940
FXUS62 KMLB 240747
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
247 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 159 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
- WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, WITH RECORD HIGHS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT LOCAL BEACHES THIS WEEKEND.
- A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BRING COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
TODAY-SUNDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ALREADY
SEEING REDUCTIONS TO ONE MILE OR LESS. USE CAUTION ON THE ROADS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
VISIBILITY. FOG IS FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH AROUND 9 AM BEFORE
DIMINISHING.
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
TODAY, WITH ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING SOUTH OF THE FRONT AT AROUND
10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. INTO SUNDAY, A DEVELOPING POTENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL DRAG THE STALLED BOUNDARY
FARTHER NORTHWARD, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN US. LOCALLY, WINDS SUNDAY BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT LIFTS, WITH THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND GUSTS UP TO
20-25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
ON SUNDAY, THOUGH CAMS SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST AND POSSIBLY THE VOLUSIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON, AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES ALOFT. POPS REMAIN AROUND 20% OR LESS FOR LAND
AREAS.
INSTEAD OF WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS, THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL SEE
SOUTHERLY FLOW LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS, WITH LOWER 80S
INLAND SOUTH OF ORLANDO. BY SUNDAY, RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AT THE COAST, WILL SEE
A BATTLE BETWEEN NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70 ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP A SEA BREEZE AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. ANY SEA BREEZE THAT MANAGES TO FORM IS FORECAST TO BE
PINNED TO OR OFFSHORE FROM THE COAST, PROVIDING MINIMAL RELIEF.
ALL LOCAL CLIMATE SITES, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DAYTONA BEACH, ARE
FORECAST TO WARM TO WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THEIR DAILY RECORD HIGHS.
A FEW MONTHLY RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY WILL ALSO BE THREATENED.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. REGARDLESS, HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE FORECAST NEAR 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
DON'T LET THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED RAIN FOOL YOU,
CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES WILL BE DANGEROUS. A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ENTERING THE
WATER IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED!
MONDAY-FRIDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND
OFFSHORE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, IT WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY. POPS 30-50%, DIMINISHING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
LIMITED CAPE IS FORECAST TO PREVENT ANY LIGHTNING FORMATION.
BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE, THOUGH VEER NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE HEAT WAVE, PRODUCING A TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S, WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WARM INTO THE MID-70S TO LOWER
80S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PENINSULA THURSDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, DESPITE THE FRONT.
COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN, BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 30S FOR ALL BUT THE TREASURE
COAST. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE LIMITED RECOVERY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD, THANKS TO THE REINFORCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN FACT,
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S WILL REMAIN A CONCERN EACH
NIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED, WITH WIND
CHILLS RETURNING TO THE 20S FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA MOST
NIGHTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 159 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. ONSHORE
WINDS 8-12 KTS AND SEAS 3-5 FT.
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL THEN DETERIORATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN POOR
TO HAZARDOUS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. FIRST, SWELL
FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BUILD
SEAS TO UP TO 7-8FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION, INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY WINDS DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEN, A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO OVER THE GULF STREAM. WINDS VEER NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TUESDAY, SEAS IN
THE GULF STREAM WILL REMAIN UP TO 10-13 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEGINNING THIS EVENING
AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE AND EXPAND THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY, BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER FRONT LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
PRIMARY CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE PATCHY FOG AND OR LOW CLOUD FORMATION
THIS MORNING, WHICH MAY DIP TO IFR OR LOWER (20-30% RISK).
ALREADY SEEING VIS REDUCTIONS AT MLB, FPR, AND VRB. WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL REDUCTIONS LATER TONIGHT AROUND THE GREATER
ORLANDO TERMINALS, THOUGH FLUCTUATIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. VIS/CIG
RESTRICTIONS SCATTER OUT BY MID-MORNING WITH VFR IN THE AFTERNOON
AS WINDS BECOME EASTERLY 5-10 KT. A FEW SHRA (20% CHANCE) FOR
MAINLY SUA TODAY, OTHERWISE DRY CONDS ANTICIPATED.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 159 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE DAILY AND MONTHLY
RECORDS FOR SUNDAY, JANUARY 25TH.
FCST DAILY MONTHLY
DAB 83 87 87
LEE 85 85 86
SFB 85 85 89
MCO 86 86 88
MLB 84 85 88
VRB 85 86 88
FPR 84 86 89
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 74 60 83 62 / 10 10 0 30
MCO 79 62 86 67 / 10 10 0 30
MLB 76 62 83 64 / 10 10 10 20
VRB 78 63 85 64 / 20 10 10 10
LEE 77 60 85 63 / 10 10 0 50
SFB 78 61 86 65 / 10 10 0 30
ORL 78 62 86 66 / 10 10 10 30
FPR 78 63 85 64 / 20 10 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR AMZ570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ575.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...HEIL
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