005
FXUS62 KMLB 251820
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
120 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
- LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT, USHERING IN COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH NEW
YEAR'S EVE/NEW YEAR'S DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING... CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NATURE COAST, SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND WHERE IT MAY
REACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY BEFORE SUNRISE. OUTSIDE OF
ADVECTIVE SEA FOG, A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD WORK TO LIMIT
ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH WHERE
SKIES ARE CLEAR, THERE COULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING AT THIS TIME.
TODAY-SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WITH NO MENTIONABLE PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS IS FORECAST TO HOLD IN VICINITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD REMAINS
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG EARLY EACH MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL, MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND NEAR 80 DEGREES. MORNING
LOWS GENERALLY RANGE THE LOW TO MID 50S, WARMING SOME ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY-THURSDAY... THE LOCAL PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE NEXT WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY, PASSING CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH OUT OF
THE WEST MONDAY, SHIFTING NORTHWEST INTO TUESDAY. CURRENT GLOBAL
MODEL RUNS ARE RELATIVELY DRY ALONG THE FRONT, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES
20 PERCENT OR LESS. MORE NOTABLY, THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
COLDER TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ON TUESDAY
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE COLDEST AREAS ARE FORECAST NORTH AND WEST OF I-4 WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY MODELED IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
AFTERNOON HIGHS HOLD ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
RANGING THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. BY TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR AND NORTH OF ORLANDO WHILE SPREADING
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FURTHER SOUTH. SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH MOST LOCATIONS HOLDING IN THE 60S BEFORE BEGINNING A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS
THROUGH LATE WEEK. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS MOSTLY HOLD 10 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING
TO 10-15 KTS ON SATURDAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SUNDAY, GRADUALLY
VEERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT, BRIEFLY
INCREASING UP TO 5 FT IN THE GULF STREAM ON SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON MONDAY, PASSING THE WATERS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHWEST, BUILDING SEAS 5-7 FT
IN THE GULF STREAM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST (WESTERLY AT KLEE) THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS WEAK SEA BREEZES PUSH THROUGH, BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ARE
SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THAN THE LAST FEW
MORNINGS. CHANCES FOR IFR-LIFR REDUCTIONS AT KMCO AND OTHER INLAND
TERMINALS 20-30%, DOWN TO AROUND 10% AT COASTAL TERMINALS. CHANCES
STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR PREVAILING REDUCTIONS EXCEPT AT KLEE,
SO CONTINUED TEMPOS AT THE REST OF THE INLAND TERMINALS, SLIGHTLY
ADJUSTING TIMING TO 10Z-14Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IN START/END TIME OF
FOG IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FRIDAY ONCE FOG
CLEARS. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BECOME VARIABLE ALONG THE COAST AS A
SEA BREEZE ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP, SHIFTING BETWEEN BEING PINNED NEAR
THE COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 56 78 55 76 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 58 79 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 56 78 56 77 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 56 78 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 55 78 55 76 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 56 80 56 77 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 58 79 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 54 78 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...HALEY
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