287
FXUS62 KMLB 260702 CCA
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
202 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
- REMAINING MILD TO WARM TODAY. A COLD FRONT BRINGS A 30-50%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. WORSENING BOATING CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT.
- WINDY TONIGHT AS DECIDEDLY COLDER AIR ARRIVES. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE SPACE AND
TREASURE COAST. IN THE ADVISORY AREA, WIND CHILLS OF 30 DEGREES
OR LESS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
- MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF UNUSUALLY COLD WEATHER YET TO COME. A FREEZE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF ORLANDO TONIGHT, AND A
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GREATER ORLANDO, OSCEOLA
COUNTY, AND POINTS NORTHWARD FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. CONSIDER
COVERING TENDER PLANTS OR BRINGING THEM INSIDE, IF POSSIBLE.
- CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST FOR
THE NEXT WEEK TO TEN DAYS, IF NOT LONGER. THERE IS A LOW TO
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
-----------SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW-----------
THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN ACROSS N AMERICA IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
THIS MORNING. PHASING OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JET STREAM
HAS RESULTED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
MIDWEST. THIS SPAWNED A DANGEROUS WINTER STORM STRETCHING FROM
TEXAS TO NEW ENGLAND. TO ITS SOUTH, ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGING
EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN INTO THE TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA RESIDES BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES.
LOW PRESSURE HAS MIGRATED INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S., WITH A SHARP
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS
BOUNDARY DIVIDES AN ARCTIC AIR MASS TO ITS NORTHWEST FROM A
SPRING-LIKE WARM SECTOR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE GRAND
ENSEMBLE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIVE THIS COLD FRONT EASTWARD AND THROUGH
FLORIDA TODAY. 5,000 FT (H85) TEMPERATURES CRASH DRAMATICALLY --
FROM THE 95TH TO THE 10TH PERCENTILES OF CLIMATOLOGY -- BETWEEN
NOW AND TUESDAY MORNING. COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, CURRENTLY
OVER KANSAS, DRIFTS TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS NECESSARY
TO SEND TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE VALUES WELL BELOW NORMAL BY
MONDAY NIGHT.
THE DOOR REMAINS WIDE OPEN FOR ADDITIONAL SURGES OF ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO
TEN DAYS. TELECONNECTION GRAPHS SHOW A 'TRIFECTA' OF SORTS FOR
UNUSUALLY COLD WEATHER. FIRST, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS REACHING
A NADIR OF -5 EARLY THIS WEEK AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEGATIVE
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. NAO HAS ALSO GONE NEGATIVE,
AND RIGHT ON CUE, THE PNA IS GOING POSITIVE. HEMISPHERIC CHARTS
TELL THE TALE AS H5 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE ARCTIC. THIS DISPLACES MUCH COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE
MID-LATITUDES.
WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE, TIMING OUT AND ASSESSING THE RISKS FOR IMPACTFUL COLD
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL REQUIRE A
CLOSER LOOK AT INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN. THERE ARE A PAIR OF FEATURES WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON FROM
LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRST, A PIECE OF ENERGY SHOULD PASS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND THURSDAY, REINFORCING THE ARCTIC AIR MASS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. TRAILING CLOSE BEHIND APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FLORIDA BY AROUND SATURDAY. CLUSTER ANALYSIS FROM THE
25/12Z SUITE, ALONG WITH EARLY-ARRIVING 26/00Z GUIDANCE, LEANED
TOWARD SOME PHASING OF THIS FEATURE WITH A LOBE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW,
EVIDENCED BY A VERY LARGE H5 HEIGHT INTERQUARTILE SPREAD BY NEXT
SUNDAY. IF THIS DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM, THE
COLD RISKS FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA WOULD BECOME EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT
BY THE WEEKEND.
-------SENSIBLE WEATHER & IMPACTS-------
TODAY - TONIGHT...
