356
FXUS62 KMLB 130805
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
305 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
- CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING. LOCALIZED VISIBILITIES OF A
A HALF-MILE OR LESS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE VERY SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL BUT SHOULD MAKE LITTLE DENT IN THE
DROUGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
TODAY... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD TODAY. CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH NO MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES HOLD NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES, MOSTLY RANGING THE MID TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THE WARMEST AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR LOOK TO TOUCH 80
DEGREES. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ALREADY OBSERVED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST. LOCALIZED
VISIBILITIES OF A HALF-MILE OR LESS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE FOG
DISSIPATES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
SATURDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SATURDAY. A DIFFUSE MOISTURE BOUNDARY
WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH, BECOMING ORIENTED NORTH-
SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE LOCAL WATERS, BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW LOW RAIN CHANCES (20%) ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ON SATURDAY,
PRIMARILY FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD. WINDS BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THERE REMAINS NOTABLE SPREAD AMONG GLOBAL MODELS IN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT THE EARLIEST SOLUTIONS KEEP THE
GREATEST RAIN CHANCES (70-90%) AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY, CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN RAIN CHANCES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DURING THE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. A NBM
SOLUTION INTRODUCES A 20-40% POP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AT THE TIME GIVEN THE SPREAD, BUT
COULD EVEN TREND A TAD LOWER AS GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS COME INTO
FURTHER AGREEMENT. THE HIGHEST QPF SPREADS CENTRAL FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH VALUES AT THE 50TH
PERCENTILE CURRENTLY REMAINING LESS THAN A HALF INCH. WHILE
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, LESS
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN HOW LONG RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS POPS AROUND 40-60% DURING
THE DAY, BUT THIS WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY THE TIMING AND
SPEED OF THE FRONT. A LIMITED STORM ENVIRONMENT EXISTS AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT, PRIMARILY CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST SHEAR
PROFILES.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN FORECAST FOR SOME LOCATIONS MONDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
SPREAD THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHILE
HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST IN ONSHORE FLOW.
DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER SUNDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. A MODELED
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS ON MONDAY RANGING THE MID 70S ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH LOW 80S ACROSS OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST.
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ON SATURDAY MORNING WARM THROUGH THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY... A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS AND
HEIGHT ANOMALIES INCREASE ALOFT. MOST AREAS REACH THE 80S BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS SPREADING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE THE
DAILY NORMAL. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH ON TUESDAY BECOME
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY. LIGHT FLOW SHOULD ALLOW A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
NORTH WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS GRADUALLY VEER ONSHORE INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. POOR TO HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP SUNDAY AS WINDS INCREASE (15-25 KTS) AND
TURN SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS BUILD 5-6 FT OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. THE FRONT PASSES THE LOCAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTH AND DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN LIMIT WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS INTO MID WEEK, BUT AN INCREASING SWELL WILL BUILD SEAS
5-7 FT OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF STREAM TUESDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES
(~20%) ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND SATURDAY, INCREASING
SUNDAY (30-50%) AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT (70-90%).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
PATCHY MVFR/LOW END VFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM MLB NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS LEE. MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THESE CLOUDS WELL, SO FOR NOW
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS AT AFFECTED TERMINALS THROUGH 8Z AND WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE EXCEPTION IS LEE, WHICH HAS
MAINTAINED PREVAILING MVFR AND HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEEING
SOME INTRUSION OF FG FROM THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA.
ELSEWHERE, BOUNCY VIS REDUCTIONS AT FPR AND SUA APPEARS TO BE
MOSTLY MIFG, BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER SUNRISE, WITH LIGHTER NORTHERLY
WINDS VEERING NE AND INCREASING TO UP TO 8-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS THEN SLACKEN ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET FROM THE N.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY GRADUALLY TURN MORE ONSHORE INTO
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BREEZY
AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THEN BUILD ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES
CENTRAL FLORIDA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS
THAN A HALF INCH.
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ALREADY OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKEECHOBEE
AND THE TREASURE COAST. LOCALIZED VISIBILITIES OF A HALF-MILE OR
LESS WILL BE POSSIBLE, QUICKLY IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 72 53 74 58 / 0 0 10 10
MCO 77 56 78 60 / 0 0 10 0
MLB 74 57 75 60 / 0 10 20 10
VRB 75 58 75 60 / 0 10 20 10
LEE 76 52 78 59 / 0 0 0 10
SFB 76 53 77 59 / 0 0 10 10
ORL 77 55 78 60 / 0 0 10 0
FPR 76 56 76 60 / 0 10 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...LEAHY
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