608
FXUS62 KMLB 281125
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
625 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
- COLD MORNING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. A FREEZE WARNING,
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, AND FROST ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. PLAN TO WEAR EXTRA LAYERS AS
WIND CHILLS DIP INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
- RARE, SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC COLD OUTBREAK ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S,
ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS, EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MANY
PLACES SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN ON MONDAY MORNING.
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ON SATURDAY. THERE
IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF PEAK WIND GUSTS REACHING 35-45 MPH.
CONSIDER HOW ADVERSE WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY MAY AFFECT
YOUR ABILITY TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THE COLD ARRIVING
SATURDAY NIGHT. DANGEROUS GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
-----------SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW-----------
COLD, CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE HAS OVERTAKEN THE SOUTHEAST AND
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. A BROAD TROUGH SITS ALOFT ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THE ARCTIC JET STREAM, ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DISPLACED
LOBE OF THE POLAR VORTEX, SPANS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITHIN
THE MID-LATITUDE POLAR JET, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING
FLORIDA FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY, AND ANOTHER FEATURE IS PUSHING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXTREMELY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE TROPOSPHERE, AND H85 (5 KFT) TEMPS HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND +4
DEG C.
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVELY STRONG AGREEMENT WITH PATTERN
EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THROUGH FRIDAY, THE WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE POLAR JET WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE LOWER 48 AND
TRAVERSE THE BASE OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. A RIDGE OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA WILL EXPAND POLEWARD BY THURSDAY, CONNECTING WITH
STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE ARCTIC. AT THE APEX OF
THE RIDGE, ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW A WAVE BREAK OVER HUDSON BAY ON
THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DISLODGE THE POLAR VORTEX AND SEND
IT EVEN DEEPER INTO THE U.S. ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL INTRODUCE BRIEF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER FLORIDA, ENSURING A SHORT PERIOD OF
THERMAL MODERATION TO END THE WORK WEEK.
ANY WARMING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS FLORIDA REMAINS THREATENED BY
A MAJOR COLD AIR EPISODE THIS WEEKEND. AS THE ARCTIC JET GETS
SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, IT WILL ENCOUNTER ENHANCED POLAR
AND SUBTROPICAL JET SEGMENTS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND GULF.
NEARLY ALL 27/12Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT PHASING OF THE POLAR,
SUBTROPICAL, AND ARCTIC JET STREAMS, CARVING OUT A VERY DEEP H5
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
SPAWN A NOR'EASTER THAT DEVELOPS NEAR FLORIDA BEFORE PULLING UP
THE EAST COAST. WHILE THERE REMAIN SUBTLE DISAGREEMENTS WITH THE
DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH, THE SETUP IS WELL RESOLVED.
MODEL FIELDS HAVE COME INTO STRONG AGREEMENT, SUPPORTING A
REMARKABLE PARAMETER SPACE OVER FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. FOR INSTANCE,
NAEFS MEMBERS INDICATE THAT H5 HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT BELOW THE CFSR
MODEL CLIMATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS NE FLORIDA. H85 TEMPERATURES
AS LOW AS -8 TO -10 DEG C ARE ALSO AT OR BELOW THE 30-YEAR MODEL
CLIMATE. FINALLY, THE LATEST CHECK OF THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST
INDEX SHOWS MINT AND MAXT VALUES BELOW -0.95, INDICATIVE OF
CONDITIONS APPROACHING THE EXTREME OF THE EPS MODEL CLIMATE.
BEHIND THE NOR'EASTER, DENSE, COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, PRODUCING A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER FLORIDA AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. AT ITS PEAK, H925
(2500 FT) WINDS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH 35-45 KT AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTHWARD. THE ARCTIC HIGH REACHES FLORIDA BY AROUND MONDAY OR
TUESDAY, BUT A LINGERING TROUGH IS FAVORED ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURE MODERATION
WILL COMMENCE, IT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
-------SENSIBLE WEATHER & IMPACTS-------
TODAY - FRIDAY...
WITH ONLY MOISTURE-STARVED DISTURBANCES PASSING NEAR THE STATE,
CHILLY AND QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST. THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS
LARGELY UNCHANGED. WELL BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
CAUSE MODERATE IMPACTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, ESPECIALLY IN
THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
FOR THOSE VENTURING OUTDOORS, EARLY DAY WIND CHILLS WILL BITE,
REACHING THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S BOTH THIS MORNING AND TOMORROW FOR
ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY GOES
UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT, AND ANOTHER
WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE SAME AREAS, PLUS INLAND ST LUCIE CO.,
EARLY THURSDAY. BUNDLE UP IN EXTRA LAYERS AND CHECK IN ON THOSE
WHO MAY NOT HAVE ACCESS TO ADEQUATE HEAT/SHELTER. WIND CHILLS
RECOVER SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY MORNING, MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S INLAND
TO LOW/MID 40S AT THE COAST.
LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET,
PROMPTING ANOTHER BOUT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
INTERIOR AND ALL OF VOLUSIA CO. WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM, BUT GO
INTO EFFECT AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE SAME AREA LATE TONIGHT, PLUS
OKEECHOBEE CO., BUT EXCLUDING COASTAL VOLUSIA CO. FOR GREATER
ORLANDO, FREEZE PROBABILITIES ARE 30% OR LESS INSIDE THE BYPASS
EXPRESSWAYS, BUT OUTLYING AND EXURBAN COMMUNITIES WILL HAVE A
40-60% CHANCE OF A FREEZE. THAT RISK JUMPS TO 70-90% FOR AREAS
LIKE RURAL SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY. A FROST ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED EAST OF THE FREEZE WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT. FROST AND/OR
FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL THREATEN TROPICAL AND ANNUAL PLANTS -
CONTINUE TO PROTECT THEM. FOR THE LATEST HAZARDS AT YOUR LOCATION,
PLEASE VISIT WEATHER.GOV/MLB.
