847
FXUS62 KMLB 041118
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
618 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 103 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
- SOMEWHAT COOLER TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
- A WARMING TREND COMMENCES FOR THE WORK WEEK, WITH MANY INLAND
SPOTS REACHING THE LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
- WETTING RAIN IS UNLIKELY FOR MOST PLACES THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
-----------SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW-----------
EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING, GUIDANCE INITIALIZED A WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER N FL AND GA. ITS SURFACE REFLECTION CONSISTS OF A 1010 MB
LOW-PRESSURE CENTER SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE PARENT LOW TO THE NE GULF. PW VALUES HAVE JUMPED
TO AROUND 1.50", WITH MOISTURE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE. RATHER POOR LAPSE RATES WERE NOTED ON THE 03/23Z
XMR SOUNDING, RESULTING IN LITTLE INSTABILITY. AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO THE W ATLANTIC, IT IS FORECAST TO DRAG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WHILE UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS. BY MONDAY,
A DIFFUSE POCKET OF PVA IN THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW MAY TRANSIT OVER
N FL OR THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS N AMERICA THIS MORNING, BROAD RIDGING WAS CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS, A BLOCKING RIDGE WAS STILL OVER GREENLAND,
AND A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WERE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST. OVER
THE COMING WEEK, THIS PACIFIC ENERGY IS LIKELY TO NUDGE THE RIDGE
OVER THE AMERICAN HEARTLAND EASTWARD. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS QUICKLY
BUILD OVER THE STATE, WITH A STOUT ~590 DAM H5 RIDGE EXPECTED OVER
THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA STRAITS BY AROUND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE,
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS EARLY IN
THE WEEK, WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING BACK TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR
MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK. A COMMON PRODUCER OF JANUARY "THAWS", THE
QUASI-ZONAL JET STREAM OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S. WILL SPREAD
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. FLORIDA SHOULD
RESIDE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGE RESERVOIR OF ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE VALUES HOLD CLOSE TO DRY-SEASON
NORMS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
EVOLUTION IS HIGH: THE 03/12Z ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS REVEALED
BROAD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WORKWEEK.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, DIFFERENCES QUICKLY APPEAR AS THE SUITE BIFURCATES
ON THE SPEED WITH WHICH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE EASTERN
U.S. THESE TIMING DISAGREEMENTS ARE MOST STARK BETWEEN THE AI-EPS
AND AI-GEFS, WITH THE AI-GEFS SOME 12-24 HOURS QUICKER WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER FLORIDA. THE CULPRIT MAY BE HOW THE
GUIDANCE HANDLES THE PHASING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH EJECTING
SUBTROPICAL ENERGY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LATE THIS WORK WEEK.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, MOST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE RETURN OF
NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
-------SENSIBLE WEATHER & IMPACTS-------
NOW - TONIGHT...
A BAND OF SHOWERS, NOW SOUTH OF MELBOURNE, WILL CONTINUE A
DISSIPATING TREND OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. THIS ACTIVITY
IS OUTRUNNING THE FRONT, WHICH WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR. THIS FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING.
THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND WEAKENING NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL CAUSE
QUITE A SPREAD IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY.
OVER THE I-4 CORRIDOR, LOW CLOUDS ARE FAVORED THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON, WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING. SOUTH OF ORLANDO TO TITUSVILLE, EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO BREAK UP EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH LESS COLD
ADVECTION. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S AROUND
DAYTONA BEACH TO THE UPPER 70S CLOSE TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. TRENDED
SLIGHTLY BELOW STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO
LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT WITH SEASONABLE 50S.
WORK WEEK...
QUIET CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE THE MAIN THEMES OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FULL WORK WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR. THE ONLY WILD
CARD COMES ON MONDAY WHEN A WEAK POCKET OF ENERGY PASSES NEARBY,
PERHAPS SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE ATLANTIC THAT MAY SKIRT THE
COASTLINE (<20%).
BENEATH PLENTIFUL SUN AND A FEW CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
READILY JUMP ABOVE NORMAL AS WE NEAR THE "HEART" OF FLORIDA
WINTER. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EACH DAY,
WARMEST INLAND. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES A 25% CHANCE
OF AT LEAST TYING THE RECORD ON FRIDAY AT ORLANDO (84F) AND A 40%
CHANCE AT LEESBURG (82F).
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.
NEXT WEEKEND & BEYOND...
AS MENTIONED, CONFIDENCE QUICKLY SLIPS AS GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE STATE. WHENEVER THE FRONT
DECIDES TO GET DOWN HERE, THE SETUP LOOKS UNFAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN.
MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP SATURDAY ON THE WARM SIDE, LIKELY
REACHING THE LOW 80S IN MANY SPOTS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE THEN
SHOWS A LARGE INTERQUARTILE TEMPERATURE SPREAD BY SUNDAY, AND THE
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST HAS TRENDED COOLER. THERE IS A DEGREE OF
CONSENSUS THAT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 103 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC TODAY WHILE
WEAKENING. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY, THEN QUICKLY NORTHEASTERLY BY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK, THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AND BE FAVORABLE
FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY AS MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE FRONT.
SEAS 2-3 FT NEARSHORE, UP TO 4-5 FT IN THE GULF STREAM THROUGH
MONDAY AS WINDS TURN NNW TO N AROUND 15 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON,
THEN GENERALLY BECOMING NE/E 5-12 KT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS
SUBSIDE ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS TO 2-3 FT FROM LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN FURTHER TO 1-2 FT BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FL TODAY.
CONSIDERABLE STRATUS AND FOG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
PRODUCING LOW CIGS AND AREAS/PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MCO WHERE SUB-
VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z AND POSSIBLY LONGER.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. WIND
FLOW WILL VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 8-11 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS AND FOG
IS FORECAST ESPECIALLY INTERIOR TERMINALS MON MORNING, INCLUDING
MCO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 66 56 74 56 / 10 10 10 0
MCO 72 57 77 59 / 10 0 0 0
MLB 73 58 76 58 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 74 58 77 57 / 10 10 20 10
LEE 68 53 74 56 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 68 55 76 57 / 10 0 0 0
ORL 70 56 77 59 / 10 0 0 0
FPR 75 57 77 57 / 10 10 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEIL
AVIATION...KELLY
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