AS I TYPE, ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA STILL SITS IN THE LOW 70S,
WHICH IS VERY UNCOMMON FOR LATE JANUARY. WE WILL WAKE UP TO OUR
LAST BALMY MORNING FOR QUITE SOME TIME TO COME. A COLD FRONT
ENTERS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING, EXITING THE TREASURE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS IT PASSES, A RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. COVERAGE TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 30-50%.
VERY LIGHT TOTALS ARE ANTICIPATED, AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHTNING IS
20% OR LESS.
WE EXPECT AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO WARM QUICKLY TODAY, WITH
LOW AND MID 80S SOUTH OF MELBOURNE TO OKEECHOBEE. FARTHER NORTH,
LOW TO MID 70S ARE FORECAST. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TURN BREEZY,
GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE PASSING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL THEN FORCE A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH HERE
THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES, WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, TAPPING
INTO THE MUCH COLDER AIR JUST OFF TO OUR NORTH. AFTER SUNSET,
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH OVER LAND, AND UP TO 30-35 MPH ON THE BARRIER
ISLANDS, WILL CONTINUE AS TEMPS START TO PLUMMET.
BY DAYBREAK, TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER
MOST OF THE INTERIOR AND ALL OF VOLUSIA COUNTY, WITH 40S IN MOST
PLACES SOUTH OF MELBOURNE. THERE IS A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE OF
A FREEZE ACROSS PARTS OF LAKE AND INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTIES WHERE
A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. WIND CHILLS NOSEDIVE INTO THE
MID-UPPER 20S BY DAYBREAK FROM DAYTONA BEACH TO OKEECHOBEE AND
POINTS WESTWARD, PROMPTING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT
AREAS ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD. PLEASE TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT YOU AND YOUR PETS FROM THE COLD.
TUESDAY - FRIDAY...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, COLD MORNINGS AND CRISP
AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE. VERY MODEST MODERATION, AT BEST,
IS FORECAST DUE TO A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR CLIPPING
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AROUND THURSDAY. THIS IS DESPITE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. EARLY MORNING LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM 10-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS ALSO 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, THEN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR GREATER ORLANDO, OSCEOLA CO
AND POINTS NORTH OVER THE INTERIOR FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE
FREEZE PROBABILITIES ARE LESS THAN 30% WITHIN METRO ORLANDO, THEY
QUICKLY JUMP TO 50-80% OVER EXURBAN AND RURAL LOCALES SURROUNDING
THE CITY. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE
NEEDED EACH MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AS WIND CHILLS DIP INTO THE
MID-UPPER 20S NEAR AND WEST OF I-95.
DESPITE FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE, RH RECOVERIES AT NIGHT LOOK HIGH
ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF FROST TO FORM BEGINNING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN RURAL AREAS WEST OF I-95. OVER
THESE SPOTS, FOLKS WITH ANNUAL AND TROPICAL PLANTS WILL NEED TO
PROTECT THEM FOR MULTIPLE DAYS.
WEEKEND...
TO START OFF, THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT THE FORECAST FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN HIGHLY VARIABLE FOR AT LEAST TWO TO THREE MORE
DAYS. THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IS RESOLVING WHETHER TWO DISTINCT PIECES
OF ENERGY, CURRENTLY THOUSANDS OF MILES APART, WILL INTERACT TO FORM
A LARGE NOR'EASTER-TYPE STORM ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE THE
TREND HAS BEEN MOVING IN THAT DIRECTION OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO,
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE FEATURES SEPARATED AS THEY MAKE
THEIR CLOSEST APPROACH TO FLORIDA. THIS DISTINCTION IS CRITICAL:
WHEN COMPARED TO A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM, A STRENGTHENING LOW OFF
THE EAST COAST COULD VERY EFFECTIVELY PULL ARCTIC AIR MUCH
FARTHER SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PENINSULA.