DESPITE A FEW CLOUDS AND MORE SUNSHINE, HIGHS TODAY AND THURSDAY
ONLY REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S-UPPER 60S, WARMEST SOUTH. FRIDAY
WILL BE A GOOD DAY TO DO ANY OUTDOOR PREPARATIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND'S
ARCTIC OUTBREAK, AS AFTERNOON HIGHS JUMP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S.
WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...THREAT OF DAMAGING FREEZE, ARCTIC COLD OUTBREAK CONTINUES TO
INCREASE BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER IS STILL FAVORED BY MOST, IF NOT ALL,
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AS WE PUSH INTO SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL FORM
VERY CLOSE TO FLORIDA BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS IT
PASSES BY EARLY SATURDAY, WE STILL CARRY 30-50% CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. RAINFALL TALLIES STILL LOOK ON THE LIGHT SIDE. BY LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE INITIAL IMPACT WILL BE A BURST OF STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS. A GLANCE AT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED THAT PEAK WIND GUSTS
FROM 35-45 MPH ARE ON THE TABLE FOR SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE LOW SPINS UP OFFSHORE. KEEP THIS IN MIND WHEN
CONSIDERING WHEN AND HOW TO PROTECT ANY TENDER VEGETATION!
WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY MORE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT,
PUSHING ARCTIC AIR DOWN THE PENINSULA. ANY ‘WARMING’
INFLUENCE FROM THE GULF IS UNLIKELY TO REACH EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA DUE TO PARCEL TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING FROM THE PANHANDLE
AND POINTS NORTH. DAILY RECORD LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY MODERATE, WITH ADDITIONAL
FREEZES ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY, IF NOT EVEN TUESDAY MORNING.
EXTREME COLD RISKS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
UPDATES:
SUNDAY AM: THERE IS A 60-90% CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE (<= 27 DEG F)
ON SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT MARTIN COUNTY (20-50%). MUCH
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA CURRENTLY HAS A 70-90% CHANCE OF WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS.
MONDAY AM: THE RISK FOR A HARD FREEZE (<= 27 DEG F) IS 50-80%
FOR MANY LOCATIONS, EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS
WHERE THE PROBABILITIES ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER (30-60%). BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, THOUGH WITH LIGHTER WINDS
(UPPER TEENS-MID 20S).
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IS
FORECAST ON TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER SUPPORT, INCLUDING PROBABILITIES
AND DURATIONS OF SPECIFIC TEMPERATURES FOR YOUR LOCATION, VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/MLB/COLDSUPPORT.
WITH A WIDESPREAD FREEZE AND EXTREME COLD EVENT NOW LIKELY,
RESIDENTS, OFFICIALS, AND AGRICULTURAL OPERATIONS SHOULD BEGIN
CONSIDERING HOW TO PREPARE. THOSE WITH INADEQUATE SHELTER OR HEAT
WILL BE MOST AFFECTED. EXPOSED PIPES MAY FREEZE, AND SOME NON-
NATIVE PLANTS AND TREES WILL SUCCUMB TO THE ELEMENTS IF NOT
PROPERLY PROTECTED. THE RISK TO NON-COLD-HARDY PLANTS AND PALMS
IS MUCH HIGHER DUE TO THE WIND-DRIVEN COLD THAT IS EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD FAIL TO REACH 50 DEGREES NEAR
AND NORTH OF I-4, PERHAPS REACHING THE LOW 50S SOUTH OF
MELBOURNE. BY TUESDAY, MOST SPOTS SHOULD RETURN TO THE 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF NUDGES EASTWARD TODAY,
BRIEFLY ENHANCING WINDS AND PRODUCING POOR BOATING CONDITIONS IN THE
GULF STREAM TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF IMPROVED CONDITIONS IS FORECAST
AS THE HIGH SITS NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR FLORIDA BY FRIDAY NIGHT,
EXITING INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. THIS IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A STRONG NOR'EASTER AS IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DANGEROUS
GALE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THIS STORM.
NW WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON, THEN INCREASE TO
15-20 KT IN THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS
DECREASE AGAIN TO N 10 KT. LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY,
5-10 KT, INCREASING BY SATURDAY MORNING TO 15-20 KT. GALE-FORCE
GUSTS ARRIVING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT THROUGH TOMORROW, EXCEPT UP TO 6 FT IN THE
GULF STREAM TONIGHT. 2-3 FT SEAS ON FRIDAY, BUILDING RAPIDLY BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH N/NW WIND
FLOW 5-10 KNOTS INLAND AND 10-12 KNOTS COAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 210 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
CHILLY, DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FIRE-SENSITIVE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY DUE
TO VERY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS (18-30%, EXCEPT
HIGHER IMMEDIATE COAST) ALONG WITH A NORTH WIND UP TO AROUND 10
MPH. DISPERSION BECOMES GOOD THIS AFTERNOON.
ON THURSDAY, AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON (N TO
NE 5-10 MPH) WILL PUSH THE LOWEST RH READINGS DEEPER OVER THE
INTERIOR, 25-30% FROM ORLANDO TO OKEECHOBEE WESTWARD. DISPERSION
FAIR TO GOOD ON THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RHS
(35-50%). THE NEXT BOUT OF MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 58 35 60 42 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 60 36 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 62 38 64 48 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 63 36 66 48 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 58 33 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 59 35 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 59 36 63 43 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 64 35 67 47 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ041-
044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-347-547-647.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR FLZ041-
044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547-647.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ041-044>046-
053-141-144.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
FLZ041-044>046-053-058-144.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
FLZ141-247-254-547.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEIL
AVIATION...KELLY
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