013
FXUS62 KMLB 021715
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1215 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
- GRADUALLY WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S ON SATURDAY.
- BREEZY ON SATURDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START THIS MORNING, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NEARER TO NORMAL, REACHING
AROUND 70. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL
LEAD TO BUILDING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
40S, THOUGH RURAL PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTH OF I-4 COULD DIP
INTO THE MID-40S AGAIN.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SATURDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES LOCALLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BECOMING
UP TO 10-15 MPH NORTH OF I-4 IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY,
THOUGH MOST OF SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY. THE FRONT
WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS. POPS 30-60% FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, AS
THE FRONT DIMINISHES. THUNDER CHANCES OVER LAND AREAS LOOK LOW
(BELOW 15%), DUE TO WEAKENING SUPPORT AND A LACK OF CAPE. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF
THE CAPE, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OCCASIONALLY BRINGING OFFSHORE
SHOWERS INTO THE COAST. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO END
THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-70S ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER, A MAJOR
COOL DOWN IS NOT FORECAST. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS NORTH OF
I-4, WHICH LOOK TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
50S.
NEXT WEEK...SURFACE RIDGING MOVES OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO LINGER AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD. GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO PREVAIL,
REMAINING AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
DRIFT ONSHORE AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EACH DAY, WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 50S, THOUGH COASTAL LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S BY LATE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON ITS WAY TO THE ATLANTIC.
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SEAS 1-3 FT AND DRY
CONDITIONS. THEN, WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. POOR BOATING CONDITIONS BY THE
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS WINDS
INCREASE TO UP TO 20-25 KTS WELL OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO
RESPOND DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO UP
TO 3-5 FT, MAINLY IN THE GULF STREAM. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS
POSSIBLE. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY,
REMAINING UP TO AROUND 15 KTS, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR.
NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
STRENGTHENS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN GENERALLY
ONSHORE FLOW. WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS WILL LEND TO FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS, AS SEAS DIMINISH TO 2-4 FT BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
THINNING HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVERHEAD. SW WINDS UP TO 10
KTS TODAY, BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. CONTINUED VFR. PGRAD TIGHTENS
ON SAT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SW WINDS 10-15 KTS
SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILL MONITOR SAT AFTERNOON & EVENING
FOR "VICINITY" WORDING FOR SHOWERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 52 75 58 68 / 10 20 60 10
MCO 53 75 61 71 / 0 20 50 10
MLB 51 76 58 73 / 0 10 30 20
VRB 48 75 57 75 / 0 10 30 20
LEE 53 75 59 70 / 10 30 60 10
SFB 52 76 60 70 / 0 20 50 10
ORL 54 75 60 71 / 0 20 50 10
FPR 47 75 56 76 / 0 0 20 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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