411
FXUS62 KMLB 230754
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
254 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 141 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS PERSISTS AT ALL
CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC BEACHES. NICE WEATHER IS DECEIVING,
PLEASE REMAIN OUT OF THE SURF.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGHS
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
TODAY-SUNDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY, BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SATURDAY. ALOFT, A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE PENINSULA, WHILE A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND THE
PANHANDLE. LOCALLY, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST. HOWEVER, PWATS
1.3-1.4" AND SUPPORT FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL SUPPORT A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN THE PENINSULA AND THE
BAHAMAS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT ONSHORE INTO
THE TREASURE COAST, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE, DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. BY SUNDAY, ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 8-12 MPH VEER
SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 MPH, AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO END THE WEEKEND.
INSTEAD, THE BIGGEST STORY WILL BE THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES.
WHILE A MAJOR WINTER STORM IMPACTS A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE
EASTERN US, FLORIDA WILL BE DEALING WITH A HEAT WAVE. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY WILL INCREASE EACH DAY INTO SUNDAY.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE
NEAR-RECORD FOR MANY LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.
COOLER ATLANTIC WATERS WILL HELP TO KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE
LOWER TO MID-80S, THOUGH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA BREEZE. REGARDLESS, FORECAST TEMPERATURES
ARE NEAR 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO WARM EACH DAY, WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S REMAINING IN THE
60S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN OTHER MODELS. SHOULD THIS TREND HOLD,
WILL LIKELY SEE MINS TREND WARMER IN FUTURE UPDATES.
MONDAY-FRIDAY...OUR NEXT COLD FRONT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES OFF OF
THE NORTHEAST US COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH LIGHTNING CHANCES ARE LOW
(BELOW 15%) DUE TO LIMITED CAPE. THE FRONT WILL PUT AN END TO THE
HEAT WAVE, THOUGH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST MONDAY MORNING. COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENT NBM FORECAST
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE SETTLED QUICKLY INTO THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED WARMER. WILL LIKELY SEE THIS TREND MAKE ITS WAY INTO NBM
GUIDANCE, UNLESS THERE IS A CHANGE IN THE OTHER MODELS.
REGARDLESS, CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN, WITH BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PRODUCING COLD WIND CHILLS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY,
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MID TO LATE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST, WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTEAD,
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S LOOK LIKELY MOST DAYS, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
START OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 141 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY, WITH A
FEW SHOWERS PERSISTING ALONG AND OFFSHORE FROM THE TREASURE
COAST. ONSHORE FLOW GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
TONIGHT. NEARSHORE, SEAS 3-4 FT ARE FORECAST, WHILE SEAS UP TO 55
FT WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS AT AROUND 10-15 KTS
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER,
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, AS SWELL
BUILDS SEAS TO UP TO 7-8 FT OFFSHORE. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS, WITH SEAS 7-8 FT IN THE GULF
STREAM. INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THEN DEVELOP INTO
MONDAY, AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS. NORTHERLY
WINDS 20-25 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT, BUILD SEAS TO 8-12 FT INTO
TUESDAY, DESPITE SLACKENING WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE OFFSHORE ZONES AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
MEDIUM (30-40%) POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VIS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY
FOG FORMATION. THIS INCLUDES FOR MCO AND OTHER ORLANDO AREA
TERMINALS. THE RISK FOR IFR CONDS IS LOW, AROUND 20% - BUT TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE, WINDS CONTINUE NE 5-10 KT BY
AFTERNOON UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 76 58 75 61 / 0 0 10 0
MCO 80 60 80 64 / 0 0 10 0
MLB 76 60 77 63 / 10 0 10 10
VRB 79 61 79 63 / 10 10 20 10
LEE 79 58 77 61 / 0 0 10 0
SFB 80 58 79 63 / 0 0 10 0
ORL 80 60 79 63 / 0 0 10 0
FPR 79 60 79 63 / 10 10 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...HEIL
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