342
FXUS62 KMLB 240517
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1217 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING, AS DOES A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES.
- DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS MOVING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
TONIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA INITIALLY
SLIDES SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TOMORROW BEFORE IT
GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS
WILL PRODUCE A GENERALLY LIGHT N/NE FLOW INTO TOMORROW THAT WILL
BECOME N/NW INTO THURSDAY, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5-10 MPH. DESPITE THE
NORTHERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF NUDGES EASTWARD INTO
FLORIDA. FOR MOST OF THE AREA, MORNING LOWS WILL START OFF IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL, WITH SKIES MOSTLY TO PARTLY
SUNNY.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FOR OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG
THAT MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE AS DAYTIME
HEATING KICKS IN.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF SHIFTS EASTWARD
AND ACROSS FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
(IN THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST) EACH DAY. MORNING LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE 50S, AS WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN
SOME SPOTS DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, MAINLY IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES AS 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY STILL LOOK
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS
THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN, AND THEN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP
INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. NW WINDS UP TO
10 MPH, WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER, WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS
THE MID TO UPPER 30S CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS N/NW FLOW
PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY, HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER
50S NEAR TO NORTH OF ORLANDO AND LOW TO MID 60S SOUTH.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE
MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
THIS FAR OUT, WITH GFS SHOWING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER LAND AND
THE ECMWF INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL WITH
THIS BOUNDARY INTO MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, ANY QPF STILL
LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIGHT. FOR NOW, HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...WHILE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT,
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE TREASURE COAST
WATERS AND OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY WATERS THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING
FOR LINGERING SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
BREVARD COUNTY AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY, SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SEAS UP TO 6 FEET THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING, CAUTION HEADLINES WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE GULF STREAM WATERS AS SEAS UP TO 6 FEET WILL
PERSIST. E/NE WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WILL BECOME N/NW NORTH OF THE
CAPE AND NE SOUTH OF THE CAPE OVERNIGHT. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH N/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 3-5
FEET. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE
FROM CHRISTMAS AND INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH WIND SPEEDS BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS RANGING FROM 2-4 FEET LATE
WEEK, UP TO 3-5 FEET SATURDAY AND BACK TO 2-4 FEET SUNDAY. WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL VARY, OUT OF THE N/NW THURSDAY AND THEN BECOMING
GENERALLY OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FLORIDA, WITH OFFSHORE WINDS INCREASING UP TO
15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF VOLUSIA
COUNTY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED
MORNING (GENERALLY AFTER 08Z) ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
HAVE KEPT INHERITED TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS FROM MCO/ISM
NORTHWARD, WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS TO TIX/MLB. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. REGARDLESS, ANY FG/BR
IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY AROUND 13-14Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN
PREVAILING. N/NE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 76 56 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 79 58 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 77 58 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 77 57 78 55 / 10 10 0 0
LEE 79 56 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 79 56 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 79 58 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 77 56 78 55 / 10 10 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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