARMEST ON THE TREASURE COAST).
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS TODAY AT AREA BEACHES, SO BE
SURE TO SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER ENTER THE WATER ALONE.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEGIN
TO VEER NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH AXIS DEPARTS THE MID
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES AND MOVES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH ACROSS OUR AREA FROM AROUND
SUNRISE (NORTH) THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON (SOUTH). A TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. NORTHEAST WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY TO 10-15
MPH (15-20 MPH AT THE COAST) WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE FOR A MARINE STRATOCU
LAYER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
ONSHORE AND INLAND AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AND MOVING SOUTH WITH THE FRONT EARLY
TUESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT MONDAY, REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND ONLY FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S MONDAY NIGHT
(UPPER 50S IN NORTHWEST LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES).
BEACH CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS INCREASE AT
THE COAST. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, SO ENTERING THE WATER WILL NOT BE ADVISED.
WHILE A SHOWER MAY LINGER ALONG THE TREASURE COAST IN THE MORNING,
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS ALSO DECREASE
AS FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY, THOUGH A LIGHT BREEZE WILL LIKELY LINGER
SOUTH OF THE CAPE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST, SIMILAR TO MONDAY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S,
BUT COOLER AIR IS ON THE WAY TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S (LOW-MID 60S TREASURE COAST).
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. MID TO LATE WEEK, KEEPING LOCAL CONDITIONS TRANQUIL
OVERALL. RAIN CHANCES ARE LITTLE TO NOTHING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE CAPE. OTHERWISE,
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE RIDGE
WEAKENS A BIT AFTER FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES DEVELOP FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. NOTABLE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE OCCURS FROM SATURDAY-SUNDAY ONWARD, BUT WE SHOULD STAY DRY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT,
WE STAY STATUS QUO THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 205 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. SEAS 2-3 FT, UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-
15 KT, ESPECIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS
STEADILY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AND A FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. POOR BOATING
CONDITIONS ARRIVE BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH WINDS 15-20 KT AND
SEAS CLIMBING TO 4-6 FT.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL
SOUTHWARD. WINDS FRESHEN FROM THE GULF STREAM TO THE REMAINING
NEARSHORE WATERS BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, BUILDING
SEAS TO 6-8 FT BY SUNSET. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD IN RESPONSE TO
20- 25 KT WINDS, PEAKING AROUND 9 FT (PERHAPS 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE)
IN THE GULF STREAM EARLY TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
DISSIPATES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
WEAKENS, ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DECLINE. FOR NOW, A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MONDAY MORNING AND
EXPANDS TO INCLUDE THE NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. FINER
TUNING TO THE ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED IN FUTURE UPDATES,
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY
IN THE GULF STREAM.
A RETURN TO GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SEAS 3-5 FT WEDNESDAY FALL
TO 2-4 FT FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INSERTED VCSH AT SUA
THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLD ATLC SHOWERS. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
INCREASED NE WINDS/GUSTS ON MON BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MARINE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PUSH
ONSHORE AND WELL INLAND WITH BASES 035-055AGL AND OCNLY BKN. SOME
OF THIS STRATOCU WILL BE WET, CONTAINING ISOLD, FAST-MOVING SHRA
CROSSING THE COAST SO VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT TIX-MLB AT 15Z
AND MAY BE NEEDED FARTHER SOUTH (VRB-SUA) AND INLAND (MCO) MON
AFTN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 57 75 61 76 / 10 20 10 0
MCO 59 77 62 78 / 0 20 10 0
MLB 63 77 64 77 / 0 20 20 0
VRB 64 78 64 77 / 10 20 20 10
LEE 54 76 58 78 / 0 10 10 0
SFB 56 77 61 78 / 0 20 10 0
ORL 58 76 61 77 / 0 20 10 0
FPR 63 78 64 77 / 10 20 20 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ550-552-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ570-572-575.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...KELLY
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