583
FXUS62 KMLB 280558
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1258 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
- COLD WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, WITH A FREEZE WARNING AND COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND A FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN A COLD WEATHER OUTBREAK OVER
THIS WEEKEND, WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING SUB-30 DEGREE LOW
TEMPERATURES AND SUB-20 DEGREE WIND CHILL VALUES AREAWIDE.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS NEED TO START PLANNING NOW FOR THE COLD
WEATHER.
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS, IMPROVING LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. A RETURN OF DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS IS
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND AS A NOR'EASTER DEVELOPS WITHIN
VICINITY OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
TONIGHT...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, ALLOWING THE RIDGE AXIS FROM AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND THE GULF TO EXTEND TOWARDS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY FLOW LOCALLY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, HELPING TO ADVECT COLDER AIR TOWARDS
THE PENINSULA. THIS AIR MASS WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY, WITH NO CHANCE
FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL ONCE AGAIN INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS A MAJORITY OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH LOCATIONS
ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT TONIGHT
FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM ON WEDNESDAY FOR ALL INTERIOR COUNTIES
EXCEPT OKEECHOBEE AND FOR ALL OF VOLUSIA COUNTY. RESIDENTS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO CHECK IN ON NEIGHBORS, ESPECIALLY THE ELDERLY, TO
ENSURE THEY ARE WELL TAKEN CARE OF AND PREPARED AHEAD OF THE COLD.
PLANTS, PARTICULARLY THOSE SENSITIVE TO COLDER TEMPERATURES,
SHOULD ALSO BE PROTECTED OR STORED IN A WARMER LOCATION TO AVOID
ANY DAMAGE. FINALLY, PETS SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS AND KEPT WARM.
IN ADDITION TO THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES, WIND CHILL VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 30 DEGREES IN MANY SPOTS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA DUE TO THE PERSISTENT NORTH FLOW AND WIND SPEEDS
OF 5 TO 10 MPH CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLDEST
SPOTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR PRIMARILY IN RURAL AND SUBURBAN
AREAS. DUE TO THIS, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9
AM, THOUGH THIS EXCLUDES A MAJORITY OF THE TREASURE COAST. WIND
CHILL VALUES THIS LOW CAN CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA FOR THOSE WITHOUT
ACCESS TO PROPER CLOTHING AND HEATING, SO PROPER PRECAUTIONS
SHOULD BE TAKEN. SPACE HEATER SAFETY IS ALSO CRITICAL, SO IF
OPTING TO UTILIZE A SPACE HEATER, BE SURE TO KEEP IT AWAY FROM
FLAMMABLE OBJECTS AND PLUG IT INTO THE WALL, NOT AN EXTENSION
CORD.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...THE POLAR VORTEX RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COLDER
WEATHER WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS CANADA INTO MID-WEEK,
GRADUALLY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. A
SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO ROUND THE FLANK OF THIS TROUGH,
DIGGING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL LOCALLY REINFORCE THE COLD, DRY AIR MASS SITUATED
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK, WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC AS
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW RETURNS ALOFT.
LOCALLY, DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH PWATS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW 0.5" AREAWIDE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEAR-ZERO THROUGH
THURSDAY. MOISTURE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A PATTERN CHANGE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH ISOLATED
RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE OUT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO EVADE THE PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THANKS TO THE REINFORCEMENT
OF THAT COLD AIR MASS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN ARE
SLATED TO FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A FREEZE
WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS THE INTERIOR COUNTIES AND INLAND
VOLUSIA. HREF AND NBM GUIDANCE ARE CURRENTLY MAINTAINING A 30-50%
CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN THESE LOCATIONS,
SO WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
REMAINING AROUND 5 TO 7 MPH. THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF WIND
CHILL VALUES FALLING BELOW 30 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA, SO ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING, A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA,
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S AND EVEN LOW 70S IN SOME SPOTS ON
FRIDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...WHILE FOCUS ON THE NEAR-TERM COLD WEATHER
IS IMPORTANT, THERE SHOULD BE SPECIAL ATTENTION PAID TO THE
ANTICIPATED SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND. FRIDAY
NIGHT, THE WESTWARD FLANK OF THE POLAR VORTEX IS FORECAST TO SWING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION, BECOMING A STRONG CUT-
OFF LOW IN THE MID-LEVELS NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA INTO
SATURDAY. THIS MID-LEVEL LOW IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO SWING
NORTHEASTWARD OUT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, RIDING ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE US THROUGH LATE WEEKEND. THIS MID-LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOR'EASTER WITHIN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA,
WITH THE LOW FIRST DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVING ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD
TO A RETURN OF 40-60% RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASING AS THE NOR'EASTER
MOVES OUT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
LOW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHARPLY TIGHTENS, WITH WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH AREAWIDE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY
SUNDAY, A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL
LEAD TO DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND LIGHTER WINDS AREAWIDE,
CONTINUING INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO
ADVECT A COLD AIR MASS TOWARDS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING A SHARP DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS INCREASING CONSISTENCY AND CONFIDENCE THAT EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COULD SEE SOME OF ITS COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE
2010, WITH SUB-30 TEMPERATURES BEING FORECAST NEARLY AREAWIDE ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THERE IS ALSO GROWING CONFIDENCE IN
HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS (TEMPERATURES <= 27 DEGREES), WITH NBM
GUIDANCE SHOWING A 50-80% CHANCE OF THESE TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO PERSIST INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH FORECASTED VALUES
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES. ANOTHER CAUSE FOR CONCERN ARE
WIND CHILL VALUES, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WINDY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS OF 20 DEGREES AND LESS ARE CURRENTLY
BEING FORECAST WITHIN THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS, WHICH LEADS TO HIGH CONCERNS FOR THOSE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE HOUSING, HEAT, AND CLOTHING. WITH THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALREADY HINTING AT BELOW 20 DEGREE WIND CHILL VALUES,
EXTREME COLD WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND
FOR A MAJORITY OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. OVERALL, RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR THE COLD OUTBREAK THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND. START PLANNING NOW ON HOW TO PROTECT THE FOUR P'S;
PEOPLE, PETS, PLANTS, AND PIPES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS TOWARDS THE LOCAL
WATERS. A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A REDEVELOPMENT OF POOR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS, BUT THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
AS THE HIGH SITS OVERHEAD, WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW 10 KNOTS AND
SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET FORECAST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE
GULF, STRENGTHENING INTO A NOR'EASTER BY SATURDAY. INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
45 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, CAUSING SEAS TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE
AND BECOME DANGEROUS INTO SATURDAY. BOATING CONDITIONS ARE THEN
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT N/NW
WIND FLOW 5 KNOTS INTERIOR AND 5-10 KNOTS COAST THROUGH SUNRISE.
THEN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SPEEDS WED, 5-10 KNOTS INLAND AND 10-12
KNOTS COAST...ALL MAINTAINING A NORTH WIND COMPONENT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
WEEK, RESULTING IN RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 35% WEDNESDAY NEARLY
AREAWIDE AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR ON THURSDAY. WHILE
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS,
SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE HIGH DUE TO THE LOW RH
VALUES. MOISTURE IMPROVES BY FRIDAY, BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
NOR'EASTER WITHIN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRY, COLD
AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 58 35 60 42 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 60 36 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 62 38 64 48 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 63 36 66 48 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 58 33 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 59 35 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 59 36 63 43 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 64 35 67 47 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ041-
044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-347-547-647.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR FLZ041-
044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547-647.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ041-044>046-
053-141-144.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
FLZ041-044>046-053-058-144.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
FLZ141-247-254-547.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ572-575.
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...KELLY
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