522
FXUS62 KMLB 260547
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1247 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 147 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD, DRY WEATHER BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT. A
FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE AND INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTIES
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES, LIKELY!
- BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS SLOW TO CLEAR THIS
MORNING, ESP ALONG/NORTH OF I-4. INCREASING S/SSW FLOW HAVE AIDED TO
FINALLY MIX OUT THE GRUNGE FROM EARLIER. THROUGH THE DAY, LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL STEADILY TRACK EASTWARD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH AFOREMENTIONED WINDS INCREASING
TO 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. SSW WINDS
DECREASE, BUT STILL REMAIN ELEVATED A BIT, AT 5-10 MPH/10MPH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A VERY WARM PRE-FRONTAL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE. MAY BE CLOSE TO A FEW
RECORDS. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, EXCEPT FOR VERY ISOLD
(~10PCT) LIGHT SHOWER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.
BEACH CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS, WITH A HIGH RISK OF NUMEROUS,
STRONG, LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. ENTERING THE CHILLY WATER
REMAINS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HEAD E/NE AND WILL MOVE OFF OF
THE MID-ATLC COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ACT TO DRAG A STRONG COLD INTO
THE FL PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH LAKE/NORTH
VOLUSIA BY SUNRISE MON MORNING. ISOLD TO SCT (20-40PCT) SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH OF A TITUSVILLE-
KENANSVILLE LINE THRU DAYBREAK MON. ELEVATED WIND FLOW AND
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS MILD WITH CONDITIONS
MUGGY. FORECAST MIN VALUES IN THE 60S AREAWIDE.
AS FOR FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING, 925MB WINDS
RANGE FROM 20-30 KTS OFF THE DECK (LOWEST ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY).
THIS WOULD SUGGEST MORE OF STRATUS (LOW CLOUD) FORMATION VS FOG,
SO PRESENTLY WILL LEAVE ABSENT FOR NOW. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK IF THEY WISH TO ADD SOME PATCHY MENTION ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY.
MON-MON NIGHT...THE STRONG FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PLOW THRU ECFL
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON (TREASURE COAST). ISOLD-SCT
(20-40PCT) PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE AREAWIDE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MOSTLY LIGHT. THE TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING POP CHANCES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. LIGHTNING STORM ACTIVITY IS NOT
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY IN THE DAY WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS (NORTH-SOUTH) THRU THE AFTN. COOLER,
DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GRADUALLY
FALLING TEMPS FURTHER INTO THE DAY. BREEZY W/NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW.
A RANGE OF HIGHS FOR THIS DAY WILL BE L70S NORTH OF I-4 WITH
M-U70S SOUTHWARD, PERHAPS A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS NEAR VERO BEACH
SOUTH. L80S FOR MUCH OF MARTIN COUNTY. DEWPOINTS IN THE M-U60S AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BOTTOM OUT INTO THE 40S BY EARLY
EVENING, FURTHER TANKING INTO THE TEENS/20S TO L30S FOR MOST MON
NIGHT.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BARREL DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH A VENGEANCE MON
NIGHT. A FREEZE WATCH CURRENTLY IS IN PLACE FOR MON OVERNIGHT FOR
LAKE AND INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTIES. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS
LIKELY NECESSARY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MON OVERNIGHT AS WELL. TEMPS
WITHIN THE FREEZE WATCH MAY DIP DOWN INTO THE U20S TO L30S FOR A FEW
HOURS, WHILE M-U30S EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO NEAR LAKE OKEE AND COASTAL
VOLUSIA AND INTERIOR REACHES OF BREVARD AND WESTERN INDIAN RIVER
COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE, TEMPS RANGE FROM THE L-M40S ALONG THE
BREVARD/INDIAN RIVER COASTS AND INTERIOR TREASURE COAST COUNTIES,
WITH U40S TO L50S CLOSER TOWARDS THE ST. LUCIE/MARTIN COASTS.
LOWEST WIND CHILL VALUES MON OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING WILL
SEE WIDESPREAD 20S AND L30S ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE INTERIOR,
VOLUSIA & SPACE COASTS, AND M-U30S FOR INTERIOR TREASURE COAST
COUNTIES, SAVE FOR NEAR 40F TO U40S FOR MUCH OF THE IMMEDIATE
TREASURE COAST. ALL OF THIS AS BREEZY NW WINDS CONTINUE 15-20 MPH
WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS!
