652
FXUS62 KMLB 011752
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1252 PM EST THU JAN 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 120 AM EST THU JAN 1 2026
- A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST OF I-95,
THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK.
- GRADUALLY WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S ON SATURDAY.
- BREEZY ON SATURDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 AM EST THU JAN 1 2026
TODAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TO START THE NEW YEAR, WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AREA-WIDE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST ARE FORECAST, WITH A FROST
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST OF I-95 THROUGH 9 AM.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL BUILD EASTWARD
THROUGH LATE WEEK, CROSSING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. LOCALLY,
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL, WITH NO MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES TODAY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
FRIDAY, HOWEVER, AS HIGHER (BUT STILL DRY) AVAILABLE MOISTURE
CREEPS INTO THE AREA. PWATS WELL BELOW 0.5" LOOK TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 0.75". TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD, AS NORTHWEST FLOW VEERS WESTERLY AND SLACKENS. BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-60S LINGER THIS AFTERNOON,
BEFORE BECOMING NEARER TO NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE EACH DAY, REACHING THE MID-40S
TO LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH, TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
40 REMAIN FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT. THE FROST THREAT
TONIGHT APPEARS LIMITED, WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 37 DEGREES. SHOULD THEY DIP BELOW FORECAST VALUES,
PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN RURAL LOCATIONS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DRIFTS
OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH,
REACHING THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST, THOUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY. BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS (POPS 30-60%) ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
DIMINISHING FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 SATURDAY EVENING, THOUGH
CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOW (20% OR LESS), DUE TO LINGERING DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND VERY MODEST LAPSE RATES. POPS DIMINISH INTO SUNDAY,
THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE COAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE VEERING NORTHERLY INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB, REACHING THE LOWER TO MID-70S BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT
CHILL SLIGHTLY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH NOT AS DRAMATICALLY AS
THIS WEEK. INSTEAD, LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AGAIN.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
EARLY NEXT WEEK NEAR THE CAROLINAS, THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST, WHERE IT LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-WEEK. ONSHORE OR SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY, REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB, EVEN BECOMING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S, AS LOWS COOL TO
THE 50S. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, THOUGH EVEN PWATS
NEAR 1" AND ONSHORE FLOW, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST
LOW SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 120 AM EST THU JAN 1 2026
TODAY-FRIDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING OFFSHORE NORTH
OF CAPE CANAVERAL DUE TO A FAIRLY BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, BECOMING GENERALLY FAVORABLE THROUGH FRIDAY, AS WINDS
VEER OFFSHORE AND SLACKEN. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL, WITH SEAS 2-5
FT TODAY DIMINISHING TO 1-3 FT TOMORROW.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY, WITH WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS PRODUCING POOR TO
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. WHILE SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD DUE
TO THE WIND DIRECTION, WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT SATURDAY LOOK TO
BECOME UP TO 5-7 FT IN THE GULF STREAM ON SUNDAY, AS WINDS 15-20
KTS VEER NORTHERLY. POOR TO HAZARDOUS SEAS THEN LINGER INTO
MONDAY, DESPITE LIGHTER ONSHORE WINDS DUE TO DEVELOPING HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE LOCAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND ALONG THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THEN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST THU JAN 1 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. W-NW WINDS HAVE
CREPT UP TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST, BUT
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE,
LIGHT W-NW WITH TODAY BECOME VRB AT TIMES OVER NIGHT. VERY LOW TO
LOW (10-30%) CHANCES FOR MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS FROM HZ FRIDAY
MORNING ROUGHLY 10Z-14Z, HIGHEST CHANCES AT KMCO AND OTHER INLAND
TERMINALS. MIFG POSSIBLE AT MOST TERMINALS. MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS
BEEN POOR, SO KEEPING THE TAFS VFR FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THE REST OF THE DAY. LIGHT W-SW WINDS. A WEAK SEA BREEZE COULD
CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT ONSHORE AT TIMES AT KVRB-KSUA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 120 AM EST THU JAN 1 2026
SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY, AS DRY AIR LEADS
TO MIN RH AS LOW AS 30-35% AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR 10 MPH OR LESS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE FRIDAY, AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THIS
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 42 70 52 75 / 0 0 0 20
MCO 44 71 52 75 / 0 0 0 10
MLB 41 71 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 39 71 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 44 71 52 74 / 0 0 0 20
SFB 43 71 52 76 / 0 0 0 10
ORL 46 70 52 75 / 0 0 0 10
FPR 38 71 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...HALEY
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