278
FXUS62 KMLB 251821
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
121 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 615 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FOR GREATER ORLANDO AND POINTS
NORTHWARD. VISIBILITIES TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN AREAS OF
FOG THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
- NEAR-RECORD WARMTH TODAY. DON'T LET THE SEEMINGLY MILD
CONDITIONS FOOL YOU, THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
BEACHES!
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD, DRY WEATHER BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT. A
FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE AND INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTIES
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 615 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
A COMBINATION OF VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAVE ENVELOPED THE I-4
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING, WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE IN
SPOTS. THIS SHOULD LIFT INTO A VERY LOW STRATUS THEN BE ADVECTED
OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
LARGE WINTER STORM TO OUR NORTHWEST.
PLENTY OF BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AND A GUSTY BREEZE SHOULD STILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO SOAR TO NEAR-RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON (MID 80S). IF
YOU LIKE THE WARMTH, TAKE ADVANTAGE OF TODAY BECAUSE IT'S NOT
STICKING AROUND...
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...A BANK OF FOG CONTINUES TO CREEP SOUTHWARD THIS
MORNING, HAVING REACHED THE AREA OF SR-528 AND I-95 PRIOR TO 2
AM. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BELOW 1 MILE ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THIS
AREA AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE, ORANGE,
SEMINOLE, VOLUSIA, AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES, AS WELL AS THE
ADJACENT VOLUSIA COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS. WILL MONITOR THE VERY
SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE POSSIBLE
EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH SUNRISE,
WHICH WILL HELP STALL OR EVEN REVERSE THE PROGRESSION. REGARDLESS,
INCREASING WINDS AFTER SUNRISE WILL HELP TO CLEAR ANY LINGERING
FOG BY AROUND 9 AM.
A STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY, AS LOW PRESSURE
WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT FROM 925MB WINDS 25-30 KTS, WITH
WINDS 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WARM, MOIST
AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ALONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH
HIGHS RISING TO NEAR- RECORD LEVELS AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST IN THE MID-80S,
WITH UPPER 80S POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH OF ORLANDO. A
LIMITING FACTOR TO HIGHS WILL BE ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4, AS FOG LIFTS. NEVERTHELESS, ALL OF
THE LOCAL CLIMATE SITES, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DAYTONA BEACH, ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THEIR RESPECTIVE
DAILY RECORD HIGHS. A FEW MAY APPROACH THE MONTHLY RECORD HIGHS
FOR JANUARY, SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
DON'T LET THE WARM, DRY WEATHER FOOL YOU, BEACH CONDITIONS WILL
BE DANGEROUS, WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. ENTERING THE WATER
IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED TO BREEZY OVERNIGHT, AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND NUDGES A
COLD FRONT NEARER TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST NORTH AND WEST OF ORLANDO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH
SUNRISE. POPS AROUND 30-50%, WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH REMAIN DRY
INTO DAY BREAK. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.
MONDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA
MONDAY. POPS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY, AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES 20-40%
WILL BEGIN THE MORNING, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON. LOW CAPE IS
EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY LIGHTNING STORM FORMATION OVER LAND AREAS.
COOLER, MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA ALONG BREEZY AND
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO NEARER TO
NORMAL NORTH OF MELBOURNE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. TO THE SOUTH, A LONGER PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER 80S AGAIN.
DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO TANK FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, TO AS LOW AS THE TEENS BY MONDAY NIGHT, AS
PWATS FALL WELL BELOW 0.5". NEEDLESS TO SAY, NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED BY THE EVENING HOURS, WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
INSTEAD, COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN, AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 30S FOR
ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH, WIND CHILLS BELOW 30 ARE
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS
EXPECTED. THE TREASURE COAST WILL BE LARGELY SPARED FROM THE MUCH
COLDER WEATHER THANKS TO HIGHER MOISTURE OFF OF THE ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER, LOWS NEAR TO JUST BELOW 40 ARE EXPECTED FOR INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF INDIAN RIVER AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES AND WINDS WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID-40S.
