034
FXUS62 KMLB 221725
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1225 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 207 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
- AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TODAY
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING MID TO LATE WEEK
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG WITH ROUGH SURF IS FORECAST
AT THE LOCAL BEACHES ON TODAY AND TUESDAY; ENTERING THE SURF IS
NOT ADVISED
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
TODAY-TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MAINE TODAY WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC INTO TUESDAY AS A NEW TROUGH
FORMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, CLEARING EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US TODAY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.
LOCALLY, NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH TODAY WITH GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST) AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME EASTERLY ON TUESDAY AND DECREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA SLACKENS.
BEACH CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS WINDS
INCREASE AT THE COAST. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL LOCAL BEACHES BOTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, ENTERING THE SURF IS NOT BE ADVISED!
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH FORECAST PW
VALUES INCREASING TO 0.8-1.0". THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MARINE STRATOCU AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
PUSHING ONSHORE AND INLAND AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING ACROSS THE AREA
AND LEAVING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. NO LIGHTNING STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BOTH
TODAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S,
EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NW PORTIONS OF LAKE/VOLUSIA
COUNTIES TONIGHT. COOLER AIR ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO FALL GENERALLY INTO THE 50S, EXCEPT LOW TO MID 60S SOUTH OF
CAPE CANAVERAL ALONG THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF AND
DEEP SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER NORTHEAST US AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY (THURSDAY). LOCALLY, THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO
NORTH EAST WINDS DOMINATING EACH DAY, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 MPH
OR LESS. DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, LEADING TO NO MENTIONABLE
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST, MAINLY NEAR THE TREASURE COAST, LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS, HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BOTH DAYS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE TURNING COOLER
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN US INTO THE
WEEKEND, EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF AND DEEP SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AFTER FRIDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES FROM THE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD,
MOVING INTO THE GULF AND THEN TX/LA BY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH LATE SUNDAY. LOCALLY, WINDS WILL SHIFT
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY, WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY, AND NORTH TO
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS. THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO FORM EACH DAY, TURNING THE WINDS
ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST AND PART WAY INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WITH NO
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S, WITH LOW 60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 207 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
TODAY-FRIDAY... DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY, MAINLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL
SOUTHWARD. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT IN THE
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 20-25 KT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BUILD THE SEAS TO 6-8 FT BY SUNSET, AND PEAKING
TO AROUND 9 FT TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, ALLOWING THE
WINDS TO DECREASE AND THE SEAS TO SUBSIDE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS STARTING THIS MORNING,
EXPANDING TO ALL THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY, GRADUALLY DROPPING AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST. SEAS 3-5 FT WEDNESDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW. BREEZY AND
GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS PERSIST AREAWIDE, WITH SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FORECAST. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIX SOUTHWARD TODAY, DIMINISHING
LATE TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW. WINDS
BECOME MORE EASTERLY AFTER 15Z TOMORROW, WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20 TO
22 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 61 76 55 75 / 20 0 0 0
MCO 62 78 57 78 / 20 0 0 0
MLB 65 77 60 76 / 30 10 0 0
VRB 64 77 60 78 / 30 10 0 0
LEE 59 79 55 78 / 10 0 0 0
SFB 61 78 56 78 / 20 0 0 0
ORL 61 78 57 78 / 20 0 0 0
FPR 65 77 59 78 / 30 20 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ572-575.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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