186
FXUS62 KMLB 250507
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1207 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 226 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
- FOG THAT COULD BECOME DENSE AND REDUCE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A
MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT LOCAL BEACHES THIS
WEEKEND.
- VERY WARM THIS WEEKEND, THEN A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BRING
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 935 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
STRATUS HAS BUILT SOUTHWARD INTO VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR INTO THE ORLANDO METRO AREA THROUGH LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
DROPPING TO AROUND 1-2 MILES ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY AS THIS
STRATUS MOVES IN THIS EVENING. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR TO
NORTH OF ORLANDO TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS STRATUS
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY AND NEARSHORE WATERS TO
START IF FOG CONTINUES TO THICKEN. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS
VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MAY SLOW THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF
THIS STRATUS/FOG AND MAY ALSO LEAD TO IMPROVING VISIBILITIES IN
SOME SPOTS TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY FOG IS FORECAST TO LIFT AND
DIMINISH SOON AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH MID-MORNING SUNDAY, AS DAYTIME
HEATING KICKS IN AND LOW LEVEL MIXING INCREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
REST OF TODAY-SUNDAY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA, NEAR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY,
BEGINS TO LIFT AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT BY A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER AND TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER IMPACTING MUCH OF THE REST OF THE US
NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS ONSHORE WINDS
TODAY SHIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW, KEEPING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE M70-L80S PUSH INTO
THE M-U80S INLAND SUNDAY, UPWARDS OF 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
NEAR DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS, AND THREATENING A FEW MONTHLY
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS. A SEA BREEZE WILL ATTEMPT TO FORM
SUNDAY, BUT THE OPPOSING OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP IT
PINNED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST. AT THE MOMENT HIGHS SUNDAY
ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE L-M80S,
STILL THREATENING DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS, THOUGH DAYTONA
WILL BE A STRETCH. HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT HIGHS HERE REACHING THE
U80S AS WELL IF THE SEA BREEZE ENDS UP OFFSHORE MOST/ALL OF THE
DAY.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH, THEN INCREASE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH. A MODERATE
BREEZE AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS COULD PUSH ONSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD (POPS 10-20% ALONG THE COAST) THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND COULD BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A MILE. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE CLEARING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, BUT A FEW
SPOTS COULD SEE REDUCED VISIBILITY LINGER LATER INTO THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES WILL BE DANGEROUS DESPITE THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED RAIN CHANCES. A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
ENTER THE WATER IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED!
NEXT WEEK (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND OFFSHORE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST,
IT WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY.
POPS 30-50%, DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LIMITED CAPE IS FORECAST TO PREVENT
ANY LIGHTNING FORMATION. BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE MONDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT, THOUGH VEER NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL PUT
AN END TO THE HEAT WAVE, PRODUCING A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S,
WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WARM INTO THE MID-70S TO LOWER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PENINSULA THURSDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, DESPITE THE SECOND
FRONT. COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN, BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 30S FOR ALL BUT THE
TREASURE COAST. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE LIMITED RECOVERY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD, THANKS TO THE REINFORCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN FACT,
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S WILL REMAIN A CONCERN EACH
NIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED, WITH WIND
CHILLS RETURNING TO THE 20S FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA MOST
NIGHTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 226 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC TO FLORIDA TODAY IS SHUNTED SOUTH
BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER AND TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FLORIDA
AND THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW
DEPARTS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD, FOLLOWED BY
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST, WITH ANOTHER FRONT
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
ONSHORE WINDS 5-15 KTS TODAY VEER THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL ARRIVING TONIGHT WILL CAUSE BOATING
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AHEAD OF INCREASING WINDS, AS SEAS 5-7
FT IN THE GULF STREAM AND 4-6 FT CLOSER TO SHORE BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SUNDAY INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON, FURTHER
INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER MONDAY WHILE
REMAINING 15-25 KTS, BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS THEN SURGE TO 25-30 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 6-9 FT NEARSHORE AND OVER 10 FT IN THE GULF
STREAM. NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY, BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOWER
TO SUBSIDE ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE ALBEIT CHOPPY WEDNESDAY, THEN DETERIORATE AGAIN WITH THE
NEXT FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD BE WHIPPED UP TODAY AND
SUNDAY, THEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A LIGHTNING
STORM WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
MCO IMPACT:
- INTERMITTENT IFR / LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS
AND INTERVALS OF FOG.
A GROWING BANK OF VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAVE SETTLED OVER
SFT/LEE/DAB THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS SLOWLY WORKING SOUTHWARD
BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR S OF MCO DUE TO AN INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SURFACE. EXPECT THIS GENERAL
AREA TO SEE VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 12-14Z BEFORE
IMPROVEMENTS THEREAFTER.
LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH, WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT, FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 226 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE DAILY AND MONTHLY
RECORDS FOR SUNDAY, JANUARY 25TH.
FCST DAILY MONTHLY
DAB 83 87 87
LEE 84 85 86
SFB 85 85 89
MCO 86 86 88
MLB 82 85 88
VRB 84 86 88
FPR 84 86 89
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 83 64 72 34 / 0 30 20 0
MCO 85 65 74 37 / 0 30 30 0
MLB 83 66 78 43 / 0 10 40 0
VRB 85 67 80 46 / 0 10 40 0
LEE 84 63 69 32 / 0 50 20 0
SFB 85 65 73 35 / 0 30 30 0
ORL 85 66 73 37 / 0 30 30 0
FPR 85 66 80 47 / 0 10 40 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
FLZ041-044-144.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
MONDAY FOR AMZ572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR AMZ575.
UPDATE...WEITLICH
AVIATION...HEIL
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