TUESDAY-SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST INTO MID-WEEK. THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHICH MAY BE BREEZY
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. A REINFORCING, DRY FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST LATER IN THE WEEK, PROLONGING THE ELEVATED NORTHERLY
FLOW. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL, AS PWATS GENERALLY REMAIN 0.6" OR
LESS. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE ABNORMALLY PERSISTENT PATTERN OF
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO
MID-60S ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
RANGING FROM AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S WILL ALSO CONTINUE, SO
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS, AS WELL AS WIND CHILLS
BELOW 30 DEGREES. EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED COLD WEATHER HEADLINES
THROUGH THE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY, AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SWELL BUILDS INTO
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY 15-20 KTS
WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET
TONIGHT. SEAS 4-6 FT NEARSHORE AND 6-8 FT IN THE GULF STREAM
TODAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY,
VEERING WINDS NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING THEM TO UP TO 20-30 KTS
BY MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS RESPOND ACCORDINGLY, BUILDING TO 8-12 FT IN
THE GULF STREAM. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO OFFSHORE FROM THE
TREASURE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO
AROUND 15 KTS OR LESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE AND REMAIN POOR TO HAZARDOUS FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY, A REINFORCING, DRY COLD FRONT
WILL DETERIORATE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. AFTER MONDAY AFTERNOON, NO
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
MAINLY VFR BUT BREEZY/GUSTY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, AND
WINDS COULD SHIFT ABRUPTLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A SCT020-030 CU FIELD ACROSS ECFL THAT HAS BEEN BKN
AT TIMES, ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FEW TEMPOS FOR MVFR CIGS, SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT ABOVE 030 IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON (UP TO AROUND A
5 KT CROSSWIND AT KMCO). A SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED, BUT THE
STOUT OFFSHORE FLOW IS KEEPING IT PINNED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE THE
COAST, CAUSING WINDS AT COASTAL TERMINALS TO PERIODICALLY SHIFT
SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE REMAINING BREEZY/GUSTY. WINDS SETTLE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 00Z.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ECFL MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, MVFR-IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD ECFL FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFTER 006Z
(REACHING KMCO AROUND 09Z). THERE ARE LOW (20% OR LESS) CHANCES
FOR CIGS TO DROP TO LIFR. WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP VIS
VFR, BUT IF CIGS DROP TO LIFR THEN VIS COULD TANK AS WELL. PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE PACKAGE CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE AFTER 14Z, BUT MVFR IMPACTS COULD PERSIST INTO THE LATE
MORNING AND POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO PRECEDE THE
FRONT BETWEEN 09Z-19Z AMONGST THE LOW CIGS, AND ANY VIS IMPACTS
SHOULD BE BRIEF. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT,
BECOMING BREEZY/GUSTY AGAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY,
AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS 15-20 MPH WILL GUST TO 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. MINIMUM RH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS, THOUGH VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSION COULD
CAUSE CONTAINMENT ISSUES.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY, BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT,
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED NORTHERLY WINDS AND NEAR-CRITICAL
MINIMUM RH WILL BEGIN AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. VERY
SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RESULT, THOUGH THERE WILL
BE DAYS WHERE THE BREEZIER WINDS DO NOT COINCIDE WITH THE LOWEST
RH.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE DAILY AND MONTHLY
RECORDS FOR SUNDAY, JANUARY 25TH.
FCST DAILY MONTHLY
DAB 83 87 87
LEE 84 85 86
SFB 85 85 89
MCO 85 86 88
MLB 84 85 88
VRB 85 86 88
FPR 84 86 89
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 63 72 35 53 / 30 20 0 0
MCO 67 73 37 56 / 30 30 0 0
MLB 65 77 42 59 / 10 40 0 0
VRB 65 80 45 61 / 0 40 0 0
LEE 62 69 32 53 / 40 30 0 0
SFB 66 73 35 56 / 30 30 0 0
ORL 66 73 37 56 / 40 30 0 0
FPR 65 80 45 62 / 0 40 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
FLZ041-044-144.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ552-555-575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ575.
UPDATE...HEIL
AVIATION...HALEY
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