WHAT THIS MEANS IS A PERIOD OF HEIGHTENED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
BOTH MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. WE WILL CARRY LOW RAIN CHANCES
OF 20-30% ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE TRIES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
ARRIVING ENERGY. IF THE TWO FEATURES MENTIONED BEFORE DO INTERACT,
A BLAST OF WINDY AND MUCH COLDER AIR WOULD LIKELY BE FELT HERE IN
CENTRAL FLORIDA BEGINNING SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CLEARLY ILLUSTRATES THE LOW-CONFIDENCE
SCENARIO WE ARE DEALING WITH, AS INTERQUARTILE SPREADS JUMP TO 10
TO 15 DEGREES FOR BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
WHETHER TEMPERATURES REMAIN MANAGEABLY COOLER THAN NORMAL OR BECOME
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL IS STILL IN QUESTION. WHILE THIS
IS MORE OF A REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO SIGNAL, THE OVERALL
PATTERN WE ARE ENTERING HAS HISTORICALLY SUPPORTED MAJOR FREEZES
AND SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR OUTBREAKS IN FLORIDA. THOSE MAKING PLANS
OUTDOORS OR WHOM HAVE SENSITIVE AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECAST AS THIS HOPEFULLY BECOMES CLEARER
BY MID-WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
A PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS IS GETTING UNDERWAY EARLY
THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
TODAY, CAUSING WINDS TO TURN OFFSHORE THEN FRESHEN QUICKLY OUT OF
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT, CAUSING VERY ROUGH SEAS. HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH BY MID-WEEK, ALLOWING WINDS
AND SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER, LESS INTENSE,
SURGE OF NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS A WEAKER COLD
FRONT DRIFTS THROUGH THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OFFSHORE WILL EXPAND TO INCLUDE ALL ZONES
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOMING WNW THIS AFTERNOON,
10-20 KT, INCREASING OUT OF THE NW TO 20-30 KT TONIGHT. SEAS 4-6
FT TODAY WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT, EXCEPT UP TO 13 FT IN THE GULF
STREAM TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH LATE ON TUESDAY TO NW 10-15 KT,
ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 3-6 FT BY TUESDAY NIGHT, EXCEPT UP TO
8 FT IN THE GULF STREAM. SEAS GENERALLY 4-5 FT WEDNESDAY, UP TO 7
FT BY THURSDAY IN THE GULF STREAM AS THE NEXT SURGE OF NORTHWEST
WINDS OVERTAKES THE LOCAL ATLANTIC.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
MVFR/IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
SPREADING NE FROM WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL AND WILL AFFECT MANY
TERMINALS. PATCHY LIFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE THRU 14Z BUT ARE NOT
EXPLICITLY FORECAST IN THE TAFS. LESS CONFIDENT FOR VSBY
REDUCTIONS DUE TO MECHANICAL MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS. NBM ONLY
PRODUCES ABOUT 20% CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AFTER 14Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 17-18Z, BUT
COULD SEE MVFR CIGS HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS KVRB-KSUA. A
BAND OF BROKEN SHOWERS WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE FRONT AND HAVE DEPICTED THIS AS VCSH IN THE TAFS.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S/SW AROUND 8-10 KNOTS THRU SUNRISE AND
BECOME W/NW AND INCREASE TO 13-16 KNOTS MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH FROM NW-SE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH WINDS
OUT OF THE N/NW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT, MUCH DRIER AIR SETTLES OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA BEGINNING TOMORROW. SENSITIVE TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY, WITH FIRE-SENSITIVE
WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH MID-WEEK. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 8-15
MPH ARE EXPECTED AS RH VALUES DROP TO 25-35% OVER THE INTERIOR. RH
VALUES DROP TO 20-30% ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST ONCE AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY
TO AROUND 5-10 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 72 33 52 33 / 40 0 0 0
MCO 74 37 55 35 / 40 0 0 0
MLB 78 42 58 38 / 40 0 0 0
VRB 80 46 61 40 / 40 0 0 0
LEE 70 32 53 35 / 30 0 0 0
SFB 73 35 55 33 / 40 0 0 0
ORL 73 36 55 35 / 40 0 0 0
FPR 82 45 61 39 / 40 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR FLZ041-
044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-547.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR FLZ041-044-144.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR FLZ041-044>046-053-144.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ555-575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ570-572.
DISCUSSION...HEIL
AVIATION...KELLY
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