777
FXUS62 KMLB 032347
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
647 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
- BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON SETTLE LATER IN THE
EVENING.
- A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. THE
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING IS LOW.
- A WEAK FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SUNDAY TEASES A FEW SPOTS WITH
COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY, THEN SPRINGLIKE WARMTH RETURNS FOR THE
COMING WEEK, WITH MANY SPOTS REACHING THE LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...BREEZY AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT, CURRENTLY DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTH AL-GA, AND HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH FROM BREVARD AND OSCEOLA NORTH, AND AROUND 10
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH TO THE SOUTH, WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING, SETTLING 5-10 MPH LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
RAIN-WISE, WATCHING AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE THE TAMPA
BAY AREA, SOME OF WHICH HAS STARTED TO PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND SOME FLAKES OF SHOWERS NORTH OF I-4 WELL
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LINE OF SHOWERS. THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS, ITSELF WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT, IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SOMETIME BETWEEN 7-9 PM, WEAKENING
AS IT PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE NIGHT. FORCING
AND INSTABILITY ARE LACKING BETWEEN THE LINE OUTRUNNING THE
FRONT/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND ARRIVING AFTER DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION HAS ALL BUT WORN OFF, RESULTING IN MUCAPE VALUES
GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG. COULD ALSO GET BONUS DAYTIME HEATING
UNDER PERFORMANCE FROM THE CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS FROM THE GULF.
NEVERTHELESS, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE LATE EVENING, INCLUDING THE ORLANDO METRO
AREA, SO HAVE KEPT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THIS IS ALSO WHERE
THE HIGHEST POPS AT 50-70% ARE. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE SOUTHWARD AS
THE LINE DISSIPATES THROUGH THE NIGHT, DOWN TO 20% BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE TREASURE COAST TO OKEECHOBEE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
HERE ARE VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. CHANCES FOR MORE THAN HALF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL REMAIN WELL UNDER 10% FOR MOST OF THE THE AREA,
AND ONLY TO AROUND 20% IN NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.
TODAY'S AFTERNOON HIGHS HAVE COME DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES SINCE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER, BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S. WITH THE FRONT AND A TOUCH OF COOLER AIR
NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY, LOWS TONIGHT CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP TO THE M50-L60S (ALSO ABOVE NORMAL).
SUNDAY-MONDAY...THE FRONT ITSELF FINALLY REACHES CENTRAL FLORIDA
SUNDAY MORNING A BIT AFTER SUNRISE, PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY, AND DEPARTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING (STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING). LOOKING PRETTY
GLOOMY FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY AS LOW CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, LINGERING ACROSS THE
NORTH WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. FOG THAT COULD BECOME DENSE AND
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A MILE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM
EARLY THROUGH LATE MORNING. WON'T GET A MAJOR COOL DOWN FROM THIS
FRONT, GENERALLY JUST SEEING THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS KNOCKED DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL, AT BEST. AFTERNOON
HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY MAKE IT TO THE U60S-L70S UP NORTH (NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL) BETWEEN THE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT. LITTLE IF ANY COOLING WILL BE SEEN DOWN SOUTH WHERE
SUNDAY HIGHS STILL MAKE IT TO THE M-U70S (NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL)
DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL AND AIRMASS MODIFICATION. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING DROP BACK TO THE 50S, BUT RING IN ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN EARLY MORNING
SHOWER OR TWO LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTH, BUT OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDING OVER FLORIDA PUSHES OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WHILE ELONGATING IN RESPONSE TO A TRAILING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDING BY WELL NORTH OF US, BUT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL HELP KEEP THE TAIL OF THE HIGH
REACHING TO FLORIDA. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BECOME
ONSHORE MONDAY, BRINGING AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK UP TO (OR IN THE
CASE OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES STAYING AT) THE M-U70S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 50S, BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER MONDAY
NIGHT THAN SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW CHANCE (AROUND 20%) OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, WHICH COULD REACH THE
COAST AND MOVE INLAND A BIT.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...WARM BUT MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. BROAD/WEAK RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN US, BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED
BY A SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH MID-WEEK, GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, PUSHING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
WORKING ITS WAS ACROSS THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS PUSHED FURTHER TO SEA BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE SLIDING PAST US TO
THE NORTH, BUT THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE HIGH IS FORECASTING TO
CONTINUE EXTENDING TO FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEPARTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
GENTLE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS DROPS SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA, SHIFTING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS LIFTS BACK
TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP US MOSTLY DRY (WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY), AND WILL
ALSO PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE U70S-L80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WORK THEIR U50-M60S BY THE END.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT..HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC TENUOUSLY COVERING THE LOCAL WATERS SHIFTS
FURTHER OUT TO SEA AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BOATING
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
BUT THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL LIMIT BUILD OF SEAS IN THE GULF
STREAM TO 3-5 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE VOLUSIA WATERS, WHICH EXPANDS TO ALL CENTRAL FLORIDA
ATLANTIC WATERS LATER THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS REMAIN BETTER
CLOSER TO SHORE AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15
KTS FLATTEN SEAS, KEEPING THEM AT 2-3 FT. A LINE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING, WEAKENING AS IT WORKS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY...WINDS BEGIN TO EASE SUNDAY MORNING JUST BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES, DOWN TO 10-15 KTS NEARSHORE AND 15-20 KTS OFFSHORE FROM
THE WEST, SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AS IS IT WORKS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION IN THE GULF STREAM AFTER THE SCA EXPIRES. CONDITIONS
CLOSER TO SHORE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE BEHIND THE FRONT AS 2-4 FT
SEAS BECOME MORE CHOPPY. SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM 3-5 FT. ISOLATED
MARINE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...CHOPPY 3-5 FT SEAS LINGER INTO MONDAY, BUT
OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS RETURN AS THE
LOCAL WATERS REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TAIL OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING FROM THE EASTERN US INTO THE ATLANTIC. WINDS
BECOME EASTERLY 5-10 KTS MONDAY, SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, TURNING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH WEAK SEA
BREEZES AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
ISOLATED MARINE SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY, THEN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.
SEAS SETTLE TO 2-4 FT TUESDAY AND 1-3 FT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
BAND OF LIGHTER SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH AND
EAST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. A WEAKENING BAND OF RAIN/SHOWERS IS ALSO
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THIS
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY PRODUCE
LIGHT RAINFALL WITH VISIBILITIES 6SM OR GREATER, BUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ANY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL LOOKS EXTREMELY LOW AND
THEREFORE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
AS SHOWERS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, STRATUS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL
FL. IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR TO AFTER 08Z,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND INTO KDAB, WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
FORECAST FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. SOME FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR PRODUCING IFR/MVFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO
LIFT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR SUNDAY, BUT
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY FORECAST TO RETURN TO VFR BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.
W/SW WINDS 5-7 KNOTS WILL BECOME N/NW BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT
INTO SUNDAY, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 8-11 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 58 68 56 74 / 60 10 10 10
MCO 61 72 56 77 / 50 10 10 10
MLB 58 73 58 76 / 30 10 10 10
VRB 56 74 57 77 / 20 10 10 10
LEE 58 69 52 75 / 60 10 0 0
SFB 59 69 54 76 / 60 10 10 10
ORL 59 70 56 76 / 50 10 10 10
FPR 56 75 56 78 / 10 10 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ572-575.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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