182
FXUS62 KMLB 022328
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
628 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
- GRADUALLY WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S ON SATURDAY.
- BREEZY ON SATURDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...QUIET, MOSTLY CLEAR, DRY, AND GRADUALLY
WARMING AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA STARTS TO
SLIP SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING FROM
THE ARK-LA-TEX TOWARDS THE NORTH GULF COAST. OTHER THAN HOW NICE
IT IS TODAY, ONLY WEATHER OF NOTE ARE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA, SOME DAYTIME CU THAT HAS POPPED UP HERE
AND THERE, AND GENTLE WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL, MAYBE A BIT ON THE
COOLER SIDE IN THE U60S-L70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE M40S-L50S A
BIT OF AN ODD MIX OF ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL, ON THE WARMER SIDE TO THE
NORTH AND COOLER SIDE TO THE SOUTH. HAZE AND MAYBE SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE WEEKEND...A TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST PUSHES A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH FLORIDA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PRODUCING
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS 10-15 MPH
GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES FROM THE ORLANDO METRO AREA NORTH, AND
AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH TO THE SOUTH. MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT (PWATS UP TO 1.3-1.5" BY LATE
EVENING, AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR), BUT DUE
TO THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH ARRIVING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
AFTER PEAK DAYTIME HEATING, AND HAVING LARGELY OUTRUN UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT, FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING (MUCAPE LESS
THAN 500 J/KG). DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST MOST OF SATURDAY, THEN
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CAMS
ARE COMING INTO RANGE BUT ARE A MIXED BAG. MOST LEAN TOWARDS A
LINE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DYING AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA BETWEEN 7 PM SATURDAY EVENING AND NOON SUNDAY,
WITH THE HRRR AND PARTICULARLY THE ARW BEING FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE
CALLING FOR A COUPLE ROUNDS IN SPOTS THAT COULD START AS EARLY AS
4 PM, WHILE THE RRFS AND NAM ARE WASHOUTS. OFFICIAL FORECAST
FALLS BETWEEN NBM (ALSO VERY AGGRESSIVE) AND GFS MOS (VERY
PESSIMISTIC) WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AT 40-60% ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES GENERALLY AFTER SUNSET WHERE RESIDUAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD AND DECREASING TO 20-40% AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND REMAIN LOW (20% OR LESS) DUE TO THE LACK
OF INSTABILITY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES SUCH AS THEY ARE ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-4 IN THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY, BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS
LATE AS THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
SUNDAY.
THE FRONT ITSELF DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY, AND EVEN THEN MAJOR
COOLING IS NOT FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY'S AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE M70S (SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE U50-L60S (WELL ABOVE
NORMAL). SUNDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGHS RANGE FROM THE U60-L70S UP NORTH
(NEAR NORMAL) TO THE M-U70S DOWN SOUTH (ABOVE NORMAL) AS THE
COOLER AIR ARRIVES. COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S (AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL), DOWN INTO THE U40S IN THE USUALLY COOLER RURAL AREAS
WELL NORTH OF I-4 (NEAR NORMAL), AND HOLDING ON TO THE L60S ON THE
SOUTHERNMOST COAST (ABOVE NORMAL).
NEXT WEEK (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...SURFACE RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. GENERALLY
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS LOOKS TO PREVAIL,
WITH EASTERLY WINDS EARLY IN THE WEEK BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY MID
TO LATE WEEK AS A WEATHER SYSTEM SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH PUSHES
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS DRIFT ONSHORE AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EACH
DAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 50S, THOUGH COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S BY LATE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA GRADUALLY SLIPS SOUTHEAST AND OUT TO
SEA. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND DRY CONDITIONS. SEAS
1-3 FT.
BOATING CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING FRONT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, REACHING 15-20 KTS IN MUCH OF
THE OFFSHORE AND VOLUSIA WATERS BY THE AFTERNOON, AND FURTHER
INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 20-25 KTS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY/OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ACT TO FLATTEN SEAS SOME, BUT STILL
BUILDING TO 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-6 FT OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT WILL REMAIN
POOR TO HAZARDOUS INTO THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM
1 PM SATURDAY THROUGH 10 AM SUNDAY, AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF STREAM INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CLOSER TO SHORE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF CLEARING THE LOCAL WATERS AROUND SUNDAY EVENING.
BOATING CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT CHOPPY SEAS MAY
LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THEN A WEATHER SYSTEM SLIDING NORTH OF THE AREA MID-
WEEK PUSHES THE HIGH FURTHER OUT TO SEA, BUT THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXTENDING OVER FLORIDA. ONSHORE
(EASTERLY) WINDS 5-15 KTS MONDAY GRADUALLY VEER BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY. CHOPPY 3-5 FT SEAS MONDAY SETTLE TO 2-4 FT
TUESDAY. A FEW MARINE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY FORECAST. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY SOUTH OF ORLANDO WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER. HOWEVER, FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE TIME
BEING REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. IT WILL REMAIN DRY
TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF THE DAYTIME TOMORROW, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FL LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AROUND 22-23Z FOR SITES FROM KISM/KMCO/KTIX
NORTHWARD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO TONIGHT,
BECOMING 10-13 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 18-22 KNOTS AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 52 75 58 68 / 10 20 60 10
MCO 53 75 61 71 / 0 20 50 10
MLB 51 76 58 73 / 0 10 30 20
VRB 48 75 57 75 / 0 10 30 20
LEE 53 75 59 70 / 10 30 60 10
SFB 52 76 60 70 / 0 20 50 10
ORL 54 75 60 71 / 0 20 50 10
FPR 47 75 56 76 / 0 0 20 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
AMZ570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
AMZ572-575.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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