118
FXUS62 KMLB 231909
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
209 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 209 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
- PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS TO NORTHWEST OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGHS
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
- COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...MAIN WEATHER CONCERN INTO TONIGHT WILL BE FOR A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT
IN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS AREA AS THE MOST FAVORED FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT (HREF PROBABILITIES UP TO 50-70%), BUT PATCHY FOG WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS FOG
MAY BECOME DENSE IN SPOTS, PRODUCING VISIBLILITES OF A HALF MILE OR
LESS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANY FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL LIFT AND DIMINISH BY 9-10 AM. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITIES IF DRIVING ON AREA ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND SHOULD SLOW DOWN IF
ENCOUNTERING DENSE FOG.
A FRONT REMAINS STALLED NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL THEN LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD INTO SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL VEER
ONSHORE WINDS ON SATURDAY TO MORE SOUTHERLY INTO SUNDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE, A MAJOR WINTER STORM
IMPACTS A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND,
HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHING NEAR RECORD VALUES, IN THE MID 80S, BY
SUNDAY. THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE (~20%) FOR ONSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THEN AS FLOW VEERS, ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS LAND. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY AND GUSTY INTO THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY, WITH SPEEDS 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 MPH.
MONDAY-FRIDAY...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA INTO MONDAY, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES OFF OF THE
EASTERN U.S. COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONT, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING, WITH POPS UP TO 30-60%. LIGHTNING CHANCES REMAIN LOW (BELOW
15%) DUE TO LIMITED CAPE. THE FRONT WILL PUT AN END TO THE HEAT
WAVE, THOUGH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST MONDAY MORNING. COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. NBM FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. HOWEVER, SOME OF
THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE, MAINLY THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A TAD
HIGHER WITH MORNING LOWS. REGARDLESS, CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN,
WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PRODUCING COLD WIND CHILLS,
POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY,
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MID TO LATE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST,
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTEAD, BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S LOOK LIKELY MOST DAYS, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE THE START OF A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 209 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...N/NE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOME MORE EASTERLY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS OFFSHORE. BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW,
BUT A BUILDING E/NE SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS UP TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE
OF VOLUSIA COUNTY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 3-5 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS.
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD LEADING TO POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH
SEAS INCREASING TO 6-8 FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO VEER AND BECOME SOUTHERLY INTO
SUNDAY, INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT AND DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE WATERS INTO MONDAY, WITH SHOWERS INCREASING AHEAD AND
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SW WINDS OFFSHORE WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND THEN ARE FORECAST TO BECOME 15-25 KNOTS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT OUT OF THE N/NW ON
MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 25-30
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY NIGHT,
BUILDING SEAS UP TO 7-12 FEET. N/NW WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10-15
KNOTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH SEAS SLOWER TO SUBSIDE,
DECREASING FROM 7-12 FEET TUESDAY MORNING TO 6-8 FEET OVER THE
GULF STREAM WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND 4-6 FEET WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY WITH NE WINDS AT 5-10 KT. WINDS
BECOME N/NNE AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS FORMING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DUE TO
INCREASING CONFIDENCE, HAVING PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INCLUDED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN TEMPOS FOR MCO, LEE, SFB, ISM, AND
DAB STARTING AT 08/09Z, WITH MVFR TEMPOS EVERYWHERE ELSE FOR THOSE
TIMES. CONDITIONS THEN BECOME VFR AROUND 14/15Z SATURDAY WITH NNE
WINDS 5-10 KT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 58 73 61 83 / 10 20 10 0
MCO 60 78 63 86 / 10 10 10 0
MLB 60 76 63 83 / 10 20 10 0
VRB 61 78 63 84 / 10 20 10 0
LEE 56 76 61 83 / 10 10 10 0
SFB 58 77 61 85 / 10 10 10 0
ORL 59 78 63 85 / 10 10 10 0
FPR 60 78 63 84 / 10 20 10 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...WATSON
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