974
FXUS62 KMLB 230549
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1249 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 224 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
- HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS, ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING
TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND FADE INTO TONIGHT, WITH AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUING A BREEZY ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNSET. WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH INLAND THIS EVENING,
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM NEAR THE CAPE SOUTHWARD, EASTERLY
WINDS UP TO 15-20 MPH WILL STILL OCCUR INTO TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, MOSTLY LIGHT ONSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE BREEZY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER,
POPS REMAIN RATHER LOW, ONLY AROUND 20-30 PERCENT. A FEW ONSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY INTO
TOMORROW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG MUCH OF THE
COAST. HOWEVER, BEACHSIDE AREAS MAY MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
70S WHERE ONSHORE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ELEVATED. HIGHS INTO TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
WEDNESDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SHIFT
GRADUALLY EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK AND REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP CALM, DRY AND
OVERALL SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY,
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WITH LIGHTER WINDS
FORECAST, PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO THEN
APPROACH CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING, CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE LIMITED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE. NBM
GUIDANCE AND OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS HIGHS DROPPING ONLY SLIGHTLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY, IN THE LOW 70S, BUT SOME OF THE
EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE IS EVEN A LITTLE COOLER. SO THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 224 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT, AND THEN RANGE FROM POOR TO HAZARDOUS
TUESDAY. A FRESH TO STRONG ONSHORE BREEZE, WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20-25
KNOTS, WILL BUILD SEAS TO 7-9 FEET TONIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS THEN
DIMINISH TO 10-20 KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING, BUT REMAINING UP TO 6-
8 FEET. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) OFFSHORE EXPANDS TO
INCLUDE THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS INTO TONIGHT. THE SCA THEN IS
EVENTUALLY SCALED BACK TO ONLY INCLUDE THE TREASURE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY WATERS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT, AND
POTENTIALLY CONTINUING ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST WATERS TUESDAY
MORNING.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. N/NE
WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH FROM 3-5 FEET WEDNESDAY, TO 2-4 FEET INTO LATE WEEK, AND
THEN INCREASE BACK TO 3-5 FEET ON SATURDAY. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY OVER THE WATERS, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
MAINLY VFR TO CONTINUE THRU THE TAF PERIOD. ISO. -SHRA ARE MOVING
E-W NEAR MCO BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO THE TERMINAL. SCT-BKN
030-060 PERSIST AND WILL THRU AT LEAST 15Z BEFORE GRADUAL CLEARING
BEGINS NORTH TO SOUTH. FEW/SCT CU 035-045 WILL REMAIN BEFORE MOST
SITES TREND TOWARD SKC AFTER 00Z WED. INTRODUCED HINT OF BR AT MCO
WED. MORNING AS PROBS EXIST FOR SOME FOG MCO/ISM TO LEE.
NNE WINDS 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT INLAND WITH PERSISTENT 15-20 KT
MLB TO SUA (GUSTS TO 25 KT). E WINDS GENERALLY 7-10 KT AFTER 15Z,
EXCEPT MLB TO SUA (10-13 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 76 56 76 56 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 78 58 78 58 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 77 60 76 58 / 10 0 0 0
VRB 77 60 78 58 / 10 0 0 0
LEE 79 56 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 78 56 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 78 58 78 58 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 77 59 78 58 / 20 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ552-
570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ555-572-
575.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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