TUE-SUN...PREVIOUS MODIFIED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THRU MID-WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHICH MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. A REINFORCING, DRY COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST ON THU, PROLONGING THE ELEVATED NORTHERLY FLOW. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL, AS PWATS GENERALLY REMAIN 0.6" OR LESS THRU AT
LEAST SAT. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE ABNORMALLY PERSISTENT PATTERN
OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO
M60S (FEW U60S FAR SOUTH) ARE FORECAST THRU THE WORK-WEEK AND QUITE
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND, RANGING FROM AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND L40S WILL ALSO
CONTINUE, SO WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS, AS WELL AS
LOWEST WIND CHILLS/APPARENT TEMPS BELOW 30 DEGREES. EXPECT TO SEE
CONTINUED COLD WEATHER HEADLINES THROUGH THE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 147 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXIST, AS S/SSW WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT AND SWELL BUILDS. WIND
SPEEDS 15-20 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS OFFSHORE NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET TONIGHT. SEAS BUILDING 3-6 FT NEAR SHORE AND 6-7 FT
IN THE GULF STREAM. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS MON, VEERING
WINDS NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 20-30 KTS BY MON NIGHT. SEAS
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY, BUILDING TO 8-12 FT IN THE GULF STREAM AND 6-8
FT NEAR SHORE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND CANNOT
RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO, MAINLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.
WHILE WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO 15-20 KTS TUE AND 15 KTS OR LESS WED,
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AND REMAIN POOR TO HAZARDOUS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS INTO WED MORNING. BY THU, A REINFORCING,
DRY COLD FRONT WILL DETERIORATE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. AFTER MON
AFTERNOON, NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH LATE WORK-WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
MVFR/IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
SPREADING NE FROM WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL AND WILL AFFECT MANY
TERMINALS. PATCHY LIFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE THRU 14Z BUT ARE NOT
EXPLICITLY FORECAST IN THE TAFS. LESS CONFIDENT FOR VSBY
REDUCTIONS DUE TO MECHANICAL MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS. NBM ONLY
PRODUCES ABOUT 20% CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AFTER 14Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 17-18Z, BUT
COULD SEE MVFR CIGS HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS KVRB-KSUA. A
BAND OF BROKEN SHOWERS WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE FRONT AND HAVE DEPICTED THIS AS VCSH IN THE TAFS.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S/SW AROUND 8-10 KNOTS THRU SUNRISE AND
BECOME W/NW AND INCREASE TO 13-16 KNOTS MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH FROM NW-SE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH WINDS
OUT OF THE N/NW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 147 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON, AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE M-U80S. BREEZY/GUSTY SWRLY WINDS
15-20 MPH WILL GUST TO 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH NO PRECIP
EXPECTED. MIN RH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS,
THOUGH VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSION COULD CAUSE CONTAINMENT
ISSUES.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA MON MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON, BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY-MID MON AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT, A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF ELEVATED NORTHERLY WINDS AND CRITICAL TO NEAR-CRITICAL MINIMUM RH
WILL BEGIN TUE AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK-WEEK. VERY
SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RESULT, THOUGH THERE WILL BE
DAYS WHERE THE BREEZIER WINDS DO NOT COINCIDE WITH THE LOWEST RH.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 147 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE DAILY AND MONTHLY
RECORDS FOR SUNDAY (TODAY), JANUARY 25TH.
FCST DAILY MONTHLY
DAB 83 87 87
LEE 84 85 86
SFB 85 85 89
MCO 85 86 88
MLB 84 85 88
VRB 85 86 88
FPR 84 86 89
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 72 33 52 33 / 40 0 0 0
MCO 74 37 55 35 / 40 0 0 0
MLB 78 42 58 38 / 40 0 0 0
VRB 80 46 61 40 / 40 0 0 0
LEE 70 32 53 35 / 30 0 0 0
SFB 73 35 55 33 / 40 0 0 0
ORL 73 36 55 35 / 40 0 0 0
FPR 82 45 61 39 / 40 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR FLZ041-
044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-547.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR FLZ041-044-144.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR FLZ041-044>046-053-144.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ555-575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ575.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...KELLY
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