840
FXUS62 KMLB 242325
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
625 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
- LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT, USHERING IN COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH NEW
YEAR'S EVE/NEW YEAR'S DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF INTO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT,
AROUND 5-10 MPH DURING THE DAY AND 5 MPH OR LESS DURING THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE N/NW ON CHRISTMAS DAY, BACKING TO
THE W/NW ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL
REMAIN DRY OVER LAND, WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING OUT OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
MAIN POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
PRODUCING LOCALIZED VISIBILITIES OF A HALF MILE OR LESS, DUE TO
LIGHTER WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE ISN'T A LOT OF GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHICH LOCATIONS ARE FAVORED
OVER OTHERS FOR THIS FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA,
WITH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA. THEREFORE HAVE JUST MENTIONED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...FORECAST CHANGES LITTLE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA, KEEPING LIGHTER
WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES EACH DAY, AND
LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S. PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
MONDAY, WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS BOUNDARY
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES THEN PLUMMET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 60S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S,
EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 40S NW OF I-4, BUT THEN TURN EVEN COLDER FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ALSO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE NEW YEAR'S EVE
NIGHTTIME FESTIVITIES. NBM GUIDANCE AND OFFICIAL FORECAST
CURRENTLY HAS MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS, BUT MID TO UPPER 30S ARE FORECAST
FOR NORMALLY COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS, SUCH AS RURAL AREAS SOUTH
OF ORLANDO AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
OVERALL MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE, WITH BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WATERS
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY
SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. N/NW WINDS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL
BACK TO A MORE OFFSHORE DIRECTION LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
WINDS SPEEDS MOSTLY BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS AROUND 3-5 FEET TONIGHT
WILL DROP TO 2-4 FEET TOMORROW AND FRIDAY, INCREASING BACK TO 3-5
FEET SATURDAY BRIEFLY BEFORE FALLING BACK TO 2-4 FEET ON SUNDAY.
BOATING CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BECOMING POOR TO
HAZARDOUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE WINDS INCREASE UP TO
15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-6 FEET. WINDS THEN BECOME N/NW BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT, INCREASING FURTHER UP TO 20-25 KNOTS AND BUILDING SEAS
TO 6-9 FEET.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS CHRISTMAS EVE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH WHERE/IF PATCHY FG WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST SOME TERMINALS
AROUND EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SEE FG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 9Z AND
THROUGH SUNRISE, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. FOR NOW, HAVE
INCLUDED MVFR TEMPO MENTIONS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD, WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR UPDATES. OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL FOR THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. NORTHERLY TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CHANCES FOR FG APPEAR GREATER CHRISTMAS NIGHT (AFTER 6Z
ON THE 26TH).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 55 77 55 76 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 58 78 57 78 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 57 77 56 77 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 57 78 56 78 / 10 10 0 0
LEE 55 78 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 56 79 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 58 78 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 57 78 55 78 / 10 10 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...LEAHY
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