930
FXUS62 KMLB 262347
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
647 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
- DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT AS A STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST BREEZE PRODUCES FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AND LEADS
TO BUILDING SEAS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
COASTAL WATERS.
- WINDY TONIGHT AS DECIDEDLY COLDER AIR ARRIVES. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE SPACE AND
TREASURE COASTS. IN THE ADVISORY AREA, WIND CHILLS OF 30
DEGREES OR LESS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
- MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF UNUSUALLY COLD WEATHER YET TO COME. A FREEZE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF ORLANDO OVERNIGHT, AND
A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GREATER ORLANDO, OSCEOLA
COUNTY, AND POINTS NORTHWARD FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. CONSIDER
COVERING TENDER PLANTS OR BRINGING THEM INSIDE, IF POSSIBLE.
- CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST FOR
THE NEXT WEEK TO TEN DAYS, IF NOT LONGER. THERE IS A LOW TO
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...THE STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SWEEP INTO
THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS NOW PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TREASURE WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BREAKS IN CLOUD-
COVER SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (NORTH-SOUTH). COOLER,
DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BREEZY/GUSTY W/NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH, PERHAPS UP TO AROUND 35 ACROSS BARRIER
ISLANDS TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BARREL DOWN THE PENINSULA
WITH A VENGEANCE OVERNIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FOR LAKE AND INTERIOR VOLUSIA
COUNTIES. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA, KEEPING OUT IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.
TEMPS WITHIN THE FREEZE WARNING MAY DIP DOWN INTO THE U20S TO L30S
FOR A FEW HOURS, WHILE M-U30S EXTEND TO COASTAL VOLUSIA AND
SOUTHWARD TO LAKE OKEE AND INTERIOR REACHES OF BREVARD AND WESTERN
INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE, TEMPS RANGE FROM THE L-M40S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE BREVARD/INDIAN RIVER COASTS AND INTERIOR TREASURE
COAST COUNTIES, WITH U40S TO L50S CLOSER TOWARDS THE ST.
LUCIE/MARTIN COASTS. LOWEST WIND CHILL VALUES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUE MORNING WILL SEE WIDESPREAD 20S AND L30S ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF
THE INTERIOR, VOLUSIA & SPACE COASTS, AND M-U30S FOR COASTAL INDIAN
RIVER/COASTAL ST. LUCIE COUNTIES, SAVE FOR NEAR 40F TO M40S FOR
COASTAL MARTIN COUNTY.
TUE-FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
TOWARDS THE FL PENINSULA THRU MID-WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHICH MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL, AS PWATS GENERALLY
REMAIN 0.6" OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE ABNORMALLY PERSISTENT PATTERN OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. MAX
TEMPS IN THE 50S TO M60S (FEW U60S FAR SOUTH) ARE FORECAST THRU THE
WORK-WEEK, RANGING FROM AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO EACH
DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND L40S WILL ALSO CONTINUE, AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS, AS WELL AS LOWEST WIND CHILLS/APPARENT TEMPS BELOW 30
DEGREES. EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED COLD WEATHER HEADLINES THROUGH THE
WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT, BUT COULD AT
LEAST SEE SOME PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING TUE/WED
OVERNIGHTS, PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF FROST, TOO, ESP IN RURAL AREAS
WEST OF I-95. THOSE WITH ANNUAL AND TROPICAL PLANTS WILL NEED TO
TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT THEM FOR MULTIPLE DAYS.
WEEKEND-MON...THE COLD WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EXTENDED. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST & ATLC SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM COULD ACT TO PULL
IN MUCH COLDER (ARCTIC) AIR FUNNELING IT DOWN THE PENINSULA.
CONFIDENCE MAY REMAIN LOW THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL FURTHER
MODEL CONSISTENCY PRESENTS ITSELF. THERE WILL BE ISOLD/SCT PRECIP
CHANCES FRI NIGHT-SAT EVENING OVER LAND PRESENTLY. PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO CREATE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ECFL, WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE
BREEZY/WINDY/GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS LAND - ESP NEAR THE COAST
LATE SAT INTO SUN.
PREVIOUS...WHETHER TEMPERATURES REMAIN MANAGEABLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
OR BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL IS STILL IN QUESTION.
WHILE THIS IS MORE OF A REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO SIGNAL, THE
OVERALL PATTERN WE ARE ENTERING HAS HISTORICALLY SUPPORTED MAJOR
FREEZES AND SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR OUTBREAKS IN FLORIDA. THOSE MAKING
PLANS OUTDOORS OR WHOM HAVE SENSITIVE AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECAST AS THIS HOPEFULLY BECOMES CLEARER
BY MID-WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 228 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
BOATING CONDITIONS QUICKLY BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS INTO THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AS STRONG NW/N WINDS FILTER DOWN THE COAST
BEHIND THE MOST RECENT STRONG COLD FRONT. AS SUCH, A GALE WARNING
GOES INTO EFFECT AREAWIDE EARLY THIS EVENING LASTING UNTIL 12Z/7AM
TUE MORNING. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS 25-30+ KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE DURING THIS TIME. VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 7-10 FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 13 FT
OFFSHORE/GULF STREAM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE AFTER
THIS TIME AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SEAS MUCH SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE, ESP GULF STREAM, INTO MID-WEEK. ANOTHER (LESSER) SURGE IN
WINDS/SEAS OCCURS ON THU WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THEN,
THIS WEEKEND (WHILE CONFIDENCE STILL LOW) WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM BRING, AGAIN, VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS (WINDS/SEAS) TO THE LOCAL WATERS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AS A COLDER/DRIER
AIRMASS BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT KEEPING SKIES CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR. A SURGE IN NW WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING BEHIND
THE FRONT, WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15-20 KNOTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 22-25 KNOTS FORECAST. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY, BECOMING N/NW 10-14 KNOTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KNOTS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 7-10 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 228 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
BEHIND A RECENT STRONG COLD FRONT, MUCH DRIER/COLDER AIR SETTLES
OVER CENTRAL FL PENINSULA BEGINNING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU
NEXT WEEKEND. SENSITIVE TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST ON TUE, WITH FIRE-SENSITIVE WEATHER PERSISTING
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 8-15 MPH ARE
EXPECTED AS RH VALUES DROP TO 25-35% OVER THE INTERIOR. RH VALUES
DROP TO 20-30% ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST ONCE AGAIN ON
WED AND THU, BUT NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 5-10
MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 33 52 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 36 56 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 40 58 38 62 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 44 61 39 64 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 31 54 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 34 55 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 36 55 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 44 62 39 64 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR FLZ041-
044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-347-547.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR FLZ041-044-144.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR FLZ041-044>046-053-144.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ550-552-555-570-572-
575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ550-
552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ555-
570-572-575.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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