104
FXUS62 KMLB 010748
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
248 AM EST THU JAN 1 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 120 AM EST THU JAN 1 2026
- A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST OF I-95,
THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK.
- GRADUALLY WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S ON SATURDAY.
- BREEZY ON SATURDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 AM EST THU JAN 1 2026
TODAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TO START THE NEW YEAR, WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AREA-WIDE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST ARE FORECAST, WITH A FROST
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST OF I-95 THROUGH 9 AM.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL BUILD EASTWARD
THROUGH LATE WEEK, CROSSING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. LOCALLY,
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL, WITH NO MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES TODAY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
FRIDAY, HOWEVER, AS HIGHER (BUT STILL DRY) AVAILABLE MOISTURE
CREEPS INTO THE AREA. PWATS WELL BELOW 0.5" LOOK TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 0.75". TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD, AS NORTHWEST FLOW VEERS WESTERLY AND SLACKENS. BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-60S LINGER THIS AFTERNOON,
BEFORE BECOMING NEARER TO NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE EACH DAY, REACHING THE MID-40S
TO LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH, TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
40 REMAIN FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT. THE FROST THREAT
TONIGHT APPEARS LIMITED, WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 37 DEGREES. SHOULD THEY DIP BELOW FORECAST VALUES,
PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN RURAL LOCATIONS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DRIFTS
OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH,
REACHING THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST, THOUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY. BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS (POPS 30-60%) ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
DIMINISHING FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 SATURDAY EVENING, THOUGH
CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOW (20% OR LESS), DUE TO LINGERING DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND VERY MODEST LAPSE RATES. POPS DIMINISH INTO SUNDAY,
THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE COAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE VEERING NORTHERLY INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB, REACHING THE LOWER TO MID-70S BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT
CHILL SLIGHTLY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH NOT AS DRAMATICALLY AS
THIS WEEK. INSTEAD, LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AGAIN.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
EARLY NEXT WEEK NEAR THE CAROLINAS, THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST, WHERE IT LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-WEEK. ONSHORE OR SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY, REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB, EVEN BECOMING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S, AS LOWS COOL TO
THE 50S. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, THOUGH EVEN PWATS
NEAR 1" AND ONSHORE FLOW, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST
LOW SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 120 AM EST THU JAN 1 2026
TODAY-FRIDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING OFFSHORE NORTH
OF CAPE CANAVERAL DUE TO A FAIRLY BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, BECOMING GENERALLY FAVORABLE THROUGH FRIDAY, AS WINDS
VEER OFFSHORE AND SLACKEN. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL, WITH SEAS 2-5
FT TODAY DIMINISHING TO 1-3 FT TOMORROW.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY, WITH WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS PRODUCING POOR TO
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. WHILE SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD DUE
TO THE WIND DIRECTION, WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT SATURDAY LOOK TO
BECOME UP TO 5-7 FT IN THE GULF STREAM ON SUNDAY, AS WINDS 15-20
KTS VEER NORTHERLY. POOR TO HAZARDOUS SEAS THEN LINGER INTO
MONDAY, DESPITE LIGHTER ONSHORE WINDS DUE TO DEVELOPING HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE LOCAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND ALONG THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THEN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM EST THU JAN 1 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND QUIET TAFS.
LIGHT W/NW BREEZES < 10 KT THROUGHOUT WITH VFR CONDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 120 AM EST THU JAN 1 2026
SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY, AS DRY AIR LEADS
TO MIN RH AS LOW AS 30-35% AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR 10 MPH OR LESS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE FRIDAY, AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THIS
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 65 43 70 52 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 65 45 71 53 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 65 45 71 51 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 65 42 71 49 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 65 44 71 53 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 65 44 71 52 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 65 46 71 53 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 65 41 71 48 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ041-044>046-
053-058-144-247-254-259-264-547.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...HEIL
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