844
FXUS62 KMLB 241747
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1247 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 213 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
- PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING, AS WELL AS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FORECAST ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST TONIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS MOVING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
TODAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF AND DEEP
SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER NORTHEAST US AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON CHRISTMAS DAY
(THURSDAY). LOCALLY, THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTH EAST WINDS
DOMINATING EACH DAY, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS. DRIER AIR
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
DRY LAYER IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THIS, MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE (PW VALUES AROUND 0.8") ALONG
WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA, AN ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWER, OR SPRINKLE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS AND PUSH ONSHORE,
MAINLY ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST, LATE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, NO MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES OVER LAND AREAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BOTH DAYS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT, BEFORE TURNING COOLER ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. PATCHY FOG IS
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL AS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TONIGHT, AND GENERALLY NORTH OF MARTIN
COUNTY ON THURSDAY NIGHT. IF YOU ENCOUNTER FOG WHILE DRIVING,
REMEMBER TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON YOUR HEADLIGHTS!
FRIDAY-SUNDAY... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN US INTO THE
WEEKEND, EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY
AS ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF AND DEEP SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AFTER FRIDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES FROM THE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US. AT THE SURFACE, AXIS OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THEN INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. LOCALLY, WINDS
WILL SHIFT WESTERLY ON FRIDAY, AND WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS. THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO FORM EACH DAY, TURNING THE WINDS
ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST AND PART WAY INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
MONDAY-TUESDAY... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY WILL LIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD TO NEW BRUNSWICK AND NOVA SCOTIA
TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BEHIND THE FRONT. LOCALLY, WINDS WILL
SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHWEST ON MONDAY, AND MORE NORTHERLY ON TUESDAY,
WITH SPEEDS AT 10-15 MPH ON MONDAY, AND GENERALLY 10 MPH ON TUESDAY
EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY, WITH NO MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
OVER LAND AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. MODEL DISAGREEMENTS
CONTINUE HOWEVER, WITH THE GFS SHOWING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER
LAND AND THE ECMWF INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE
RAINFALL WITH THIS BOUNDARY INTO MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. FOR NOW,
HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, WITH LAND AREAS REMAINING DRY.
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY STILL LOOK TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ON MONDAY, WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER HIGHS ON TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO MID
60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE TURNING
EVEN COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. DUE TO THE NW
WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH OVERNIGHT MONDAY, WIND CHILLS ARE
FORECAST AS LOW AS THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
TODAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF AND DEEP
SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER NORTHEAST US AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON CHRISTMAS DAY
(THURSDAY). LOCALLY, THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTH EAST WINDS
DOMINATING EACH DAY, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS. DRIER AIR
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
DRY LAYER IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THIS, MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE (PW VALUES AROUND 0.8") ALONG
WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA, AN ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWER, OR SPRINKLE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS AND PUSH ONSHORE,
MAINLY ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST, LATE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, NO MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES OVER LAND AREAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BOTH DAYS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT, BEFORE TURNING COOLER ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. PATCHY FOG IS
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL AS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TONIGHT, AND GENERALLY NORTH OF MARTIN
COUNTY ON THURSDAY NIGHT. IF YOU ENCOUNTER FOG WHILE DRIVING,
REMEMBER TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON YOUR HEADLIGHTS!
FRIDAY-SUNDAY... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN US INTO THE
WEEKEND, EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY
AS ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF AND DEEP SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AFTER FRIDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES FROM THE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US. AT THE SURFACE, AXIS OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN US. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THEN INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. LOCALLY, WINDS
WILL SHIFT WESTERLY ON FRIDAY, AND WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS. THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO FORM EACH DAY, TURNING THE WINDS
ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST AND PART WAY INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
MONDAY-TUESDAY... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY WILL LIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD TO NEW BRUNSWICK AND NOVA SCOTIA
TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BEHIND THE FRONT. LOCALLY, WINDS WILL
SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHWEST ON MONDAY, AND MORE NORTHERLY ON TUESDAY,
WITH SPEEDS AT 10-15 MPH ON MONDAY, AND GENERALLY 10 MPH ON TUESDAY
EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY, WITH NO MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
OVER LAND AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. MODEL DISAGREEMENTS
CONTINUE HOWEVER, WITH THE GFS SHOWING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER
LAND AND THE ECMWF INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE
RAINFALL WITH THIS BOUNDARY INTO MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. FOR NOW,
HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, WITH LAND AREAS REMAINING DRY.
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY STILL LOOK TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ON MONDAY, WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER HIGHS ON TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO MID
60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE TURNING
EVEN COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. DUE TO THE NW
WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH OVERNIGHT MONDAY, WIND CHILLS ARE
FORECAST AS LOW AS THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 213 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
TODAY-SUNDAY... BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY,
WITH GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY WILL BACK NORTH TO NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY, WEST TO NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND WEST TO
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WINDS VEER WEST TO NORTHWEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS POTENTIALLY PUSHING ONSHORE, MAINLY ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST, LATE TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. SEAS 3-5 FT TODAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD BACK UP TO 5FT IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS ON SATURDAY. SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE TO 2-4FT ON ON
SUNDAY BEFORE BUILDING UP TO 6FT SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST (NORTHWEST AT KLEE) 5-10 KTS BEHIND WEAK
SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHTNING NORTHWESTERLY AND
VRB AT TIMES TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NOT EVEN WORTHY OF VCSH
COULD BRUSH KSUA THIS AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS. THERE
ARE LOW CHANCES (20% OR LESS) FOR MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS FROM PATCHY
FOG BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. KEEPING TAFS VFR (NOT EVEN 6SM BR MENTION)
AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE WHERE/WHEN/IF FOG WILL DEVELOP.
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CHRISTMAS MORNING INCREASE A BIT TO 5-10
KTS IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, SHIFTING NORTHEASTERLY
(WESTERLY AT KLEE) BEHIND ANOTHER SET OF WEAK SEA BREEZES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 55 77 55 76 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 58 78 57 78 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 57 77 56 77 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 57 78 56 78 / 10 10 0 0
LEE 55 78 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 56 79 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 58 78 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 57 78 55 78 / 10 10 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...HALEY
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