185
FXUS62 KMLB 310733
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
233 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT COASTAL
MARTIN COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO WIND CHILLS IN THE
MID-20S TO MID-30S. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE AND
INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTIES
- VERY DRY AND COOL TODAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 12
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
- NOT QUITE AS COLD TONIGHT, THOUGH FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY ACROSS RURAL INTERIOR LOCATIONS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT...COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING,
WITH WIND CHILLS ALREADY IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH OF I-4 PRIOR TO
2AM. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO PLUMMET THROUGH SUNRISE
NOW THAT SKIES HAVE CLEARED, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-20S TO
MID-30S. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9AM FOR LAKE
AND INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY, WHILE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT COASTAL MARTIN COUNTY.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CLEAR SKIES WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO OVERCOME THE PERSISTENT ADVECTION OF COOL, DRY AIR INTO THE
LOCAL AREA VIA NORTHWEST WINDS. THUS, HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE AROUND 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREA-WIDE, AS NORTHERN AREAS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S AND SOUTHERN AREAS ONLY REALIZE THE LOWER
60S. VERY DRY AIR ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL KEEP PWATS WELL
BELOW 0.5", WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 25-30%. NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE FORECAST AROUND 8-12 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD, THOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD
AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID-30S
TO NEAR 40, SO FREEZING CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY. INSTEAD,
LIGHTER WINDS MAY LEAD TO FROST CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR
RURAL LOCATIONS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR A POTENTIAL
FROST ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALSO HELP
TO REDUCE WIND CHILLS, THOUGH THEY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AS LOW
AS THE LOWER 30S (JUST ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA) FOR
MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF THROUGH LATE WEEK. DRY AIR OVER THE LOCAL AREA IS
MAINTAINED BY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE MODEST
MOISTURE (PWATS NEAR 0.5") BEGINS TO RETURN FRIDAY, AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND WESTERLY. WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, THEY WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND,
BECOMING NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL ALSO HELP LINGERING
COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
WARM TO THE MID-40S TO LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DIG THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY, REACHING THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARMER, MORE MOIST AIR
INTO THE LOCAL AREA, PRODUCING NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-70S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD THE
CURRENT TREND HOLD, DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY, BEFORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA
ALONG THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, THIS APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY PERIOD
FOR RAIN CHANCES OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. BEHIND THE
FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST US, WITH A PERIOD
OF ONSHORE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, AS SEAS UP TO 6-7 FT OVER THE GULF
STREAM DIMINISH. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
LOOK TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. LIGHTER
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
SEAS FALLING TO 1-3FT.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS OFFSHORE WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, REACHING 20-25 KTS WELL OFFSHORE. DUE
TO THE WIND DIRECTION, SEA RESPONSE IS FORECAST TO BE MINOR,
REMAINING UNDER 6 FT. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS PERSIST OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KTS TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY, AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PENINSULA AND DRY AIR LINGERS OVER
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE THIS AFTERNOON,
AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN AROUND 8-12 MPH, JUST SHY OF RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA, WHILE MIN RH PLUMMETS TO 25-30% AREA-WIDE.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE THURSDAY, WITH LIGHTER WINDS
UNDER 10 MPH, THOUGH MIN RH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 30-35%.
WILL SEE GREATER IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY, WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA KEEPING MIN RH
BETWEEN 40-50%.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 58 37 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 58 40 65 44 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 61 39 66 44 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 62 37 66 42 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 57 38 66 43 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 59 38 65 43 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 58 40 65 46 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 62 36 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ041-
044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-
647-747.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ041-044-144.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ555-572-575.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...LAW
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