475
FXUS62 KMLB 042347
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
647 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 227 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
- MINIMAL COOLING BEHIND TODAY'S WEAK FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY STAYING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
- A WARMING TREND COMMENCES FOR THE WORK WEEK, WITH MANY INLAND
SPOTS REACHING THE LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. WETTING
RAIN IS UNLIKELY FOR MOST PLACES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
- FOG THAT COULD BECOME DENSE AND REDUCE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A
MILE DURING THE MORNING COMMUTES WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...TODAY'S FRONT HAS DEPARTED SOUTH OF THE
AREA. MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES REMAIN SOCKED IN UNDER LOW
STRATUS, AND WHILE A FEW BREAKS ARE OPENING UP ALONG COASTAL
VOLUSIA, MOST OF THIS AREA WILL REMAIN OVERCAST UNTIL AROUND
SUNSET. TRENDED SEASONABLY COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS HERE DOWN ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE, GENERALLY
STILL IN THE U60S-L70S, BUT NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA MAY NOT BE
ABLE TO BREAK ABOVE THE M60S. TO THE SOUTH, CLEAR SKIES AND LATER
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL BRING AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN HERE TO THE
M70S, COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
RAIN CHANCES THAT HAVE RETREATED TO THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CREEP BACK TOWARDS LAND TONIGHT, AND CAN'T
RULE OUT A SHOWER BRUSHING THE COAST OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE L50-M50S, UP TO THE L60S ALONG THE SOUTHERNMOST COAST, ONLY
AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING/SATURDAY NIGHT AT MOST,
AND STILL ABOVE NORMAL. FOG THAT COULD BECOME DENSE AND REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A MILE IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TO START THE WORK
WEEK.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...VERY BROAD AND WEAK RIDGING WEAKENED BY
SHORTWAVES TRANSITING THE PATTERN, ONE OF PARTICULAR NOTE SLIDING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, GRADUALLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES
OFFSHORE INTO OPEN OCEAN. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL
SUPPRESS THE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC SOMEWHAT, BUT THE TAIL OF THE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EXTENDING TO FLORIDA. AS THE AXIS OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE DROPS THROUGH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA, WINDS SHIFTING
FROM EASTERLY-ISH TO SOUTHERLY-ISH MONDAY (THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE SO LOOSE WINDS ARE EFFECTIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE), THEN
BECOMING WESTERLY TUESDAY, PUNCTUATED BY ONSHORE SHIFTS IN THE
AFTERNOONS FROM A WEAK SEA BREEZES. LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE
NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON CONVERGENCE LINES THAT DEVELOP IN THE WEAK FLOW, WHICH
COULD PUSH ONSHORE ANY PART OF THE COAST MONDAY, THEN CONFINED TO
THE TREASURE COAST TUESDAY. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS. WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING BACK TO
(OR REMAINING AT, IN THE CASE OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES) THE M-U70S
MONDAY, FURTHER INCREASING TO THE U70S-L80S TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S, UP TO THE L60S ALONG THE SOUTHERNMOST
COAST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG EACH
MORNING.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...GENERALLY QUIET AND WARM THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK, THEN WATCHING FOR OUR NEXT COLD FRONT NEXT
WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS GRADUALLY
AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE WESTERN US AND SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD, DEEPENING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD UNTIL BEING PUSHED OFFSHORE BY THE
APPROACHING TROUGH LATE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH MOVES OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEAST/CANADIAN MARITIMES MIDWEEK, WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND TO FLORIDA.
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING LOW QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
US, REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
FLORIDA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE U70S-L80S START TO CREEP TOWARDS THE M80S INLAND FRIDAY,
APPROACHING A COUPLE LOW HANGING DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M50S-L60S, UP TO THE
M60S ALONG THE SOUTHERNMOST COAST.
MODEL AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN DISAGREEMENT
IN EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
PROJECTION(S) RESULT IN A 24-ISH HOUR DIFFERENCE IN ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND, WITH THE GFS AND CMC BRINGING THE FRONT
THROUGH SATURDAY, AND THE ECM AND UKMET SUNDAY. OFFICIAL FORECAST
GOES WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND AT THIS POINT, WHICH KEEPS SATURDAY
WARMER AND HOLDS OFF COOLING UNTIL SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS HAS
THE EFFECT OF AVERAGING/SMOOTHING RAIN CHANCES TO AROUND 10%, WHEN
THE REAL CHANCES ARE CLOSER TO 20%, JUST A QUESTION OF WHEN.
EPS/GEFS PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 0.10" THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ARE DECENT AT 30-60%, BUT CHANCES FOR GREATER THAN 1" ARE
EFFECTIVELY ZERO.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 227 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US BEHIND TODAY'S FRONT, WHICH HAS
PUSHED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS, WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE HIGH
EXTENDING TO FLORIDA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON QUICKLY VEER EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT AND MONDAY, BECOMING VARIABLE
AT TIMES MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH. CHOPPY 2-4 FT
SEAS THIS AFTERNOON BUILD A BIT IN THE GULF STREAM TO 5 FT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. CONVERGENCE LINES WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT LINES OF
SHOWERS, AND A LIGHTNING STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT BUT CHANCES ARE
VERY LOW (15% OR LESS). TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WINDS SETTLE TO
OFFSHORE (WESTERLY) 5-15 KTS AFTER THE RIDGE AXIS DROPS SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL WATERS, PUNCTUATED BY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM
THE AFTERNOONS TO EARLY OVERNIGHTS BY AN EARLY JANUARY SEA BREEZE.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID TO LATE WEEK BRINGS BACK ONSHORE
(EASTERLY- SOUTHEASTERLY) FLOW. SEAS 2-4 FT TUESDAY MORNING SETTLE
TO 1-3 FT MID TO LATE WEEK. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
LOWER CLOUD COVER PRODUCING MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL FL IS TEMPORARILY BREAKING UP FOR SOME SPOTS, BUT
LINGERING AND ACTUALLY EXPANDING WESTWARD FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY. THE
MODELS ARE HAVING A CHALLENGING TIME WITH THIS AND THE CIG/VIS
FORECAST REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE AND KEPT KDAB/KSFB/KLEE WITH
MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING, WITH STRATUS LOWERING AND EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. HAVE CIGS LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR FOR INTERIOR
SITES NEAR TO AFTER 06Z, WITH IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES IN DEVELOPING
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT DENSE FOG IN SPOTS, PRODUCING
VISIBILITIES OF A HALF MILE OR LESS. AT THE COAST, HAVE AT LEAST
PERIODS IF NOT PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS, WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. ANY STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT AND BREAK UP INTO
MONDAY MORNING, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING GRADUALLY TO VFR INTO
LATE MORNING/TOWARD NOON.
IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY, BUT A FEW ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW, HOWEVER, SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY.
HOWEVER, A WEAK SEA BREEZE MAY FORM ALONG BREVARD COUNTY AND THE
TREASURE COAST, SWITCHING WINDS TO THE E/NE AROUND 7-8 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 55 75 56 77 / 10 10 0 0
MCO 56 77 58 80 / 0 10 0 0
MLB 57 76 58 77 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 57 77 57 78 / 10 10 10 10
LEE 53 75 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 54 77 56 80 / 10 10 0 0
ORL 56 76 58 79 / 0 10 0 0
FPR 56 77 57 79 / 10 10 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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