104
FXUS62 KMLB 260548
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1248 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 133 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
- LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
WEATHER CONCERN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
PATCHY/AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY, USHERING IN COLDER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS THROUGH NEW YEAR'S EVE/NEW YEAR'S DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
NUDGES EASTWARD AND ACROSS FLORIDA, KEEPING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
IN PLACE. SKIES WILL RANGE FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 DEGREES, AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR LAND
AREAS. HOWEVER, A CONVERGENCE LINE BEING GENERATED FROM N/NW FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND EASTERLY FLOW ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE MID-ALANTIC COAST
CONTINUES TO GENERATE A BAND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE CONVERGENCE
WEAKENS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR FOG FORMATION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE COUNTY EASTWARD THROUGH THE I-4
CORRIDOR. HAVE ADDED "AREAS OF FOG" WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS
PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL FL, WITH PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. FOG MAY
THICKEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A HALF A MILE, AND
WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR ANY POTENTIAL
DENSE FOG ADVISORIES. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND TOWARD FLORIDA ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS
FRONT OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OF MODEL RUNS, AND NOW HAS THE
BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED NOT AS COLD BEHIND THE FRONT AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HOWEVER, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
LIKELY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WITH MAX TEMPS THEN FORECAST TO DROP TO THE 60S TO LOW
70S TUESDAY THROUGH NEW YEAR'S DAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOWS IN THE
50S MONDAY NIGHT AS BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH, BUT THEN IT
TURNS COLDER INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY, FORECAST LOWS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE HIGHER AGAIN WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, BUT IT STILL LOOKS TO BE CHILLY, WITH MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LOWS
BELOW THE 40 DEGREE MARK (BUT STILL ABOVE FREEZING) ARE ACROSS
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF I-4. NBM PROBABILITIES OF
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THIS REGION ARE CURRENTLY AROUND
60-80% BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER
LAND AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS RAIN CHANCES MOSTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FOR
NOW, NBM AND OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR OVERALL DRIER
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 133 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. N/NW WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME W/NW LATE TONIGHT
AND OVERALL REMAIN OUT OF THIS DIRECTION THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
BECOMING N/NE SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY WHEN WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE,
NEAR TO NORTH OF THE CAPE. WAVE HEIGHTS 2-4 FEET BUILD TO 3-5 FEET
SATURDAY AND BACK TO 2-4 FEET SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND TOWARD FLORIDA ON
MONDAY, CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A FRESH TO STRONG W/NW BREEZE (~15-25 KNOTS) DEVELOPING
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 6-8 FEET.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
MONITORING FOR POTENTIAL FOG IMPACTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CONFIDENCE FOR
MVFR/IFR FOG IMPACTS RESIDES AT LEE/ISM WHERE MODELS SUGGEST FOG
SPREADING FROM THE WEST, GENERALLY AFTER 09Z. HAVE KEPT FOG
IMPACTS WITHIN THE TAF AT MCO/SFB, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS
DECREASING AT THESE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, FOG PROBABILITIES
REMAIN LOW ALONG THE COAST WITH LIMITED GROUND FOG IMPACTS AT
VRB/FPR CAUSING "BOUNCY" VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT, PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST. A WEAK SEA BREEZE
WILL SHIFT WINDS ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 78 54 76 58 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 78 57 78 61 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 78 56 78 58 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 78 54 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 78 54 77 58 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 79 55 78 59 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 78 57 77 60 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 78 54 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...LAW
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