720
FXUS62 KMLB 290855
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
- A BRIEF RESPITE FROM FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AROUND 70F.
- RARE, SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC COLD OUTBREAK ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S,
ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS, BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS.
- WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCE OF PEAK WIND GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH. DANGEROUS GALE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
TODAY-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. WIND FLOW TURNS NE TODAY AND MAX TEMPS
CLIMB A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY YET REMAINING BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NO FREEZE CONCERNS TONIGHT AS
TEMPS HOLD IN THE 40S EXCEPT UPPER 30S FAR NW WITH PATCHY FROST.
SOME MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED NORTHWARD FRI AND BRING A SMALL
SHOWER CHANCE TO THE TREASURE COAST, OTHERWISE DRY WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR A CHANGE AROUND 70/LOW 70S. THIS
WARMING TREND WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER.
SAT-WED...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM VERY
CLOSE TO FLORIDA FRI NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
DEVELOPING INTO A NOR'EASTER. AS IT PASSES BY EARLY SATURDAY,
RAIN CHANCES HAVE LOWERED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH (NOW 20%)
WHILE STILL CARRYING 30-40% SOUTH OF ORLANDO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK QUITE MEAGER, LESS THAN ONE TENTH /0.10/ OF AN INCH. BY LATE
SAT MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. THE INITIAL IMPACT WILL BE A BURST OF STRONG WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN CONSISTENT
SHOWING PEAK WIND GUSTS FROM 35-45 MPH FOR SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFFSHORE.
WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY MORE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT,
PUSHING ARCTIC AIR DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH LITTLE TO NO GULF
MODIFICATION AS PARCEL TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATE FROM THE PANHANDLE
AND POINTS NORTH. DAILY RECORD LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY
MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL FREEZE/HARD FREEZE ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ONLY SLOWLY MODERATE WITH ANOTHER FREEZE
TUE MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR.
EXTREME COLD RISKS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
UPDATES:
SUNDAY AM: THERE IS A 60-90% CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE (<= 27 DEG F)
ON SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT MARTIN COUNTY (20-50%). MUCH
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA CURRENTLY HAS A 70-90% CHANCE OF WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS NORTH OF
ORLANDO.
MONDAY AM: THE RISK FOR A HARD FREEZE (<= 27 DEG F) IS 50-80%
FOR MANY LOCATIONS, EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS
WHERE THE PROBABILITIES ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER (30-60%). BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, THOUGH WITH LIGHTER WINDS
(UPPER TEENS-MID 20S).
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IS
FORECAST ON TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER SUPPORT, INCLUDING PROBABILITIES
AND DURATIONS OF SPECIFIC TEMPERATURES FOR YOUR LOCATION, VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/MLB/COLDSUPPORT.
WITH A WIDESPREAD FREEZE AND EXTREME COLD EVENT NOW LIKELY,
RESIDENTS, OFFICIALS, AND AGRICULTURAL OPERATIONS SHOULD BEGIN
CONSIDERING HOW TO PREPARE. THOSE WITH INADEQUATE SHELTER OR HEAT
WILL BE MOST AFFECTED. EXPOSED PIPES MAY FREEZE, AND SOME NON-
NATIVE PLANTS AND TREES WILL SUCCUMB TO THE ELEMENTS IF NOT
PROPERLY PROTECTED. THE RISK TO NON-COLD-HARDY PLANTS AND PALMS
IS MUCH HIGHER DUE TO THE WIND-DRIVEN COLD THAT IS EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD HOLD IN THE 40S ORLANDO
NORTHWARD AND ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S SOUTH OF MELBOURNE DESPITE
FULL SUNSHINE. A GRADUAL (SLOW) WARMING TREND COMMENCES NEXT WEEK
WITH MAX TEMPS RETURNING TO THE 60S TUE AND LOWER 70S WED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SE US. BRIEFLY
ENHANCED N/NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
A PERIOD OF IMPROVED CONDITIONS IS FORECAST AS THE HIGH SITS
NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO FORM OFFSHORE NE FLORIDA BY EARLY SAT, AND RAPIDLY
DEEPEN BECOMING A STRONG NOR'EASTER AS IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. DANGEROUS GALE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND REACH THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TUESDAY.
NW WINDS 15 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME N THIS AFTERNOON AND
DECREASE NEAR 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY FRI WILL
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
INCREASING BY SATURDAY MORNING TO 15-20 KT. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE FURTHER DURING SAT WITH SUSTAINED GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARRIVING BY SATURDAY EVE. CONDITIONS REMAIN HAZARDOUS SUNDAY WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA THEN A MORE NOTICEABLY IMPROVEMENT MON AND ESP
TUE.
SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT NEARSHORE TODAY UP TO 6 FT IN THE GULF STREAM
THIS MORNING. SEAS 2-3 FT ON FRIDAY, BUILDING RAPIDLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON 7-9 FT OFFSHORE AND 4-6 FT NEARSHORE. FULLY DEVELOPED
SEAS OF 14-16 FT ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF STREAM SAT NIGHT/EARLY
SUN WITH SUSTAINED GALE CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS APPROACHING
STORM-FORCE. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AS NORTH WIND COMPONENT
PERSISTS (ALBEIT DECREASING) EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD KEEP
SEAS 7-9 FT MON IN THE GULF STREAM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL ECFL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 KTS TONIGHT VEER IN THE MORNING,
BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING
LIGHT THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
A DEVELOPING ONSHORE (NE) WIND FLOW TODAY UP TO 10 MPH WILL PUSH THE
LOWEST RH VALUES DEEPER OVER THE INTERIOR, REACHING NEAR 30 PERCENT
WEST OF ORLANDO. MOISTURE INCREASES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT BUT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FRIDAY, LESS THAN 10 MPH, BECOMING WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH ARE
FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 61 45 69 46 / 0 0 0 20
MCO 65 46 71 50 / 0 0 0 20
MLB 65 49 71 47 / 0 0 10 10
VRB 67 49 71 47 / 0 0 20 10
LEE 63 43 70 46 / 0 0 0 30
SFB 64 44 70 47 / 0 0 0 20
ORL 64 46 70 50 / 0 0 0 20
FPR 68 48 71 47 / 0 0 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ041-044>046-
053-058-144.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ041-
044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-347-547-647.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ141-247-254-
547.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...HALEY
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