157
FXUS62 KMLB 230644
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
144 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WITH ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE TODAY, BEFORE IMPROVING TONIGHT.
- ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY
ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST, AND ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT GENERALLY
SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TODAY, DEEPENING AS IT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN US TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE TODAY BEFORE MOVING NORTHWEST INTO GA/AL
TONIGHT. LOCALLY, NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER MORE EASTERLY TODAY
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS FROM WHAT IT WAS YESTERDAY. ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE TREASURE
COAST TODAY AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
BEACH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POOR TODAY AS WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL LOCAL BEACHES TODAY. BECAUSE
OF THIS, ENTERING THE SURF IS NOT BE ADVISED! TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL GENERALLY INTO THE 50S, EXCEPT LOW TO MID
60S SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL ALONG THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF AND
DEEP SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER NORTHEAST US AND OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON CHRISTMAS DAY (THURSDAY). LOCALLY, THIS WILL RESULT
IN NORTH TO NORTH EAST WINDS DOMINATING EACH DAY, WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS. DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, LEADING
TO NO MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST, MAINLY NEAR THE TREASURE COAST, LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS, HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE TURNING COOLER ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
FRIDAY-MONDAY... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN US INTO THE
WEEKEND, EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF AND DEEP SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AFTER FRIDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES FROM THE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US. AT THE SURFACE, AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THEN INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
LOCALLY, WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY ON FRIDAY, WEST TO NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST ON MONDAY, WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS, EXCEPT ON MONDAY, WHEN WINDS INCREASE TO
10-15 MPH. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO FORM EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TURNING THE WINDS ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST AND
PART WAY INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS ON MONDAY, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 50S, WITH LOW 60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
TODAY-SATURDAY... POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING BEFORE THE SCA WILL EVENTUALLY GET
SCALED BACK TO ONLY INCLUDE THE TREASURE COAST AND OFFSHORE
BREVARD WATERS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO 10-20 KT THIS MORNING AND THEN LESS THAN 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING, BUT REMAINING UP TO 6-8 FEET. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TREASURE
COAST WATERS AND FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AT
TIMES. SEAS 3-5 FT WEDNESDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD BACK UP TO 5FT IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
MAINLY VFR TO CONTINUE THRU THE TAF PERIOD. ISO. -SHRA ARE MOVING
E-W NEAR MCO BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO THE TERMINAL. SCT-BKN
030-060 PERSIST AND WILL THRU AT LEAST 15Z BEFORE GRADUAL CLEARING
BEGINS NORTH TO SOUTH. FEW/SCT CU 035-045 WILL REMAIN BEFORE MOST
SITES TREND TOWARD SKC AFTER 00Z WED. INTRODUCED HINT OF BR AT MCO
WED. MORNING AS PROBS EXIST FOR SOME FOG MCO/ISM TO LEE.
NNE WINDS 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT INLAND WITH PERSISTENT 15-20 KT
MLB TO SUA (GUSTS TO 25 KT). E WINDS GENERALLY 7-10 KT AFTER 15Z,
EXCEPT MLB TO SUA (10-13 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 76 56 76 56 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 78 58 78 58 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 77 60 76 58 / 10 0 0 0
VRB 77 60 78 58 / 10 0 0 0
LEE 79 56 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 78 56 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 78 58 78 58 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 77 59 78 58 / 20 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ552-
570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ555-572-
575.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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