843
FXUS62 KMLB 312327
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
627 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 140 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
- A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF I-95, IN
EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK.
- GRADUALLY WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S ON SATURDAY.
- BREEZY ON SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
NOW-TONIGHT...AFTER A COLD MORNING IN EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA,
TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE 50S (LOW 60S NEAR STUART) UNDER
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD AS A
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO EXPAND EAST OVER THE GULF TONIGHT. CALM
WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S, AND RECOVERING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OVER THE INTERIOR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, A FROST ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED, BEGINNING AT 1 AM THURSDAY, FOR ALL AREAS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. WHILE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE LOW AND MID
30S, LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS SHOULD KEEP US JUST ABOVE THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLD.
NEW YEAR'S DAY-FRIDAY...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BRING MORNING LOWS FROM THE 30S AND
LOW 40S TO THE MID 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR REMAINS
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOISTURE SLOWLY
RETURNS ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SIMULATED SATELLITE
INDICATE A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS, THE WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR
NORMAL, OR JUST SHY OF NORMAL, INTO THE LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAIN CHILLY, SETTLING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S THURSDAY NIGHT
AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...500MB RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TROUGHING AND MID LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY NORTH)
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH IN OUR DIRECTION. SOUTHWEST
WINDS BECOME BREEZY, TOO, GUSTING AT TIMES AROUND 20 MPH. HEIGHT
FALLS, 1.3-1.4" PW, AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE THE
SUPPORT FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. ACTIVITY MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY, PERHAPS EVEN
INTO MONDAY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN
THE FORECAST AS MODELS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST DOES NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION
COASTAL SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
TO SEE A LOW RAIN CHANCE INTRODUCED IN LATER UPDATES.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AFFECTED ALL THAT MUCH IN THE WAKE OF THIS
NEXT FRONT. SUNDAY MAY BE A DEGREE OR THREE COOLER, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN LOCATIONS, BUT IS OVERALL SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
NBM'S 50TH PERCENTILE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE FIRST FULL
WEEK OF 2026, BRINGING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 140 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
POOR BOATING CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RESUME THURSDAY MORNING, NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET, DUE TO 15-20 KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS UP TO 6
FT THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE GULF STREAM WILL REMAIN 3-5 FT ON
THURSDAY. IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE THEN SET TO RETURN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS. SEAS DECREASE TO 1-3 FT.
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF POOR TO HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS. OFFSHORE WINDS OF 15-25 KT WILL HAVE A MINOR
EFFECT ON WAVE HEIGHTS, GENERALLY STAYING 6 FT OR LESS. WINDS
VEER NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY AS ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KT BY
MID MORNING TOMORROW (THURSDAY). WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 140 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
DESPITE LIGHTER WINDS, SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH NEW YEAR'S DAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (30-35%).
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNS TO THE AREA
WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 36 65 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 39 65 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 39 66 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 36 66 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 37 65 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 37 65 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 39 65 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 35 66 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR FLZ041-044>046-
053-058-144-247-254-259-264-547.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...WATSON
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