052
FXUS62 KMLB 030607
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
107 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 107 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
- TURNING BREEZY AND WARMER TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-25
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA, BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. THE
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING IS LOW.
- SPRINGLIKE WARMTH RETURNS NEXT WEEK, WITH MANY SPOTS REACHING
THE LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 107 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
-----------SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW-----------
WELL SOUTH OF A BLOCKING -NAO PATTERN, QUASI-ZONAL MID-LEVEL
FLOW WAS ANALYZED TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPSTREAM,
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXITING THE RED RIVER VALLEY (TX/OK) AHEAD
OF A GATHERING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. IN RESPONSE TO
THE DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST, WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONT HAVE
FORMED OVER THE I-20 CORRIDOR. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THIS
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD, PASSING OVER
THE STATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE IT DEPARTS INTO THE W
ATLANTIC. THE RESULT FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (WITH PWS PEAKING AT AROUND 170%
OF NORMAL). A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY,
DRAGGING DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD WITH IT. PWS DROP CLOSER TO 0.75-1"
BY MONDAY.
NEXT WEEK, A COMBINATION OF THE WEAKENING BLOCK OVER GREENLAND
AND ADDITIONAL PACIFIC JET STREAM ENERGY CRASHING INTO THE WEST
SHOULD CAUSE THE UPSTREAM RIDGING TO SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD. THIS
RIDGE SHOULD BECOME CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA BY
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. 02/12Z CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THE GRAND
ENSEMBLE SHOWS NO SUBSTANTIVE DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS GENERAL PATTERN
EVOLUTION. IN FACT, 50-60% OF MEMBERS SHOW H5 HEIGHTS PEAKING AROUND
588 DAM BY NEXT SATURDAY, WHICH IS JUST ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF
CLIMATOLOGY. AN AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALSO SPEND MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA. UNSURPRISINGLY, PBL TEMPERATURES
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY, WITH H85 T'S LEVELING OFF AROUND +11 TO +13
DEG C FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ENSEMBLES HINT THAT THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL FRONT TO REACH FLORIDA
SHOULD WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT SUNDAY (1/11) OR MONDAY (1/12),
WITH SOME COOLING POTENTIAL THEREAFTER.
-------SENSIBLE WEATHER & IMPACTS-------
TODAY - TONIGHT...
TEMPERATURES TREND BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS (70S),
COURTESY OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 MPH
WILL BE NOTICED FROM TIME TO TIME. MUCH OF THE DAYTIME SHOULD BE
DRY, SAVE FOR OUR COMMUNITIES NEAR AND NORTH OF ORLANDO, WHERE THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT, MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SETTLING TOWARD THE AREA. GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE SHOWERS WILL EXTEND
BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE. KEPT OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST LARGELY INTACT,
CALLING FOR 50-70% SHOWER CHANCES NORTH OF MELBOURNE TO LAKE
KISSIMMEE, LESSENING TO 20-30% EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LIMITED (< 20%), WITH MUCAPE
VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG. THE CHANCE FOR OVER 1/2"
OF RAIN IS WELL UNDER 10% FOR MOST OF US, WITH PERHAPS A 10-20%
CHANCE OF REACHING THAT TALLY NORTHWEST OF I-4.
SUNDAY - MONDAY...
AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES SOUTH OF HERE, WE MAY SQUEAK OUT A SHOWER
OR TWO ON SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEVELOP SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY THAT HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF
SKIRTING THE COAST. FOR NOW, RAIN CHANCES ARE HELD AT 20% OR LESS,
WITH MOST PLACES DRY BOTH DAYS.
SUBTLY COOLER AIR TEASES THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA ON SUNDAY,
LIKELY HOLDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH OF ORLANDO, WHERE SOME
CLOUDS MAY LINGER. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE IN THE 70S
TO FINISH THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY, ALL AREAS TURN A BIT WARMER WITH
MID 70S NORTH TO NEAR 80 AROUND LAKE O.
TUESDAY - NEXT SATURDAY...
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SETTING UP SHOP, ANY CONSEQUENTIAL
WEATHER FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE DEFLECTED WELL NORTH OF
THE STATE. THIS PAVES THE WAY FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF SPRING-LIKE
WEATHER. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL TREND SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
MOST SPOTS. OVER THE INTERIOR, THERE IS A 10-30% PROBABILITY OF
REACHING AS HIGH AS 85 DEGREES BY FRIDAY. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
ALSO SHOWS A 10-20% CHANCE OF AT LEAST TYING DAILY RECORD HIGHS
LATE NEXT WEEK AT ORLANDO AND LEESBURG.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 107 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
SOUTHWEST BREEZES FRESHEN TODAY, PRODUCING POOR TO HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC BY TONIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON SUNDAY, WITH
AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE RESUMING CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW BOATING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE.
SW WINDS 10-20 KT TODAY, BECOMING UP TO 25 KT WELL OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTH ON SUNDAY, 10-17 KT. SEAS
2-4 FT NEARSHORE THIS WEEKEND, UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN
ONSHORE ON MONDAY; SEAS REMAIN 2-5 FT ON MONDAY BEFORE DECREASING
TO 2-3 FT BY MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 107 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z SAT. CANNOT RULE OUT
PATCHY GROUND FOG THROUGH 13Z. SW WINDS INCREASE SAT 10-13 KNOTS
GUSTING UP TO 22 KTS. SCT SHRA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL REACH
NORTHERN TERMINALS BTWN 22Z-02Z THEN REACH SOUTHERN TERMINALS AFT
02Z WHILE GRADUALLY FALLING APART. HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH AT MCO BUT
WITH RAIN PROBS AT 50-60% WILL LIKELY NEED TO INSERT A TEMPO FOR
MVFR SHRA IN LATER TAF PACKAGE. MORE IMPACTING WILL BE THE IFR/LIFR
CIGS (WITH SOME REDUCED VIS) DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. NBM HAS 45% PROB FOR IFR CIGS AT MCO 12Z
SUN, RIGHT AT THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 76 57 67 54 / 30 60 10 0
MCO 76 61 72 55 / 20 60 10 0
MLB 77 58 73 57 / 10 50 20 10
VRB 76 57 75 57 / 0 30 20 10
LEE 75 59 69 52 / 30 70 10 0
SFB 77 59 69 54 / 20 60 10 0
ORL 75 60 71 55 / 20 60 10 0
FPR 76 56 76 57 / 0 20 20 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR AMZ570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR AMZ572-575.
DISCUSSION...HEIL
AVIATION...KELLY
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