375
FXUS62 KMLB 301905
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
205 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 205 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
- WIND CHILL VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID-20S TO MID-30S
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT COASTAL MARTIN COUNTY.
- A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE AND INLAND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS TEMPERATURES
REACH THE FREEZING MARK.
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH A RETURN OF GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF, BROADLY EXTENDING TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. LOCALLY, IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT,
COLD, DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH THANKS TO PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES NEAR-ZERO. THIS ALSO, HOWEVER, MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL WELL BELOW-NORMAL TONIGHT, WITH LOWS FORECAST IN
THE 30S AREAWIDE. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES, WHERE LOWS
BELOW 32 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT OF THIS, A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE AND INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTIES FROM
1 AM TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL CAUSE A WIND CHILL, WITH
VALUES FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING, EXCLUDING
COASTAL MARTIN COUNTY. WITH THESE COLD TEMPERATURES AND LOW WIND
CHILLS FORECAST, RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PROTECT ANY PLANTS
SENSITIVE TO THE COLD, BRING PETS INDOORS, AND CHECK IN ON
NEIGHBORS. IF USING SPACE HEATERS, BE SURE TO PLUG THEM INTO A
PROPER OUTLET AND KEEP ANY FLAMMABLE MATERIALS AWAY FROM THE SPACE
HEATER. THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE WARMTH, CLOTHING, OR SHELTER WILL
BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE COLD AND WIND CHILLS.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PERSIST, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA, WITH SOME SPOTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S. WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
PERSIST ALL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WIND SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE, WITH MANY AREAS FALLING BELOW 5 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN RURAL LOCATIONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
PROTECTION OF PLANTS SENSITIVE TO THE COLD AND FROST WILL NEED TO
BE CONSIDERED. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE 30S AREAWIDE, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN REACHING COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE IF
NEEDED.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO KICK OFF THE NEW YEAR, WITH RAIN CHANCES
STAYING NEAR-ZERO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THANKS TO THE DRIER
AIR, SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED ON NEW YEAR'S DAY, WITH SOME
BUILDING CLOUD COVERAGE ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH ON THURSDAY BACK TO OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY, WITH WIND SPEEDS FALLING TO AROUND 5 MPH AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH BECOMES MORE DIRECTLY SITUATED OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TREND WARMER ,
WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 60S WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S ON FRIDAY. SIMILAR TREND WITH LOWS, WITH THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.
SATURDAY-MONDAY (PREVIOUS)...YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND, AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES RETURN, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. POPS CURRENTLY 20-30%, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH AMBIENT AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DRY AS AROUND
THE NEW YEAR'S HOLIDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, AS HIGHS REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN IN THE 50S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 205 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE
NEARSHORE TREASURE COAST WATERS DUE TO SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET AND
NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME LINGERING 6 FOOT
SEAS FORECAST ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. GENERALLY FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE LOCAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH WINDS SUBSIDING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS FALLING TO
2 TO 4 FEET. DRY CONDITIONS ALSO PERSIST THANKS TO AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
BY THE WEEKEND, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. NOT ONLY WILL THIS BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO
THE AREA (30-50%), BUT ALSO DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS.
WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING
WINDS. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
VFR HAS RESUMED AT ALL SITES AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD.
SCT/BKN 150-250 WILL LINGER FOR SOME TIME BEFORE GRADUAL CLEARING
OCCURS AFTER 03Z-06Z WED. WNW WINDS 5-12 KT WILL WEAKEN A BIT
OVERNIGHT, RETURNING TO 10 KT OR LESS EVERYWHERE AFTER 15Z WED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 205 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY, COLD AIR MASS WILL CAUSE
SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL
TO 25-30% ON WEDNESDAY, IMPROVING SLIGHTLY TO 30-35% ACROSS MOST
AREAS ON THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO CONTINUE,
THOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS WINDS STAYING JUST BELOW 15 MPH
ON WEDNESDAY AND RIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH ON THURSDAY. FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY AS MINIMUM RH VALUES REMAIN
ABOVE 35% AND WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 34 58 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 37 58 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 37 61 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 36 62 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 34 57 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 35 59 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 37 58 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 36 62 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ041-
044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-
647-747.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ041-044-
144.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ555-572-575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ570.
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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